Either Nebraska has to go 0-2 or MSU has to go 0-2. But MSU plays Rutgers at home so that isn't happening. Our only realistic shot is Nebraska losing @UCLA and gone against Iowa. Certainly possible.
Week of 3/2 Bracketology
- Status
Either Nebraska has to go 0-2 or MSU has to go 0-2. But MSU plays Rutgers at home so that isn't happening. Our only realistic shot is Nebraska losing @UCLA and gone against Iowa. Certainly possible.
I disagree, granted, they do look at the overall but their NC schedule will be scrutinized
I didn’t say they did. My point is in response to you pumping up Nebraska’s Q1 record vs ours when their schedule non con or conference isn’t close to being the same as ours.
Correct but I think Quad 1A wins, 1A wins %, and 1A away wins are in our favor.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
There was an interesting conversation in the previous thread about how many upsets to expect in this NCAA Tournament compared to previous years, and I believe @Second place is 1st loser said something I agree with - that the first few rounds will be exceptionally wacky, but we will see a pretty chalky Elite Eight and beyond.
Anyway, it made me want to look at how many notable early upsets there were in previous years and see if there was a trend. Rather than look at individual upsets, I wanted to look at top 3 seeds that did not make it out of the First Weekend (i.e., First Round and Second Round). I could have cut it off at top 4 seeds, as they are all technically "protected" and theoretically expected to make the Sweet Sixteen. However, I think the #4 vs. #5 Second Round matchup is essentially a pick 'em in a way that #1 vs. #8/9, #2 vs. #7/10 and #3 vs. #6/11 just simply aren't.
List of Top 3 Seeds Losing in the First Weekend
2000
#1 Stanford in Second Round
#1 Arizona in Second Round
#2 Temple in Second Round
#2 Cincinnati in Second Round
#2 St. John's (NY) in Second Round
#3 Ohio State in Second Round
#3 Oklahoma in Second Round
#3 Maryland in Second Round
2001
#2 Iowa State in First Round
#2 North Carolina in Second Round
#3 Boston College in Second Round
#3 Florida in Second Round
2002
#1 Cincinnati in Second Round
#2 Alabama in Second Round
#3 Georgia in Second Round
#3 Mississippi State in Second Round
2003
#2 Wake Forest in Second Round
#2 Florida in Second Round
#3 Xavier in Second Round
2004
#1 Kentucky in Second Round
#1 Stanford in Second Round
#2 Gonzaga in Second Round
#2 Mississippi State in Second Round
#3 NC State in Second Round
2005
#3 Kansas in First Round
#2 Wake Forest in Second Round
#2 UConn in Second Round
#3 Gonzaga in Second Round
#3 Oklahoma in Second Round
2006
#3 Iowa in First Round
#2 Ohio State in Second Round
#2 Tennessee in Second Round
#3 North Carolina in Second Round
2007
#2 Wisconsin in Second Round
#3 Washington State in Second Round
2008
#2 Georgetown in Second Round
#2 Duke in Second Round
2009
N/A
2010
#3 Georgetown in First Round
#1 Kansas in Second Round
#2 Villanova in Second Round
#3 Pitt in Second Round
#3 New Mexico in Second Round
2011
#1 Pitt in Second Round
#2 Notre Dame in Second Round
#3 Syracuse in Second Round
#3 Purdue in Second Round
2012
#2 Duke in First Round
#2 Missouri in First Round
#3 Florida State in Second Round
#3 Georgetown in Second Round
2013
#2 Georgetown in First Round
#3 New Mexico in First Round
#1 Gonzaga in Second Round
2014
#1 Wichita State in First Round
#3 Duke in First Round
#2 Kansas in Second Round
#2 Villanova in Second Round
#3 Syracuse in Second Round
#3 Creighton in Second Round
2015
#3 Baylor in First Round
#3 Iowa State in First Round
#1 Villanova in Second Round
#2 Kansas in Second Round
#2 Virginia in Second Round
2016
#2 Michigan State in First Round
#3 West Virginia in First Round
#2 Xavier in Second Round
#3 Utah in Second Round
2017
#1 Villanova in Second Round
#2 Duke in Second Round
#2 Louisville in Second Round
#3 Florida State in Second Round
2018
#1 Virginia in First Round
#1 Xavier in Second Round
#2 North Carolina in Second Round
#2 Cincinnati in Second Round
#3 Michigan State in Second Round
#3 Tennessee in Second Round
2019
N/A
2021
#2 Ohio State in First Round
#3 Texas in First Round
#1 Illinois in Second Round
#2 Iowa in Second Round
#3 Kansas in Second Round
#3 West Virginia in Second Round
2022
#2 Kentucky in First Round
#1 Baylor in Second Round
#2 Auburn in Second Round
#3 Wisconsin in Second Round
#3 Tennessee in Second Round
2023
#1 Purdue in First Round
#2 Arizona in First Round
#1 Kansas in Second Round
#2 Marquette in Second Round
#3 Baylor in Second Round
2024
#3 Kentucky in First Round
#3 Baylor in Second Round
2025
#2 St. John's (NY) in Second Round
#3 Wisconsin in Second Round
#3 Iowa State in Second Round
Summary of Top 3 Seeds Losing in the First Weekend
(One Orange X = One Top 3 Seed Losing in First Round; One Blue X = One Top 3 Seed Losing in Second Round)
2000 - x x x x x x x x
2001 - x x x x
2002 - x x x x
2003 - x x x
2004 - x x x x x
2005 - x x x x x
2006 - x x x x
2007 - x x
2008 - x x
2009 -
2010 - x x x x x
2011 - x x x x
2012 - x x x x
2013 - x x x
2014 - x x x x x x
2015 - x x x x x
2016 - x x x x
2017 - x x x x
2018 - x x x x x x
2019 -
2021 - x x x x x x
2022 - x x x x x
2023 - x x x x x
2024 - x x
2025 - x x x
So, I am not sure there is some super obvious trend, at least with this one statistic ... it sort of ebbs and flows. However, this does jive with my memory from my college and immediately-post-college years that the "golden age of upsets" seems to have been from 2012 to about 2018, with two top 3 seeds going down in the First Round in 4 out of 5 years from 2012 to 2016. Then it seems we had another surge post-COVID from 2021 to 2023, and there have been fewer top teams losing early in the past couple of years. A lot of the so-called upsets from last year were games like #12 McNeese upsetting #5 Clemson (which, IIRC, like everybody and their brothers picked, lol) or #6 BYU beating #3 Wisconsin in the Second Round ... not exactly earth shattering. There was #10 Arkansas beating #2 St. John's (NY) in the Second Round, but I also recall a lot of people wondering if they were frauds.
Anyway, it made me want to look at how many notable early upsets there were in previous years and see if there was a trend. Rather than look at individual upsets, I wanted to look at top 3 seeds that did not make it out of the First Weekend (i.e., First Round and Second Round). I could have cut it off at top 4 seeds, as they are all technically "protected" and theoretically expected to make the Sweet Sixteen. However, I think the #4 vs. #5 Second Round matchup is essentially a pick 'em in a way that #1 vs. #8/9, #2 vs. #7/10 and #3 vs. #6/11 just simply aren't.
List of Top 3 Seeds Losing in the First Weekend
2000
#1 Stanford in Second Round
#1 Arizona in Second Round
#2 Temple in Second Round
#2 Cincinnati in Second Round
#2 St. John's (NY) in Second Round
#3 Ohio State in Second Round
#3 Oklahoma in Second Round
#3 Maryland in Second Round
2001
#2 Iowa State in First Round
#2 North Carolina in Second Round
#3 Boston College in Second Round
#3 Florida in Second Round
2002
#1 Cincinnati in Second Round
#2 Alabama in Second Round
#3 Georgia in Second Round
#3 Mississippi State in Second Round
2003
#2 Wake Forest in Second Round
#2 Florida in Second Round
#3 Xavier in Second Round
2004
#1 Kentucky in Second Round
#1 Stanford in Second Round
#2 Gonzaga in Second Round
#2 Mississippi State in Second Round
#3 NC State in Second Round
2005
#3 Kansas in First Round
#2 Wake Forest in Second Round
#2 UConn in Second Round
#3 Gonzaga in Second Round
#3 Oklahoma in Second Round
2006
#3 Iowa in First Round
#2 Ohio State in Second Round
#2 Tennessee in Second Round
#3 North Carolina in Second Round
2007
#2 Wisconsin in Second Round
#3 Washington State in Second Round
2008
#2 Georgetown in Second Round
#2 Duke in Second Round
2009
N/A
2010
#3 Georgetown in First Round
#1 Kansas in Second Round
#2 Villanova in Second Round
#3 Pitt in Second Round
#3 New Mexico in Second Round
2011
#1 Pitt in Second Round
#2 Notre Dame in Second Round
#3 Syracuse in Second Round
#3 Purdue in Second Round
2012
#2 Duke in First Round
#2 Missouri in First Round
#3 Florida State in Second Round
#3 Georgetown in Second Round
2013
#2 Georgetown in First Round
#3 New Mexico in First Round
#1 Gonzaga in Second Round
2014
#1 Wichita State in First Round
#3 Duke in First Round
#2 Kansas in Second Round
#2 Villanova in Second Round
#3 Syracuse in Second Round
#3 Creighton in Second Round
2015
#3 Baylor in First Round
#3 Iowa State in First Round
#1 Villanova in Second Round
#2 Kansas in Second Round
#2 Virginia in Second Round
2016
#2 Michigan State in First Round
#3 West Virginia in First Round
#2 Xavier in Second Round
#3 Utah in Second Round
2017
#1 Villanova in Second Round
#2 Duke in Second Round
#2 Louisville in Second Round
#3 Florida State in Second Round
2018
#1 Virginia in First Round
#1 Xavier in Second Round
#2 North Carolina in Second Round
#2 Cincinnati in Second Round
#3 Michigan State in Second Round
#3 Tennessee in Second Round
2019
N/A
2021
#2 Ohio State in First Round
#3 Texas in First Round
#1 Illinois in Second Round
#2 Iowa in Second Round
#3 Kansas in Second Round
#3 West Virginia in Second Round
2022
#2 Kentucky in First Round
#1 Baylor in Second Round
#2 Auburn in Second Round
#3 Wisconsin in Second Round
#3 Tennessee in Second Round
2023
#1 Purdue in First Round
#2 Arizona in First Round
#1 Kansas in Second Round
#2 Marquette in Second Round
#3 Baylor in Second Round
2024
#3 Kentucky in First Round
#3 Baylor in Second Round
2025
#2 St. John's (NY) in Second Round
#3 Wisconsin in Second Round
#3 Iowa State in Second Round
Summary of Top 3 Seeds Losing in the First Weekend
(One Orange X = One Top 3 Seed Losing in First Round; One Blue X = One Top 3 Seed Losing in Second Round)
2000 - x x x x x x x x
2001 - x x x x
2002 - x x x x
2003 - x x x
2004 - x x x x x
2005 - x x x x x
2006 - x x x x
2007 - x x
2008 - x x
2009 -
2010 - x x x x x
2011 - x x x x
2012 - x x x x
2013 - x x x
2014 - x x x x x x
2015 - x x x x x
2016 - x x x x
2017 - x x x x
2018 - x x x x x x
2019 -
2021 - x x x x x x
2022 - x x x x x
2023 - x x x x x
2024 - x x
2025 - x x x
So, I am not sure there is some super obvious trend, at least with this one statistic ... it sort of ebbs and flows. However, this does jive with my memory from my college and immediately-post-college years that the "golden age of upsets" seems to have been from 2012 to about 2018, with two top 3 seeds going down in the First Round in 4 out of 5 years from 2012 to 2016. Then it seems we had another surge post-COVID from 2021 to 2023, and there have been fewer top teams losing early in the past couple of years. A lot of the so-called upsets from last year were games like #12 McNeese upsetting #5 Clemson (which, IIRC, like everybody and their brothers picked, lol) or #6 BYU beating #3 Wisconsin in the Second Round ... not exactly earth shattering. There was #10 Arkansas beating #2 St. John's (NY) in the Second Round, but I also recall a lot of people wondering if they were frauds.
My earliest would be 1984 Illinois vs Kentucky.. regional final at Rupp. I was 10 and my father invented several swear words on that day
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Absolutely! That’s why we’re still ahead of them in the bracket matrix. Our best wins are better than their best wins.
I'm not sure I see how they are being rewarded. They are currently ahead of us in the conference standings by a game and 3 games ahead of us in overall record, but we are seeded ahead of them in bracket matrix. Same with Purdue, except Purdue is 2 games behind them in conference. Purdue is also ahead of them in bracket matrix currently. So what exactly is the reward they are supposed to be getting?
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Love these topics! I have a very hazy memory of sitting on our living room floor as a third grader and my dad watching our 2001 Elite Eight loss to Arizona. His reaction and narrative of the game sort of cemented my early impression of "Illini Basketball" as a very good and consistent program that often falls just short of truly great prizes like the Final Four.
I was too young to remember anything about the terrible officiating (I learned that much later, lol!), but I do remember my dad being super bummed. Funny enough, I don't remember our 2002 NCAA Tournament games whatsoever, and I think we were in the car driving to some soccer tournament or something when I listened to our 2003 Second Round loss to Notre Dame.My first somewhat crystal clear NCAAT memory was our 2004 Sweet Sixteen loss to Duke. We were in Anguilla for a family vacation, so while that game started really late even in the Midwest (after 9:00 pm CST), it started an hour later there! My whole family fell asleep when it got super late and it looked like we weren't going to be able to take down Duke, but I stayed up and watched the whole thing. I wrote a note and slid it under my parents' bedroom door that said something like, "We didn't end up winning, but we fought hard and I am proud of the team. I think we will just keep getting better in the summer and be really good next year and then we can win these games!" My dad kept that note and showed it to me last Christmas.
And it turns out I was right about that whole next year thing. I have been wondering about this, thanks for sharing. IMO 3 vs 6 isn't considered much of an upset either. But an 11 beating a 6 then a 3 to reach the Sweet 16 is pretty chaotic. So another way to look at it is how many 7+ seeds have reached the Sweet 16.
2000 - 5 (7, 8, 8, 10, 10)
2001 - 4 (7, 10, 11, 12)
2002 - 4 (8, 10, 11, 12)
2003 - 3 (7, 10, 12)
2004 - 4 (7, 8, 9, 10)
2005 - 3 (7, 10, 12)
2006 - 4 (7, 7, 11, 13)
2007 - 1 (7)
2008 - 4 (7, 10, 12, 12)
2009 - 1 (12)
2010 - 4 (9, 10, 11, 12)
2011 - 5 (8, 10, 11, 11, 12)
2012 - 4 (7, 10, 11, 13)
2013 - 4 (9, 12, 13, 15)
2014 - 5 (7, 8, 10, 11, 11)
2015 - 4 (7, 7, 8, 11)
2016 - 3 (7, 10, 11)
2017 - 4 (7, 7, 8, 11)
2018 - 6 (7, 7, 9, 9, 11, 11)
2019 - 1 (12)
2020 - Covid
2021 - 6 (7, 8, 11, 11, 12, 15)
2022 - 5 (8, 10, 11, 11, 15)
2023 - 4 (7, 8, 9, 15)
2024 - 1 (11)
2025 - 1 (10)
It has been back to back chalky years. If it's the same this year its officially a trend.
Side note - It is incredible how much more often a 2 seed goes out the first weekend compared to a 1 seed. 39 2 seeds have gone out compared to only 17 1 seeds. We all knew 1 seeds were pretty dominant but it doesnt make much sense that they are that much more dominant.
Decent? The schools that would have it is the top preference are likely Illinois, Iowa State, Purdue, and Kansas, all projected as 2 or 3s right now. If we stay in the top half of those 4, we are very likely to be in St. Louis. We have the easiest remaining schedule of the 3. If we win the next 2 and then on Friday in the BTT, we are very likely going to be in St. Louis (especially as that would likely be another win over Purdue). Cheer against those 3 teams for the next two weeks.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Iowa state if they lose tonight does not have a special resume and they trail us in the predictive items. Do not think they are locked in.
Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
I had a very clear hole in the drywall in the doorway from our living room to kitchen that I inflicted during that 2001 AZ game. It was an open handed smack of the wall but it hit just the "right" spot (or wrong as it were).Love these topics! I have a very hazy memory of sitting on our living room floor as a third grader and my dad watching our 2001 Elite Eight loss to Arizona. His reaction and narrative of the game sort of cemented my early impression of "Illini Basketball" as a very good and consistent program that often falls just short of truly great prizes like the Final Four.
My first somewhat crystal clear NCAAT memory was our 2004 Sweet Sixteen loss to Duke. We were in Anguilla for a family vacation, so while that game started really late even in the Midwest (after 9:00 pm CST), it started an hour later there! My whole family fell asleep when it got super late and it looked like we weren't going to be able to take down Duke, but I stayed up and watched the whole thing. I wrote a note and slid it under my parents' bedroom door that said something like, "We didn't end up winning, but we fought hard and I am proud of the team. I think we will just keep getting better in the summer and be really good next year and then we can win these games!" My dad kept that note and showed it to me last Christmas.
Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
The last 2 years the only real crazy one that I recall in round 1 was Oakland beating Kentucky. The other upsets were kind of upsets in name only. I do fear the NIL is going to so drastically further the gap between the haves and have nots that the upsets become rarer by the year.
Pre the transfer portal & NIL induced year to year movement, a lot of the classic upsets were fueled by a mid major that 1 just outright DUDE on the team. Think Steph Curry at Davidson. A guy like that could win a game or 2 or occasionally 3 basically on his own. Often times they were guys that weren't super well known but like a McNeese State would have 1 NBA caliber guy on the roster & he would just go off. Now those kind of guys have transferred after their freshman year to a high major school so the mid majors don't have the same level of talent on the roster.
I'm sure some of it is just random cyclical timing as the chart kind of shows but we are in the early days of the wild wild west of transfer & NIL.
I think MSU likely jumps up to the 2 seed when all is said and done. They likely only lose to UM and have a pretty good shot to beat Nebraska in the 2/3 semis at the BTT.
We’ll likely have a TOUGH Sweet 16 matchup vs. Florida or Houston or Iowa State. Doubt committee will set up a Sweet 16 vs. another B1G team.
If we beat Michigan in the BTT semis, then we rightfully get a lower 2 seed. I don’t really see that happening.
As things stand, our second weekend will be a murderer’s row of a FL/UH/IAST in the S16 and one of Duke/Zona/UConn in the E8. And if we miraculously got through that we’ll have another 1 seed in the F4 and Michigan in the final.
All to say, it could arguably be the most brutal path to a title in recent memory.
- - -
Hope we make the second weekend. That’s my success bar for this season based on the roster we have.
We’ll likely have a TOUGH Sweet 16 matchup vs. Florida or Houston or Iowa State. Doubt committee will set up a Sweet 16 vs. another B1G team.
If we beat Michigan in the BTT semis, then we rightfully get a lower 2 seed. I don’t really see that happening.
As things stand, our second weekend will be a murderer’s row of a FL/UH/IAST in the S16 and one of Duke/Zona/UConn in the E8. And if we miraculously got through that we’ll have another 1 seed in the F4 and Michigan in the final.
All to say, it could arguably be the most brutal path to a title in recent memory.
- - -
Hope we make the second weekend. That’s my success bar for this season based on the roster we have.
First Illinois game I ever attended. Second round of 2003 tournament vs Notre Dame. A loss sadly.
They had an open practice the day before where I met Dee and got his autograph. A reporter from the Gazette was there getting quotes from fans to gage sentiment and whatnot. And I ended up being quoted in the paper the next day. Cool experience for a 12 year old.
Iowa St losing will help us stay on the 2 line. The way I see it unless huge upsets happen, it’s Duke, Michigan, AZ and Florida on the 1 Line, Houston, MSU, UConn and us on the 2 Line. Iowa St, KU, Nebraska and Virginia on the 3 Line and Tech, BYU, Gonzaga and Purdue on the 4 Line.
3 wins away from securing a 2 seed.
Worst case scenario but plausible.
This is incorrect. MSU would finish on 5 conference losses and when the H2H tiebreaker over us.
Even if Nebraska loses to UCLA to pick up their 5th conference loss, they have the have the tiebreaker over us due to beating MSU.
The only way for us to get a 2 or 3 seed in the BTT is for Nebraska to lose out or MSU to lose out.
- - -
Nebraska is unlikely to lose at home to Iowa. MSU is unlikely to lose at home to Rutgers.
We likely play Purdue in BTT 4/5 game.
- - -
We are currently a low 2 seed / high 3 seed. Other teams can move up or down around us. We need to beat Purdue in the BTT to absolutely guarantee we don’t drop to a 4 seed. I don’t think we need that win to get a 3 seed. But if other current 3 or 4 seeds finish the season hot we invite chaos.
Last edited:
Either MSU or Nebraska has to lose out for us to move off the 4 line. Below is the tie breaker explanation if Nebraska were to lose only at UCLA, and MSU only lost to Michigan.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Exactly what I'm seeing!
I like what it showed on the home page brackets. The four teams in the west we can play against. We play better away from home. Our alumni and fans will show up.
- Status