Illinois #9 in 3/9 AP Poll

[wc_illini]

Great comparisons. Our 5-game average is 92. Before this, the highest it had been at the end of the regular season in the Underwood era was 91.6 in 2024

That means we are performing over the last 5 like a team with an avg of .92 barthag, or #22 Wisconsin. That 80 really dragging us down

No one is suggesting averaging the scores is a valid measure. I'm glad you've come around

Sure, a more valid measure is the correct BARTHAG (or just avg AdjO/D) over a range of games. In that case, our last 5 gives:
133.4/100.8 (+32.6), .9619

That's good for #6 over that span (as NarrowJ keeps reminding us) and we'd still be #6 if it were our full-season BARTHAG. That's nowhere close to #22 Wisconsin.

As for comparing to our previous best Underwood seasons:
2024:
129.9/103.8 (+26.1), .9289

2021:
116.8/89.0 (+27.8), .9581

So the numbers change around a bit, but it's still the best finish to a regular season in the Underwood era, and good for #6 in the country.

 

[Illini2010-11]

Nebraska has lost 3 times including a 20 point loss to UCLA and a loss at home to Iowa.

 

[wc_illini]

I thought about this and wonder where everyone else is at. Are we satisfied or disappointed with the season at this point?

On the one hand, I think we lost a few games we should have won and didn’t play totally up to our potential. On the other hand, we were ranked, what, 17 at the start of the season? And we ended up considerably higher.

Extremely satisfied at this point. Could we have finished even better? Yes. But we don't really know the extent of the illnesses and nagging injuries, and as I've been trying to say with my other posts, the metrics on these last games are still very good.

 

[New Creation]

Sure but how many other teams are "playing as well" as we were then? Since that loss we've dropped 3 games. In that same time span:

Iowa St. has lost 4 times.

Kansas has lost 4 times.

Houston has lost 3 times.

UConn has lost to Creighton and Marquette.

Nebraska has lost 3 times including a 20 point loss to UCLA and a loss at home to Iowa.

MSU lost twice, one of which was a 21 point loss to Wisconsin (they also lost to Minnesot right before they beat us).

UVA lost to a bad FSU team and lost by 26 to Duke, and scraped and Wake Forest and VT teams.

Gonzaga has played nobody and still found ways to drop games.

Purdue has lost 4 times, 3 of them at home.

Texas Tech just lost their last 2 games, and 3 games totals since our MSU loss, none of them vs a ranked opponent.

So really, applying the standard you're putting on Illinois, is anyone outside of the 4 likely 1-seeds actually "playing well" since early February?

The fact is there are exactly 4 teams that are hot right now, and Florida hasn't really been tested and AZ has looked vulnerable at times. At least 4 teams outside that top 4, i.e. teams that haven't been playing nearly as well as we were during that winning streak, are going to make the Elite Eight and at least 12 such teams are going to make the Sweet 16.

Pretty sure Nebraska won in OT at home to Iowa... They lost AT IOWA on Feb 18th. Lost to Purdue, AT Iowa and At UCLA

But point understood.

 

[wc_illini]

They got the location wrong, but Nebraska is #38 in the country since our MSU loss. We're #5.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Man I put a lot of info in that post, on my phone, sitting in my driveway in my car after getting home. If that's the only mistake I made I'll call that a win.

 

[TheodoreRex]

They didn't say the entire season would be a massive disappointment lol

Its two different things to say it would be disappointing to lose in the 1st weekend versus to say the entire season was a massive disappointment

But why didn't you reference the segment where they both said they still think Illinois is a title contender though?

I genuinely am not sure I follow your question? I'm not sure exactly what it has to do with them saying Sweet 16 should be an expectation?

I probably agree with Trotter that this season has been a B+/A-, and I'd personally say if we make the Sweet 16, I'd move the season into an A.

But, if we get bounced in the first weekend, I'd go from B+/A- to probably a C to C+. Post season success absolutely matters

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

Yup, it's all about the timing.

Ayo team: came on strongest at the end of the year, many games of which were without their best player
TSJ team: redemption tour after exoneration, again more towards the end of the season
This year: all-world in January and a .500 team in February

Also of note is that we won the BTT tournament in the first two above. Despite some here being of the "NCAAs or bust" thinking, many others put more relative value on those banners.

Still a great year, enjoy it by all means. Keaton is a generational 'diamond in the rough' find and the Balkan experience has been a blast. We have the #1 offense in the country and at worst a 3 seed in the tournament (probably a 2).

But I do understand what the what-might-have-been folks are feeling.

Just want to highlight, TSJ coming on strong took off in the big ten tournament - which obviously this team hasn’t played yet, so I’m giving it time (and I’m not saying you specifically aren’t or that most fans aren’t giving it more time)

In fact, we had some growing pains when he came back initially. He had a few strong games (Minnesota and Wisconsin) but our big games against msu and Purdue to end the year, he actually wasn’t very good. I think we were feeling kinda bummed after the regular season Purdue finale tbh.

Note: This board was some dark times after that 105-97 home win against Minnesota. Half the board jumped ship at the outrage of that win.

 

[blackdog]

I think the fact that we can even have this debate is a big part of why our home court has sucked this year. Too big a chunk of the fanbase doesn't get excited unless we are winning against a top 10 team. Anything else is expected and doesn't deserve recognition. And yes this post is 100% a straw man but there's definitely a connection.

 

[NarrowJ]

I genuinely am not sure I follow your question? I'm not sure exactly what it has to do with them saying Sweet 16 should be an expectation?

I probably agree with Trotter that this season has been a B+/A-, and I'd personally say if we make the Sweet 16, I'd move the season into an A.

But, if we get bounced in the first weekend, I'd go from B+/A- to probably a C to C+. Post season success absolutely matters

The good thing is we’re all free to decide how bad we want it to be. You could even give it an F minus if you wanted to!

 

[FloridaMan]

Sure but how many other teams are "playing as well" as we were then? Since that loss we've dropped 3 games. In that same time span:

Iowa St. has lost 4 times.

Kansas has lost 4 times.

Houston has lost 3 times.

UConn has lost to Creighton and Marquette.

Nebraska has lost 3 times including a 20 point loss to UCLA and a loss at home to Iowa.

MSU lost twice, one of which was a 21 point loss to Wisconsin (they also lost to Minnesot right before they beat us).

UVA lost to a bad FSU team and lost by 26 to Duke, and scraped and Wake Forest and VT teams.

Gonzaga has played nobody and still found ways to drop games.

Purdue has lost 4 times, 3 of them at home.

Texas Tech just lost their last 2 games, and 3 games totals since our MSU loss, none of them vs a ranked opponent.

So really, applying the standard you're putting on Illinois, is anyone outside of the 4 likely 1-seeds actually "playing well" since early February?

The fact is there are exactly 4 teams that are hot right now, and Florida hasn't really been tested and AZ has looked vulnerable at times. At least 4 teams outside that top 4, i.e. teams that haven't been playing nearly as well as we were during that winning streak, are going to make the Elite Eight and at least 12 such teams are going to make the Sweet 16.

I mean I didn't personally see all of those games to determine if those teams were playing well in the losses or not. I don't think playing well is based strictly on wins and losses. A team can play its absolute best basketball and still lose a game. Conversely, a team can play terribly by its own standards and still win.

I have watched every one of our games though. Hopefully, with a week's rest this week the team can heal up some nagging injuries, put the grind of the league season behind and reset mentally, and get prepared for a stretch run where all players are playing at their highest possible level. That is what it will take to get to the second weekend and hopefully beyond after selection Sunday.

All this said, and in response to the broader discussion of the satisfaction of the season as a whole, it has been another great season. The staff and players put themselves in a fantastic position to make a long run in the tournament. As a fan, it is greatly appreciated that we are the winningest B10 team in the 2020's. That means a lot!

It also sets expectations high. THIS IS A GOOD THING! For fans to express that it will disappointing to not get out of the first weekend is natural. I guarantee if that happens that the coaches and players will be disappointed. Hopefully that is a moot point in a few weeks.

 

[illiniguy24]

The thing is, the fan discontent this season started during the 12 game win streak.

Some of the most brutal post game threads of the season were after the 8 point win @ Penn St and the 26 point win against Rutgers, where we “lost the second half by 2 points”.

And of course the worst post game thread of the entire season was immediately before the 12 game win streak, the 3 point buzzer beater loss to Nebraska.

This team was pre-season #17 in the AP poll. Yet finished the season #9 in the very same poll and somehow did not live up to fan expectations.

Hand up, I was down bad and went on a serious rant about Brad & Co and our expectations as a program. The team responded beyond expectations. It’s no doubt been an awesome regular season even with the heart breaking OT losses.

Let not pretend like we don’t have some heart breakers every season. The fact of the matter is we don’t have a single “bad loss” this year and that deserves kudos. There is a reason we finished top 10

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Sure but how many other teams are "playing as well" as we were then? Since that loss we've dropped 3 games. In that same time span:

Iowa St. has lost 4 times.

Kansas has lost 4 times.

Houston has lost 3 times.

UConn has lost to Creighton and Marquette.

Nebraska has lost 3 times including a 20 point loss to UCLA and a loss at home to Iowa.

MSU lost twice, one of which was a 21 point loss to Wisconsin (they also lost to Minnesot right before they beat us).

UVA lost to a bad FSU team and lost by 26 to Duke, and scraped and Wake Forest and VT teams.

Gonzaga has played nobody and still found ways to drop games.

Purdue has lost 4 times, 3 of them at home.

Texas Tech just lost their last 2 games, and 3 games totals since our MSU loss, none of them vs a ranked opponent.

So really, applying the standard you're putting on Illinois, is anyone outside of the 4 likely 1-seeds actually "playing well" since early February?

The fact is there are exactly 4 teams that are hot right now, and Florida hasn't really been tested and AZ has looked vulnerable at times. At least 4 teams outside that top 4, i.e. teams that haven't been playing nearly as well as we were during that winning streak, are going to make the Elite Eight and at least 12 such teams are going to make the Sweet 16.

Phenomenal post

 

[Illini92and96]

Unsure if he's on a narrow viewport (smartphone), but this is what it looks like when I view it:

View attachment 48132

That visual isn't quite so pronounced. What we're talking about is going from 95.8 to 92.0 which is a 4.05% drop

User name checks out.......

 

[illiniguy24]

Hand up, I was down bad and went on a serious rant about Brad & Co and our expectations as a program. The team responded beyond expectations. It’s no doubt been an awesome regular season even with the heart breaking OT losses.

Let not pretend like we don’t have some heart breakers every season. The fact of the matter is we don’t have a single “bad loss” this year and that deserves kudos. There is a reason we finished top 10

Morning coffee clearly didn’t hit yet.

First sentence was supposed to say “after the Nebraska game” at the end

**Let’s

 

[Weatherspoon1]

Sure but how many other teams are "playing as well" as we were then? Since that loss we've dropped 3 games. In that same time span:

Iowa St. has lost 4 times.

Kansas has lost 4 times.

Houston has lost 3 times.

UConn has lost to Creighton and Marquette.

Nebraska has lost 3 times including a 20 point loss to UCLA and a loss at home to Iowa.

MSU lost twice, one of which was a 21 point loss to Wisconsin (they also lost to Minnesot right before they beat us).

UVA lost to a bad FSU team and lost by 26 to Duke, and scraped and Wake Forest and VT teams.

Gonzaga has played nobody and still found ways to drop games.

Purdue has lost 4 times, 3 of them at home.

Texas Tech just lost their last 2 games, and 3 games totals since our MSU loss, none of them vs a ranked opponent.

So really, applying the standard you're putting on Illinois, is anyone outside of the 4 likely 1-seeds actually "playing well" since early February?

The fact is there are exactly 4 teams that are hot right now, and Florida hasn't really been tested and AZ has looked vulnerable at times. At least 4 teams outside that top 4, i.e. teams that haven't been playing nearly as well as we were during that winning streak, are going to make the Elite Eight and at least 12 such teams are going to make the Sweet 16.

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Was seeing a lot of talk about this earlier when it comes to Nebraska. The question was similar - if Nebby gets beat in the first round, is the season a failure? And the answer from their fans was no, because this season is already their best season ever as a program.

Nebraska is a unique example in this situation because they’ve never won an NCAA tournament game. If, after the season they’ve had, they don’t get over that otherwise easy hump, I’m pretty sure a majority of Cornhusker fans would consider the season an ultimate failure.

 

[ChiefGritty]

The thing is, the fan discontent this season started during the 12 game win streak.

Some of the most brutal post game threads of the season were after the 8 point win @ Penn St and the 26 point win against Rutgers, where we “lost the second half by 2 points”.

And of course the worst post game thread of the entire season was immediately before the 12 game win streak, the 3 point buzzer beater loss to Nebraska.

This team was pre-season #17 in the AP poll. Yet finished the season #9 in the very same poll and somehow did not live up to fan expectations.

A lot of folks here found it more emotionally satisfying and gave them more appreciation for the coaching staff to be a bad sub-bubble team with multi-year romance novel quests for high school recruits than to be a top 10 team with national title aspirations.

On some level I can comprehend that, things are always more perfect in your imagination than reality and some folks here just really love the online roller coaster of recruiting, but I don't share it at all.

"Winningest team the Big Ten in the last seven years" is everything I ever dreamed of.

 

[EmpoweredIllini]

Just want to highlight, TSJ coming on strong took off in the big ten tournament - which obviously this team hasn’t played yet, so I’m giving it time (and I’m not saying you specifically aren’t or that most fans aren’t giving it more time)

In fact, we had some growing pains when he came back initially. He had a few strong games (Minnesota and Wisconsin) but our big games against msu and Purdue to end the year, he actually wasn’t very good. I think we were feeling kinda bummed after the regular season Purdue finale tbh.

Note: This board was some dark times after that 105-97 home win against Minnesota. Half the board jumped ship at the outrage of that win.

yah that e8 team with tsj was not playing well at all leading into the b1g tourney

lost at penn state (horrible team) then won 3 single digit games vs 2 NIT teams and a wisky team that lost to james madison by 12 in the 1st rd, then lost at home to purdue and closed out reg season with rather unconvincing win vs iowa (another NIT team)

 

[illiniguy24]

Sure but how many other teams are "playing as well" as we were then? Since that loss we've dropped 3 games. In that same time span:

Iowa St. has lost 4 times.

Kansas has lost 4 times.

Houston has lost 3 times.

UConn has lost to Creighton and Marquette.

Nebraska has lost 3 times including a 20 point loss to UCLA and a loss at home to Iowa.

MSU lost twice, one of which was a 21 point loss to Wisconsin (they also lost to Minnesot right before they beat us).

UVA lost to a bad FSU team and lost by 26 to Duke, and scraped and Wake Forest and VT teams.

Gonzaga has played nobody and still found ways to drop games.

Purdue has lost 4 times, 3 of them at home.

Texas Tech just lost their last 2 games, and 3 games totals since our MSU loss, none of them vs a ranked opponent.

So really, applying the standard you're putting on Illinois, is anyone outside of the 4 likely 1-seeds actually "playing well" since early February?

The fact is there are exactly 4 teams that are hot right now, and Florida hasn't really been tested and AZ has looked vulnerable at times. At least 4 teams outside that top 4, i.e. teams that haven't been playing nearly as well as we were during that winning streak, are going to make the Elite Eight and at least 12 such teams are going to make the Sweet 16.

 

[illini55]

That part of his methodology is just the Bill James Pythagorean Expectation like below, but with an exponent of 11.5 and using AdjO & AdjD:
View attachment 48149

As you get closer to 100%, it gets very non-linear: AdjO/D of 120/100 gives 89%, 130/100 gives 95%, 140/100 gives 98%, 150/100 gives 99%.

The correct way to compute your rating for a set of games is to average your AdjO & D first, then apply the above. If you average your game scores, you de-emphasize your best games, since you only get a small boost for extreme scoring margins.

This hurt my head and made my eyes glaze over. Yikes!

Can we start a new thread that contains only posts that mere mortals cannot understand?

 

[fatboyslim]

yah that e8 team with tsj was not playing well at all leading into the b1g tourney

lost at penn state (horrible team) then won 3 single digit games vs 2 NIT teams and a wisky team that lost to james madison by 12 in the 1st rd, then lost at home to purdue and closed out reg season with rather unconvincing win vs iowa (another NIT team)

Unconvincing win? That Iowa team was playing to get in the tournament at that point. They were a bubble team at that point. We went into an always tough place to play and led from beginning to end by double digits. There was nothing unconvincing about that win.

 

[Lee]

That part of his methodology is just the Bill James Pythagorean Expectation like below, but with an exponent of 11.5 and using AdjO & AdjD:
View attachment 48149

As you get closer to 100%, it gets very non-linear: AdjO/D of 120/100 gives 89%, 130/100 gives 95%, 140/100 gives 98%, 150/100 gives 99%.

The correct way to compute your rating for a set of games is to average your AdjO & D first, then apply the above. If you average your game scores, you de-emphasize your best games, since you only get a small boost for extreme scoring margins.

 

[wc_illini]

I already said I'm extremely satisfied with this season, but I do want a natty some day. Based on betting odds, we have a ~5% chance this year. It would take 14 years like this to have a ~50% chance of winning one. I'd like better odds than that, so while I'm very happy with this year, I hope it isn't our ceiling. Not that I'd want to move on from Brad if it is, since our NIL budget might be the main constraint, plus there'd be a big risk the next coach does worse.

 

[EmpoweredIllini]

Unconvincing win? That Iowa team was playing to get in the tournament at that point. They were a bubble team at that point. We went into an always tough place to play and led from beginning to end by double digits. There was nothing unconvincing about that win.

lol they were 19-15... an NIT team... if beating NIT teams gets you all hot & bothered then we need to chill on the 'we haven't played well lately' stuff... 6th in the nation over our last 5 games...

fact remains the e8 team was on the struggle bus heading into b1g tourney, which was my whole point before you split hairs on one of my many examples of their poor play down the stretch