NC. Would love to pound them.
Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT
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Pound it inside over and over I hope, ignore the 3 point line completely
Loyola will forever haunt me.
I'd probably look at this differently. TL/DR: Under BU, regardless of our seed, we generally overperform against bad opponents and underperform against good opponents.
Our only game as a Torvik favorite against a top 20 team was Loyola. But even as an underdog against top teams (5 games), we've generally lost by more than we should have (except Iowa St, which we won). Against teams outside the top 40, we've won by more than expected every time (4 games) except Chattanooga.
Against Torvik #40+ (#40 Xavier is the only team we've played between #20 and #77):
Record: 5-0
Against the Torvik spread: 4-1 (7.1pt favorite vs #77 Chattanooga, won by 1)
We won these by an average of 17, but were only favored by an average of 9.8
Against teams inside the Torvik top 20:
Record: 1-5
Against the Torvik spread: 1-5 (3.5pt dog vs Iowa St, won by 3)
As Torvik favorite: 0-1 (4.2pt favorite vs Loyola, lost by 13)
As Torvik underdog: 1-4
Our average margin was -11.5, but were an average underdog of only 2.7
Penn is #147
UNC is #27 (but worse since injury)
VCU is #48
Also, would everyone else stop using Torvik's site? It can't handle all the traffic, and I need to look at stuff
Exactly. Brad isn’t coaching.
I hope we can improve our passing. We used to have some crisp passing into the bread basket mid-season. Now it’s over the head, at the knees, or a bounce pass. I understand defenses have tightened up when we play Top 25 teams. But our offense turned into hero ball vs. Wisky down the stretch. We have players that can get to the cup in the flow of the offense. But we shouldn’t be drawing up Kobe ISO plays.
I also wish Andrej could/would look up for the kick out pass when he gets a paint touch. We don’t need to be forcing up to lay-ups high off the glass. And if we are the Twin Towers need to be crashing the weak side glass.
I also wish Andrej could/would look up for the kick out pass when he gets a paint touch. We don’t need to be forcing up to lay-ups high off the glass. And if we are the Twin Towers need to be crashing the weak side glass.
I find this interesting. They are given that information or have a very strong inkling in advance?
I did not know that.
VCU would be a great draw, they are barely a tournament team.
When you watched John Wooden at UCLA he sat on his chair and rolled up his program.
UNC is favored over VCU by 2.5pts, so I agree VCU is weaker, but it's close enough for other opinions to be reasonable
Personally, I don't put much stock in the seeding. The committee is a lot dumber than sportsbooks. And they don't even pretend to select based on which teams are better, so that's even less relevant.
GREAT post. When we were playing at our peak our ball movement was excellent. Quick, decisive, hitting guys right in their shooting pocket, etc. We have really fallen off in that area.
Lack of ball movement and very careless passes. Wagler’s decision-making has been very poor during this recent stretch.
T.J.Powers he’s a junior
I think Tomi has checked out
BillyBob1
- Champaign
Wasn’t too long ago when people were mad about Weber yelling at players where they should go.
Yeah, I also think big first round upsets will be rarer because of this
But I'm not as convinced yet about chalky E8s and F4s. It isn't like the top 4 or 8 are the Dodgers of the NCAA and everyone else is the Rays. There will still be lots of other teams spending gobs of money that just don't click as well in a given year. Plus, if the 3-5 seeds get upset less, the 1&2 seeds will be facing fewer cupcakes in the S16 and E8 than in the past. I could definitely be wrong though.
Hmmm. Recalling long ago complaints, it would seem Weber was providing too much instruction on the sidelines…and Underwood now too little? In a Three Bears scenario, our next coach will get it just right.
For our next coach we will need to know the stats
Sitting down %
Yelling %
Fart noise %
23 upsets
in
40 tournaments
23/40 x 100 = 57.5% chance that at least one 3seed loses in a given tournament.
The way you did it, you need to multiply by 4 since there are 4 3seeds in a tournament:
23/160 x 4 = 0.575 convert to percent, 57.5%
3 seeds have won 137 / 160, or 86%. Assuming the same odds, the chance of all four 3-seeds winning is 0.86^4, or 54%. So there's a 46% chance that at least one 3-seed loses in a given tournament
That’s good info. We typically underperform our seed. Thats all I’m saying. We are the 3 seed. Get to the damn set 16. Metrics tell us we have an easy path compared to the rest of the field. Get it done.
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Pound inside to Mirc? Cause the other 7 footers are not a great option. Unless it’s lobs to big Z
But this year, the 3 seeds are more heavily favored than in the past. Using odds from BetMGM and attempting to remove their vig:
Illinois: 96.3%
Gonzaga: 93.6%
UVA: 92.6%
MSU: 90.3%
All four win: 75.9%
Don’t you dare give a snarky response to a reporter either. Hurley would never!
Saw a stat that showed Ivy League in the tourney the last 10 years...They have highly surpassed seed line expectations.
Get to the rim. Easy game plan. Penn has no one that can keep you from getting to the hoop.
They also don't have 7 footers like the twins.
Only way this game is close is if we get complacent and try and trade 3 point attempts.
Regardless of who's got the Penn scout, I just hope they remember which one Power's dominant hand is.
Cause the team sure seemed to forget when guarding Nick Boyd.
Cause the team sure seemed to forget when guarding Nick Boyd.
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