Week of 3/2 Games Thread

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#302      
HereSoIDontGetFined
wc_illini said:
Miami (OH) goes to OT

The announcer said all the major teams refused to play Miami because they want to pad their metrics by playing cupcakes. If that were true (it shouldn't be, since those metrics are adjusted for opponent quality, and this isn't football, where a single loss early in the year can kill your season), then Miami should have been able to pad their own metrics playing cupcakes. But they haven't.

He was saying all this to argue that the committee should ignore their strength of schedule since they tried to do better. But the point of all the ranking systems is to compare teams with different schedules, so I don't see the need to bring in subjective judgment either way. The rankings are what they are. The only question is whether the committee should favor resume rankings or efficiency rankings. I think most of us prefer the latter this year (I do every year).
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At the same time, it's really hard to win 31 basketball games in a row. Miami is clearly in a class above their conference.
 
#303      
illinifan1987
RockfordIllini said:
Honestly at this point I’m not sure if we would prefer Wisconsin or Purdue get the 5 seed. We’ve beaten Purdue but not Wisconsin and I think both pose some matchup challenges.

Looking like Purdue is going to catch Wisconsin without Winter, yet another break for them. Outside of us catching USC when CBM was out and arenas was under the weather, we haven’t caught any breaks like that.

But take care of Maryland and we clinch the 4 seed and at worst finish tied for 3rd, likely second as Michigan will likely had Sparty a 5th loss. Maybe not as many banners as we’d like but we’ve consistently been a top3-5 program in the BIG since 2020. Pretty good run.
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When does normalcy overtake a run? Let's get to that point first (y)
 
#304      
illinifan1987
I think everyone in the top 10 besides Yaxel has probably “underperformed” to expectations. That is a wild find
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Keaton would like to say "hello". You know...the best Freshman we've ever had in our program before? I'll just go back to posting this GIF..
Tongue Goat GIF

Edit: I just noticed what you were talking about. Disregard everything but the GIF (y)
 
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#306      
OrangeBlue98
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Honestly feel like stirtz has gone from a guy who was a lotto pick to maybe now a backend first round guy.

But I agree “underperform” for him is harsh
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Given the profile of player the NBA picks in the lottery, I’ve always thought Stirtz would be picked more where TSJ was picked a couple of years ago. He’s a really good player, and whatever team he lands with will be lucky to have him. But I’ve never really seen him as a top guy you can build a team around, which in what the lottery guys are projected to be by the teams who pick them.

Do not get me wrong-I think he’s going to have a really good NBA career and be a valuable player. I just dont think he’s “that guy”.
 
#307      
Justan opinion
Indiana is the opposite, but not as extreme: ~52 by resume, ~34 by efficiency. Cincy is similar, but a bit worse in both. So I guess they should both be out. I don't care as much about selection, since we're talking about teams that are so unlikely to go far, and the autobids already get a lot of bad teams in.

But seeding really needs to be by efficiency rankings (or some equivalent for predicted performance). No more low-seeded Loyolas.
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That is a small problem with efficiency rankings. There are outliers. Loyola was not under seeded. They were an ok team that outplayed and out coached the Illini. They showed their greatness by getting smoked by a 12 seed the next game. Unless Oregon St was vastly under seeded.
 
#308      
Illini in Indiana
Piotyr said:
Miami OH's WAB is 30th, well above the fold. They should get in the tournament.

Miami OH's KP is 90th and BT is 88th. They should be a 12 seed.

However, if the committee wants to set up a Miami-Miami showdown in an 8-9 or 7-10 slot, I will allow it.
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If Miami OH isn't in the dance (lose in their tourney), then it will be a shame. Leave the Indiana, SMU, Auburn, Texas, .... out! They are D1 and they just keep winning.
At a 12 seed playing a 5 seed ( St John, Arkansas, ....) I'll be watching and rooting big for them. I bet most 5 seeds don't want to see them.
 
#311      
OrangeBlue98
Illini in Indiana said:
If Miami OH isn't in the dance (lose in their tourney), then it will be a shame. Leave the Indiana, SMU, Auburn, Texas, .... out! They are D1 and they just keep winning.
At a 12 seed playing a 5 seed ( St John, Arkansas, ....) I'll be watching and rooting big for them. I bet most 5 seeds don't want to see them.
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It will be a pretty interesting case study to see if the tourney is meant to be a money grab or a reasonably legitimate competitive experience.

We can all probably think of more teams besides the ones mentioned here that shouldn't be in the tournament to leave Miami (OH) out if they don't secure the MAC's automatic bid. If a team like IU gets in over a team like Miami, then I become even more convinced that the tournament is more about eyeballs and ad revenue than it is about being an actual competitive tournament.

I don't really care what the analytics say. If you're something like 33-1 (which I believe is what Miami would be if they lose in the MAC tournament final), you should absolutely be in over a Big 12 or ACC bubble team.
 
#312      
TheFlyingIllini1317
So rooting for Purdue and Iowa this weekend, is that the general consensus?

Seems like Sunday's slate is a lot more intriguing, but will root for BYU tonight to help our two seed chances.
 
#314      
wc_illini
OrangeBlue98 said:
It will be a pretty interesting case study to see if the tourney is meant to be a money grab or a reasonably legitimate competitive experience.

We can all probably think of more teams besides the ones mentioned here that shouldn't be in the tournament to leave Miami (OH) out if they don't secure the MAC's automatic bid. If a team like IU gets in over a team like Miami, then I become even more convinced that the tournament is more about eyeballs and ad revenue than it is about being an actual competitive tournament.

I don't really care what the analytics say. If you're something like 33-1 (which I believe is what Miami would be if they lose in the MAC tournament final), you should absolutely be in over a Big 12 or ACC bubble team.
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If you want an actual competitive tournament, then efficiency rankings should be your priority. MOH is 3 wins above the bubble, and they're #9 in KenPom luck. They're just a few possessions away from having a handful of very bad losses. (Edit: Indiana is in the mid 30s in efficiency metrics. You can't say it's just for money for them to get a spot.)

The valid reasons to include Miami are: you think margin of victory has no value, or you're afraid valuing margin of victory will lead to bad sportsmanship, or you want the feel-good story.

The irony to my of prioritizing resume metrics like WAB is that those actually do discourage good teams from agreeing to play against non-majors. At least with efficiency metrics, you have a chance to blow them away, but with WAB, you have small upside and big downside.
 
#315      
Fighter of the Nightman
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Update after last night:

Monday, March 2
#3 Iowa State loses at #1 Arizona (ISU is currently the top #3 seed and a real threat to move up)

Tuesday, March 3
#2 Florida loses vs. Mississippi State (this was never likely, lol)
#2 Illinois wins vs. Oregon
#3 Nebraska loses at UCLA (an Iowa win plus Illini win on Sunday now gets us the #3 seed in the BTT, plus Huskers are St. Louis competition)
#3 Texas Tech loses vs. TCU (TTU probably wouldn't have passed us, but you never know!)
#4 Kansas loses at Arizona State (this was REALLY helpful, as they were creeping up and could prefer St. Louis)
#4 Alabama loses at Georgia
#4 Virginia loses vs. Wake Forest (not that big of a deal, as UVA isn't too close to getting above the #4 line)

Wednesday, March 4
#2 Houston loses vs. Baylor
#3 Purdue loses at Northwestern

Thursday, March 5
#2 Michigan State loses vs. Rutgers (lol)

Friday, March 6
N/A

Saturday, March 7
#1 UConn wins at Marquette (we want them to remain a #1 seed)
#2 Florida loses at Kentucky (this one is HUGE if we have any hope of being the first #2)
#2 Houston loses vs. Oklahoma State
#3 Iowa State loses to Arizona State (keep that train rollin', ASU!!)
#3 Purdue loses vs. Wisconsin
#3 Texas Tech loses at BYU (this is less important after they already lost to ASU)
#4 Kansas loses to Kansas State
#4 Alabama loses vs. Auburn
#4 Virginia loses to Virginia Tech

Sunday, March 8
#1 Michigan wins vs. #2 Michigan State (assuming MSU beats Rutgers, this is huge to keep them definitively below us)
#2 Illinois wins at Maryland
#3 Nebraska loses vs. Iowa (this is the final result that gets us out of the #4 seed in the BTT, given Nebraska's earlier loss to UCLA)

Probably will not see much movement until Saturday, but then prepare yourselves for a roller coaster of a weekend. With that said, I will be keeping my eye on that Rutgers/MSU game and maintaining a fool's hope that the Scarlet Knights can shock the world!!
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Updated going into a full day of action on Saturday! Here is the Saturday slate of games we might care about in a schedule order:

11:00 am on CBS - Oklahoma State at #2 Houston
11:00 am on The CW - Virginia Tech at #4 Virginia
11:30 am on FOX - #1 UConn at Marquette
1:00 pm on CBS - Kansas State at #4 Kansas
1:00 pm on FS1 - Arizona State at #3 Iowa State
3:00 pm on CBS - Wisconsin at #3 Purdue
3:00 pm on ESPN - #2 Florida at Kentucky
7:30 pm on ESPN - Auburn at #4 Alabama
9:30 pm on ESPN - #3 Texas Tech at BYU

Bonus as a native Peorian whose dad got his MBA at Bradley!
5:00 pm on CBSSN - Murray State vs. Bradley in ARCH MADNESS

Monday, March 2
#3 Iowa State loses at #1 Arizona (ISU is currently the top #3 seed and a real threat to move up)

Tuesday, March 3
#2 Florida loses vs. Mississippi State (this was never likely, lol)
#2 Illinois wins vs. Oregon
#3 Nebraska loses at UCLA (an Iowa win plus Illini win on Sunday now gets us the #3 seed in the BTT, plus Huskers are St. Louis competition)
#3 Texas Tech loses vs. TCU (TTU probably wouldn't have passed us, but you never know!)
#4 Kansas loses at Arizona State (this was REALLY helpful, as they were creeping up and could prefer St. Louis)
#4 Alabama loses at Georgia
#4 Virginia loses vs. Wake Forest (not that big of a deal, as UVA isn't too close to getting above the #4 line)

Wednesday, March 4
#2 Houston loses vs. Baylor
#3 Purdue loses at Northwestern

Thursday, March 5
#2 Michigan State loses vs. Rutgers

Friday, March 6
N/A

Saturday, March 7
#1 UConn wins at Marquette (we want them to remain a #1 seed)
#2 Florida loses at Kentucky (this one is HUGE if we have any hope of being the first #2)
#2 Houston loses vs. Oklahoma State
#3 Iowa State loses to Arizona State (keep that train rollin', ASU!!)
#3 Purdue loses vs. Wisconsin
#3 Texas Tech loses at BYU (this is less important after they already lost to ASU)
#4 Kansas loses to Kansas State
#4 Alabama loses vs. Auburn
#4 Virginia loses to Virginia Tech

Sunday, March 8
#1 Michigan wins vs. #2 Michigan State (assuming MSU beats Rutgers, this is huge to keep them definitively below us)
#2 Illinois wins at Maryland
#3 Nebraska loses vs. Iowa (this is the final result that gets us out of the #4 seed in the BTT, given Nebraska's earlier loss to UCLA)

Probably will not see much movement until Saturday, but then prepare yourselves for a roller coaster of a weekend. With that said, I will be keeping my eye on that Rutgers/MSU game and maintaining a fool's hope that the Scarlet Knights can shock the world!!
 
#316      
TheChief4Life
Love your breakdown because it makes it easy to know who to root for. Quick question about these four games:
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Saturday, March 7
#3 Texas Tech loses at BYU (this is less important after they already lost to ASU)
#4 Kansas loses to Kansas State
#4 Alabama loses vs. Auburn
#4 Virginia loses to Virginia Tech
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Why in reality do we care about any of these? If Illinois wins Sunday, there's nothing these teams can do that affect anything involving Illinois' seeding in the Bracket I would assume. If Illinois loses Sunday, nothing these teams do will matter anyway because Illinois will deserve its fate.

Correct me if I'm misunderstanding. Thanks!
 
#317      
EyeoftheIllini
Piotyr said:
First auto bid is punched tonight, as the OVC final between Tennessee State and Morehead State (both finished tied for 1st in OVC, though UT Martin had the highest NET in the conference) at 8 CST on ESPN 2.
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Other than the actual NCAAT, the small and mid major tournaments are my favorite part of college basketball. I’ll watch the Illini games in BTT, but probably not that much more of the P4 tourneys. But I try to catch as many of the other conference tournaments as I can.
 
#318      
lstewart53x3
OrangeBlue98 said:
It will be a pretty interesting case study to see if the tourney is meant to be a money grab or a reasonably legitimate competitive experience.

We can all probably think of more teams besides the ones mentioned here that shouldn't be in the tournament to leave Miami (OH) out if they don't secure the MAC's automatic bid. If a team like IU gets in over a team like Miami, then I become even more convinced that the tournament is more about eyeballs and ad revenue than it is about being an actual competitive tournament.

I don't really care what the analytics say. If you're something like 33-1 (which I believe is what Miami would be if they lose in the MAC tournament final), you should absolutely be in over a Big 12 or ACC bubble team.
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Huh? You want to select the terrible team over the good team to make the tournament more competitive?
 
#319      
OrangeBlue98
lstewart53x3 said:
Huh? You want to select the terrible team over the good team to make the tournament more competitive?
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When did I say that?

I said put the 33-1 team in over the 20-12 team.

That’s not hard to understand. And we have to stop blindly relying on these computer programs to tell us what to think.
 
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#321      
OrangeBlue98
wc_illini said:
If you want an actual competitive tournament, then efficiency rankings should be your priority. MOH is 3 wins above the bubble, and they're #9 in KenPom luck. They're just a few possessions away from having a handful of very bad losses. (Edit: Indiana is in the mid 30s in efficiency metrics. You can't say it's just for money for them to get a spot.)

The valid reasons to include Miami are: you think margin of victory has no value, or you're afraid valuing margin of victory will lead to bad sportsmanship, or you want the feel-good story.

The irony to my of prioritizing resume metrics like WAB is that those actually do discourage good teams from agreeing to play against non-majors. At least with efficiency metrics, you have a chance to blow them away, but with WAB, you have small upside and big downside.
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I thought the goal was to win games, not game a computer program. If we pick some mid-table Power 4 team over a team that went 33-1, then the tournament is a ratings event to get as many “name” programs.

I can’t believe the finance guy is the one saying just don’t blindly what the computer says, but here we are.
 
#324      
NarrowJ
OrangeBlue98 said:
When did I say that?

I said put the 33-1 team in over the 20-12 team.

That’s not hard to understand. And we have to stop blindly relying on these computer programs to tell us what to think.
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The analytics/metrics are far better at determining what teams are good what teams aren’t than basic human evaluation is. It’s why it exists. It can consider millions of outcomes at once, aggregate them all, and output a nice, easy to understand portrait of the strength of each team without bias or loss of context. If Indiana would play Miami OH on a neutral court they’d likely be favored by 10 points.
 
#325      
Fighter of the Nightman
TheChief4Life said:
Love your breakdown because it makes it easy to know who to root for. Quick question about these four games:

Why in reality do we care about any of these? If Illinois wins Sunday, there's nothing these teams can do that affect anything involving Illinois' seeding in the Bracket I would assume. If Illinois loses Sunday, nothing these teams do will matter anyway because Illinois will deserve its fate.

Correct me if I'm misunderstanding. Thanks!
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You are correct, it's just nice to not have anyone even close to taking our spot in the pecking order!

Also my mistake, Houston plays AT Oklahoma State.
 
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