Chills
Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT
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Take them down, brick by brick, and make every single moment count.
From here on out, it's showtime.
From here on out, it's showtime.
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
ILL time to dance!!!
Woof did I pick a good day to not check the board lol
Unless we win, I wouldn't bother if hot takes get under your skin. It's ridiculous sometimes.
They don’t get under my skin. I just laugh because they baffle me sometimes lol
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
the national
- the Front Range
For one more day, one more game, we get to enjoy the aura of Fran. Im rooting for a technical, for old times sake.View attachment 48419
the national
- the Front Range
We were outrebounded (by Chattanooga!) and Andre Curbelo most likely had the worst game NCAA tournament history. I do miss holding the opposition to 53.
I would like to see Keaton hit a step-back 3. I can't remember the last time he hit one, and am pretty sure he hit more in the Purdue game than he has hit in all the games since, combined.
CBS lists Penn over Illinois as the least likely 3-14 upset.
The WSJ Sports writer begs to differ
WSJ Picks Penn over Ill
No. 14 Penn over No. 3 Illinois
Ezekowitz: 12%
KenPom: 3%
Ezekowitz cautions that this is improbable. But it might be less unlikely than you might think.
The Quakers squeaked into the NCAA tournament with back-to-back overtime wins in the Ivy League tournament. And even though they face an uphill climb against a Big Ten program, there’s a lot to like. They take care of the basketball and make 39% of their threes, led by former Duke recruit TJ Power, who notched 44 points against Yale in the Ivy championship.
That could be particularly dangerous against Illinois. The team’s defense essentially dares opponents to take threes with a defensive style that packs the paint and forces the lowest turnover rate of the 365 teams in Division I. Which is why it wouldn’t be totally crazy for Penn to win its first NCAA tournament game since 1994.
People still get tested for that B.S.?
It will be reasonably close for the first 10 minutes with a gradual growth in the lead for us until about 4 minutes left in the game at garbage time. Illinois 82-67.
Happy first round Thursday, yall! Best 4 days in sports and it's just soo much better when we're involved.
Since the question was asked in the press conference, I wanted to go back and see if I could find any commonalities between our 4 games that resulted in OT losses after giving up decent leads.
Specifically, is there anything we were doing worse / differently during the periods where we lost the leads?
I thought perhaps we became too reliant on threes in those stretches.
Nope. We actually shot threes at a lower per 40 rate than our season average.
What about fouls and turnovers?
Nope. Even though fouls were an issue vs Wisconsin in the BTT and turnovers were a major issue in the Wisconsin loss at home, that's not a common denominator.
The main issue that popped up in all 4 games during those stretches is 3p shooting and offensive rebounding.
We shot 25% from three and rebounded our own misses at an 8.4 per 40 rate - about 5 rebounds lower than our average.
Crazy theory:
We get these big leads with stretches of great shooting. Which means, there are fewer offensive rebounds up for grabs. Players start to anticipate the make rather than anticipate the miss. They stop crashing the offensive glass as hard because they haven't really had to the whole game. When we do finally start missing shots, we're now a step slow going for the boards.
Crazier theory:
We need to shoot more threes during these stretches! Maybe we aren't getting as many offensive rebounds because we're not shooting as many threes which produce those offensive rebounding opportunities.
Of course, that's just one half of the game. I didn't look at the defensive side beyond team fouls.
But here's to hoping we bring intensity every single play for the rest of the month. If we do, there's not a game in our bracket we can't win.
Since the question was asked in the press conference, I wanted to go back and see if I could find any commonalities between our 4 games that resulted in OT losses after giving up decent leads.
Specifically, is there anything we were doing worse / differently during the periods where we lost the leads?
I thought perhaps we became too reliant on threes in those stretches.
Nope. We actually shot threes at a lower per 40 rate than our season average.
What about fouls and turnovers?
Nope. Even though fouls were an issue vs Wisconsin in the BTT and turnovers were a major issue in the Wisconsin loss at home, that's not a common denominator.
The main issue that popped up in all 4 games during those stretches is 3p shooting and offensive rebounding.
We shot 25% from three and rebounded our own misses at an 8.4 per 40 rate - about 5 rebounds lower than our average.
Crazy theory:
We get these big leads with stretches of great shooting. Which means, there are fewer offensive rebounds up for grabs. Players start to anticipate the make rather than anticipate the miss. They stop crashing the offensive glass as hard because they haven't really had to the whole game. When we do finally start missing shots, we're now a step slow going for the boards.
Crazier theory:
We need to shoot more threes during these stretches! Maybe we aren't getting as many offensive rebounds because we're not shooting as many threes which produce those offensive rebounding opportunities.
Of course, that's just one half of the game. I didn't look at the defensive side beyond team fouls.
But here's to hoping we bring intensity every single play for the rest of the month. If we do, there's not a game in our bracket we can't win.
Your formulas are completely correct. But you calculated it wrong.
Two 5-12: 44.8%
Two 4-13: 19.01%
This type of pick is sheer genius prognostication. If Penn springs the upset, he'll be one of the only prognosticators to have called it. But he warns us it is improbable. Heads I win, tails you lose. I'll just put this out there right now: Miami of Ohio is going to win the national title (and they might if they hit 16 3's every game). But it's improbable. Fill out your bracket appropriately.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
And do it in two paragraphs or less. Being concise can be a super power!Before you depart please summarize your prior Feb/Mar/Apr vacation destinations since the Weber era, Illini results, and the uniforms the team wore.I'm looking for positive correlations, spurious or not.
We held oregon to 54 two weeks back..
Not crazy about the late start. Hopefully the boys are good with it 
CrazedUIFan
UI Fan in QC Land
I believe this has less to do with Boswell and more to do with scouting.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Getting old has its benefits: I had completely forgotten that nail-biting traumatic win. The good 'ol 4-13 matchup. We shot 18% from three. Curbelo played 30 mins and had 4 assists, 5 pts and 6 turnovers. Yikes. I do, however, recall the subsequent game v. Houston and RJ getting teed up after a flush.
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