Wisconsin 91, Illinois 88 OT Postgame

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#477      
Underwood is such an underachiever with talent. Has teams that are elite by metrics and just can’t win in March. Also can’t close out a game. Truly pathetic
He's James Franklin or Bo Pelini. Wins enough in the regular season but faceplants when it counts.
 
#479      
The standing around on offense needs to change, we shoot better when the ball moves, its getting stuck in Waglers hands too much
But the analytics say standing around on offense is a really good thing, or something . . .
 
#481      
The Tomi pick n pop, a once deadly weapon, is dead. 17% from 3 over the past month? This would be too aggresive this late in the season, but I kind of wish Underwood would park his !!! in the post.
Tomi shoots off the wrong foot too much. The 3 he made today he stepped into it the right way. Hard for him as a lefty to get in the right position if you're setting picks for all your guards to go to the right.
 
#484      
These are the only times this year we shot both below our average from the field AND below our average from three in the same game vs. Power Conference teams, in chronological order.

Nov. 19 - L 86-90 vs. Alabama: 42.5% FG, 34.4% 3P
Nov. 28 - L 61-74 vs. UConn: 31.7% FG, 20.7% 3P
Jan. 3 - W 73-65 at Penn State: 39.3% FG, 22.2% 3P
Jan. 29 - W 75-66 vs. Washington: 42.9% FG, 33.3% 3P
Feb. 1 - W 78-69 at Nebraska: 44.4% FG, 30.0% 3P
Feb. 7 - L 82-85 in OT at Michigan State: 36.6% FG, 27.8% 3P
Feb. 15 - W 71-51 vs. Indiana: 43.9% FG, 22.6% 3P
Feb. 21 - L 94-95 in OT at UCLA: 40.6% FG, 31.0% 3P
Feb. 27 - L 70-84 vs. Michigan: 41.3% FG, 31.0% 3P
March 3 - W 80-54 vs. Oregon: 40.8% FG, 27.8% 3P

Not sure how you sort or find data, but i'd be curious top 25 teams W/L record in P4 games where they shoot below their average from 3 and overall from the field.

I would assume "The Historic 4" would all have great records. But interested if there's a certain style we could find commonalities in. Not even trying to argue, but 5-5 seems... about right?
 
#485      
Thanks for the public service announcement…

Like what?( Except For The Fire Brad Crap…) What has been said that is so beyond the pale? What has been said that you find so offensive?

So Getting Jobbed Is Your Only Takeaway Here? I Dont Disagree.
But are you implying the refs are responsible for us squandering two 15+ point leads? Because the refs shouldn’t have even been in the position to job us if we took care of business.

A couple I’ve seen are 1st round exit and Boswell not a good defender among others.

I went back and watched the next possessions that got Wisconsin back into the game (their 9-0 run) here’s how it went:

- Wis: Miss
- ILL: Foul -> Missed Foul on Andrej
- Wis: 2 FTs (iffy foul at best especially after the no call the possession before)
- ILL: Miss
- Wis: Blackwell 3
- ILL: Mirk in-and-out for 3
- Wis: Blackwell layup (bad defense)
- ILL: Wagler TO (missed reach-in foul as he was falling)
- Wis: Wide Open Layup

6 point swing on just officiating to make it a game again. This is not a defense of not closing it out, but 6 points swing from officiating in a 90 second stretch is a job.
 
#486      
Not a great offensive showing today either by our standards.

1.171 points per possession. On the season Illinois averages 1.255 (which is 1st in the country).
The only stat that matters is if you win the game
 
#488      
12-0 against bottom 2/3 of Big Ten. 3-6 against the top third… but… four OT losses in the six.

This team has been roughly the 20th best team all season. And they’re remarkably consistent in playing at that level.

We win the first two, and assuming a 2 (or even 1) seed awaits in the Sweet 16, that’s it.

Unless Wagler goes Carmelo 2.0.

… and Brad is a great coach. 0-4 in OT is unlucky as much as un-clutch.
 
#489      
washington seattle GIF
 
#490      
Our top rated offense philosophy is for our bigs to spread the floor and shoot 3’s. That wont get you to the final 4. We need to run plays and have players we can throw it to and score down low. I am tired of the top rated offensive metrics. If that is true, we must have a horrible defense
I was referring to the last play of the game: the announcers were talking about us drawing up a play, but we don't really have plays even for situations like that or BLOBs, etc. While what we did wasn't anything creative, Wagler actually got a decent shot since Wisky was too afraid to foul.

As for our offensive philosophy, I'd say it's generally matchup hunting (plus offensive rebounding and low turnovers). And you're right, a big part of that is bringing our bigs out to shoot 3s, and that is perfectly good when they make a good %. But T and Z's 3pt%s have been bad for a while now, and we aren't rebounding their misses. I think if we abandoned those shots, the other matchups could still be good enough.

Today was still a "good" offensive game, but we need it to be great when our D is #25. Our net efficiency is not heading in the right direction (depending on how many games back you look), and what's also concerning is that we've played above our average against bad opponents (17-0 vs Q2+ and #3 in Torvik @ +37.4), but below it against better opponents (7-8 vs Q1 and #12 in Torvik @ +29.2). I don't know when both of those a small-sample-size trends (playing worse lately and playing worse against good teams) are more than a maddening coincidence, but it doesn't feel good.

Betting markets have dropped our championship odds down to a tie for 7th/8th with IAST, so I guess that's the takeaway for now.
 
#493      
I’ll be happy with a sweet 16 at this point
Right or wrong, my attitude entering the NCAA Tournament is the same as last year and just shifted two rounds. Last year, I would have been very frustrated if we didn't at least play well enough to get out of the First Round. However, if we did find ourselves in the Second Round, it seemed likely that we'd be due for an off game and a ticket home. If we were lucky enough to string together two good performances and make the Sweet Sixteen (which was certainly possible!!), the odds would just rise exponentially that our off game and ticket home had just been delayed, but it was coming.

I [will be] very frustrated if we [don't] at least play well enough to get out of the [Second] Round. However, if we [do] find ourselves in the [Sweet Sixteen], it [seems] likely that [we'll] be due for an off game and a ticket home. If we [are] lucky enough to string together [three] good performances and make the [Elite Eight] (which [is] certainly possible!!), the odds would just rise exponentially that our off game and ticket home [has] just been delayed, but it [is] coming.

The team we were watching in January and early February looked like a team capable of a Final Four run. The team I'm watching now looks like it's capable of playing LIKE a team capable of a Final Four run once or twice, but certainly not four times in a row and certainly not in the face of in-game adversity ... and that's literally what a Final Four run takes. No fan should deride any fan here who is incredibly bummed for rightfully feeling this way about a #2 or #3 seed team of ours two days before Selection Sunday!!
 
#494      
I don’t want to turn this thread into a Brad Underwood coaching discussion, but, for the LOVE OF GOD, at some point you have to hard double Boyd every time he touches the ball and FORCE him to pass! Do whatever you have to do to take him out of the damn game!

If Rohde, Rapp, or whoever goes nuts, you live with the results. Coaching malpractice, in my opinion.
 
#495      
I've been critical of BU for a number of years. But I always get shut down by 'look at his record in the B1G', 'he's won the B1G tournament', 'he can really recruit'....that is all nice, but f' that. It is March that matters and his record stinks.


Illinois Year-by-Year
2021: 1-1 (Round of 32)
2022: 1-1 (Round of 32)
2023: 0-1 (Round of 64)
2024: 3-1 (Elite Eight)
2025: 0-1 (Round of 64)
 
#496      
It’s true. Even 2022-23 when we were a hot mess we just out athleted Wisconsin. The difference in athleticism was stark. They had no answer for Matt Mayer.
Who was a cancer!
 
#498      
Why? Because they don’t account for recency bias fueled, emotional hot takes?
No, absolutely not. BECAUSE I HAVE SEEN THE LAST MONTH OF THIS TEAM's PERFORMANCES. What is it with this strange, irrelevant infatuation with statistics. We have a staff full of guys who worship them and you see how that's working out. Get a grip, man.
 
#499      
Another nit is timeout usage.

We had a 15 point lead in the first have and gave it up primarily through poor shot selection during an extended run of game action when both teams were gassed. I think we passed both the under 12 and under 8 before there was a break. Now the flip side is Wisconsin was gassed too. But we’ve got the lead! Take your use it or lose it, take a breath and recombobulate the team and get back to shooting good shots.

And then we had another 15 point lead with 10 minutes to go in second half and gave up a 9-0 run in about 90 seconds. I get wanting to save your timeouts for late game, but protect the ****ed lead! Call a timeout and break their run.

Also, seems like we rarely draw anything up anyway in the closing minutes. We usually just get into one of our actions. Brad can do that from the sidelines if we don’t have the timeouts.

We had a 93% win expectancy in the last 12 minutes.
Brad is awful with timeouts. It's so bad it's almost comical.
 
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