Michigan 84, Illinois 70 Postgame

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#576      
Brad was in damage control mode after getting spanked. His #1 worry right now isn't the regular season championship. His top concern is that this team bounces back on Tuesday and understands the ultimate goals are still ahead, which they are and that getting kicked in the rear isn't who they are. If he sits up there and laments them not reaching their goal, you risk the team tuning out a bit and one loss turns into two. Purdue is dealing with the same issue. They were preseason #1. Have to refocus and not throw your team under a bus to the public.

He's gone on record saying that winning any championship means something and raising a banner ties guys together forever. We know he believes that and that he's disappointed. If we were tied with Michigan in the standings and we won, it's a totally different comment.

Brad is doing exactly the right thing in his public messaging. He knows his guys. What he says to his team in private, we'll never know, but he knows the right buttons to push.
Has he ever been wrong a single time?
 
#577      
From the game thread:

View attachment 47900

This is really true honestly. And it’s not just a talk point — there’s some instances where if he just goes down… he’ll get the whistles others get.
Essentially this is what I’m referring to:

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Is it a foul? Maybe, maybe not. But Lipsey gets the call since he goes down.

Wagler just refuses to get knocked off balance despite complete body blows, and hence rarely gets a fair whistle.
 
#579      
Kylan has to stop with the quick threes- teams are giving that to him, but it’s killing us- just drive the ball, he’s so effective when he gets in the paint

It’s insanity for him to be shooting threes with no one else touching the ball. Andrej seems lost out there

We were very uncharacteristic tonight in a lot of ways and didn’t look like the same team- credit Michigan, maybe picking up full court the whole game had something to do with it, but we didn’t play our game at all
Roster-building lesson: you can’t have 2/3 of your backcourt / wing players be non-shooters. It’s a bit perplexing because KB was a good shooter at Arizona, and AS was mediocre at Stanford / California. Both are sub .300 this year. When teams make Keaton’s life difficult, we need more shooting outside of our frontcourt players.
 
#580      
Contrary to what I’m seeing in this thread, the frontcourt is not the difference between Illinois and a team like Michigan. Illinois’ bigs shot horrendously tonight, but that’s normally a really hard matchup for any opponent and is a different way of smothering teams.

Michigan has 4 backcourt players who shoot 38% or better from deep. We have a lottery pick who’s commanding all of the attention and 2 guys who shoot 25% from deep and aren’t living up to their defensive potential. Guards make the difference in March, and we are nowhere near deep enough there.
 
#581      
There's only 2 teams on this list with a legit shot at winning a title. Wonder where we would rank if an analytic nerd did a toughness per 100 possessions?...
The point was: if you're resistant to stats that "nerds" came up with (i.e. efficiency adjusted for venue and strength of opponent), we also lead the nation in unadjusted points per 100 possessions.

Adjusted defensive efficiency is probably a good proxy for toughness, and it correlates pretty well with the teams that have the best odds to win the NCAAT (though we're still tied for 6th in those odds, so the sky isn't falling according to those who probably know best despite how bad it feels to lose 4 of 6)
 
#582      
This is more of a me thing than a comment about the game, although it applies to last night as well…

It drives me absolutely NUTS that we NEVER double anybody. We NEVER post trap. We don’t double a guy that gets down the baseline. You get the point.

Drives me absolutely insane! That was very therapeutic. Thanks for listening.
 
#583      
Contrary to what I’m seeing in this thread, the frontcourt is not the difference between Illinois and a team like Michigan. Illinois’ bigs shot horrendously tonight, but that’s normally a really hard matchup for any opponent and is a different way of smothering teams.

Michigan has 4 backcourt players who shoot 38% or better from deep. We have a lottery pick who’s commanding all of the attention and 2 guys who shoot 25% from deep and aren’t living up to their defensive potential. Guards make the difference in March, and we are nowhere near deep enough there.
I would like to have seen Illinois to have brought back Tre White and used him in the backcourt with Wagler. Boswell seems to have slipped from last year. Maybe we should have kept Gibbs-Lawhorn as the third man in the 3 guard rotation to go with Tre and Wagler.
 
#584      
Contrary to what I’m seeing in this thread, the frontcourt is not the difference between Illinois and a team like Michigan. Illinois’ bigs shot horrendously tonight, but that’s normally a really hard matchup for any opponent and is a different way of smothering teams.

Michigan has 4 backcourt players who shoot 38% or better from deep. We have a lottery pick who’s commanding all of the attention and 2 guys who shoot 25% from deep and aren’t living up to their defensive potential. Guards make the difference in March, and we are nowhere near deep enough there.
The Michigan starting front court had 54 points and 23 rebounds.

If you want to call Davis a front court player, ours had 25 points and 15 rebounds.

Our starting backcourt had 38 points and 5 assists. Theirs had 10 points and 3 assists.

They had 42 points in the paint.

Michigan was 8 of 22 from three, we were 9 of 29.

Yes, the front court is the biggest difference. This doesn't even address the intimidation factor and the altering(not necessarily blocking) of shots.
 
#585      
They weren’t on teams good enough to get a lead like that in the first place. At least not often. The revisionist history with Trent and DW are ridiculous at this point. We all love those two but the fact is they were very limited players. They never even got past the first weekend, hell they never even had 12 game winning streak. You act they were all time greats.
Trent and DMW brought the fight to every game the toughness they showed is dearly needed on this years team. Superstars - no,
The ultimate every day guys who battled - without a doubt.

No one said anything about 12 game win streaks?

As far as not playing on good teams you must have forgotten the B1G Championship in 22, the B1G Tournament Championship in 21, and the fact they won more B1G games in the 20-21 season only to get screwed out of the Championship by an arcane rule.
 
#586      
Trent and DMW brought the fight to every game the toughness they showed is dearly needed on this years team. Superstars - no,
The ultimate every day guys who battled - without a doubt.

No one said anything about 12 game win streaks?

As far as not playing on good teams you must have forgotten the B1G Championship in 22, the B1G Tournament Championship in 21, and the fact they won more B1G games in the 20-21 season only to get screwed out of the Championship by an arcane rule.
Oh boy. Trent and DMV did bring it every game but they also lost very meaningful games. I didn't deny that. Bringing it and have the ability to win games are two very different things. Those Trent and DFW teams did bring it when we needed them to bring at the most important times.

I brought the 12 games because that particular poster compared this current team to teams Trent and DFW played on. If you don't want the 12 game winning streak brought don't compare those teams to this year's team. It's that simple.

I've been and Illinois basketball fan since the mid 80s. I haven't forgotten anything sir. Yeah that team won the championship with the same record this year's team will most likely have at 15-5. There was no elite superteam in the Big in 2022. That team barely won a tournament game and didn't have anything close to the resume of this year's team. I feel like I'm repeating myself because I KNOW I already posted all of this.

Have a good day, you aren't schooling me on anything. You are just re-telling things I already know.
 
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#587      
At least we didn't lose handily at home to Texas Tech without their star player.

While the letdown from what I thought was possible a month ago is a bummer, we're still in as good a place as any but the top 5 or so teams, and that's a really good accomplishment for the year. I hope we can cap it off with a reasonable tournament performance (at least s16 or e8 depending on the draw)
 
#591      
Wagler and Mirkovic have faded a bit, which may be due to their young age, long, brutal season, and having moved to the top of scouting reports, but are still productive. I still think they are both special, and special players can dig deep and find more of what makes them special when they or their team struggles.

Boswell and Tomi are known commodities the best teams, like Michigan, are prepared for what they can do. But, they are both experienced, and I expect them to adjust and bring more leadership...and hopefully an edge. Aside from poor outside shooting, there was a noticeable dip in our quality when Boswell sat. I know he's still getting his game legs back, but I think he should refuse to be taken out of the game.

Stojakovic and Big Z need to shake off whatever ails them. Stojakovic has too much talent and gets paid way too much for what he's been doing lately. Big Z has too much athleticism at 7'2" that BU should be losing sleep over how to get him more minutes because he's playing so well, which was the case during our winning streak, and has been nearly the opposite in the last ~5 games.

Most on this board are making good arguments for or against how good we really are. My opinion is that the jury is still deliberating. We are in relatively uncharted territory for the Underwood era because most of his teams have seemed to struggle a little in late Dec and Jan then peak in Feb/March. But, this team seemed to peak much earlier and have since descended into a valley. There is still time, and after having seen the team that reached a peak, I still have confidence that another (maybe even higher) peak is possible.

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or
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You choose. I like both.
 
#592      
The one thing I noticed with Mirk is he tries to get calls instead of playing through the physical play. I think he has the toughness if he can continue through his drives etc without trying to sell it.
 
#593      

Tough break for the kid. Thought he was okay because he came back into the game second half
As the tweet says, they are deep and talented enough to withstand this, but it puts a ton of pressure on Cadeau, as they are really thin at point guard now. Their depth is really more in wings/bigs variety.

If he gets dinged up or in foul trouble, that would cause big problems for them. A tough loss right before March.
 
#594      
Cason is a pretty significant loss for Michigan. He was playing more than 18 minutes a game and in the last 8 games he averaged 11.8 points, shot 59% from the field (29-49) and 54% from the arc (14-26). He had the highest three-point percentage on the team.
They’re still one of the top contenders, but he was a big piece of their bench, an athletic guy who could provide scoring punch.
 
#596      
This has been Keaton recently. There's been a LOT of him just dribbling, taking his time, while the shot clock runs down and we're in a bailout situation. If he's going to be a primary ball handler, getting the team into the offense and keeping it moving has to be drilled into his head. Unproductive dribbling has become a bad habit and you're right....the ball movement stops. He did that right before the half vs UCLA, then hands Mirk the ball with the shot clock running down. Mirk turns it over, we foul a shooter on a three and the rest was history.

He's a freshman and he's become the focus of the oppositions game plan. They're going right at him defensively and they're picking him up early and are putting an extreme amount of ball pressure on him offensively. He has not handled that well, but he's a freshman. It happens. Along with that, he and Boswell haven't meshed very well since Boz came back. It's been ok, but the dynamic changed. The ball sticks a lot more and it's critical that they get that turned around.
Very good post. Agree with everything u said. Occasional ball screen and 3 guys standing for 20-25 seconds. They are being real physical with Keaton especially on drives and the Big Ten refs have decided not to call anything.
 
#598      
We are 2-4 , past 6 games. Teams don't change in March and April. Was fun watching Keaton sore for a few weeks! BigZ, Ben, and Jake give it all they had. Then something changed. Oh ya, Bam and Andre got on court at same time. Smh! No coaching an No Substitutions that made or make any darn sense at all!
 
#600      
Interesting that you literally chose to crop out my reasoning in your response lol

Do you think Michigan’s offensive scheme works “when you run into legitimate top end teams” ?

Because our offense had a better offensive showing against Michigan (top end defense)… than Michigan’s offense had against Duke (top end defense).

Against Michigan:

Illinois offense scored 1.049 points per possession and 70 points.

Against Duke:

Michigan’s offense scored 1.007 points per possession and 63 points.

The “difference” is (very clearly) the defense. Duke is 1st in DEF efficiency, Michigan is 2nd, and Arizona is 3rd. Illinois is 33rd.

Michigan had the defense to keep up with Duke (and make it a close finish). We didn’t have the defense to keep up with Michigan.

Last year’s team had NINE losses by 9 or more points (some of them to very bad teams in USC and Rutgers). This year we have TWO — both likely 1seeds.

4 of our 5 B10 losses are by a combined 9 points, two of them on buzzer beaters, three of them in overtime.

Last year we were 2nd worst in the league in the 3pt percentage. This year we are 6th best.

Last year we were 5th worst in the league in turnovers per game. This year we are 3rd best.

That itself will win you lots of games, as it has:

We will finish 15-5 in league play and that team finished 12-8.

We will finish the regular season with 8 total losses and that team finished with 11.

We will be a 2 or 3seed instead of a 6seed.

If you don’t think that’s a considerable improvement, I’m not sure what to tell you. I guess your expectation was 1seed or bust, which is not how this works.
I think Michigan played very poorly against Duke and still had a chance to win that game.

Offensively they settled for outside shots and didn't pound the ball inside with their three bigs. But yes I do think their size and physicality on offense travels better but yes all offenses will have some variation from game to game but teams that dominate in the paint will be more consistent and way less susceptible to having a bad shooting game.

If I had to take a guess I would predict that Michigan wins a rematch if they run into Duke in the tournament.

I think at this point there are pretty clearly 3 elite teams in Michigan, Duke, and Arizona and all of those teams share athletic and physical frontcourts that can impose their will inside and don't force them to rely on 3's.
 
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