Pregame: Illinois vs Houston, Thursday, March 26th, 9:05pm CT, TBS
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Not sure why there isn’t more of an assumption that Illini Nation will travel as well as we always do. I’ve seen plenty about Nebraska fans flooding the place and even Iowa fans showing up … but comparatively less for our fan base that has historically traveled not just better than both but by a massive margin. I get it’s special for Nebraska, but come on … we’ll show up in good numbers.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
We'll be represented, but there are only so many seats.
We saw that this weekend, with Duke and UNC as part of the allotment in the Carolinas, the ability for an Illini takeover was limited.
Before the tourney began I thought Houston was one of the toughest matchups in the field for us and I was hoping we'd be able to avoid them. For this to be a Sweet 16 matchup is sort of wild as it seems a round or two early based on the quality of teams. Not too long ago both teams were competing for 1 seeds.
Now that we've arrived here, Houston hasn't gotten any less tough of a matchup. This is a physical, strong, athletic, swarming defense team of a style that has frustrated our players. And the most similar team to them who we played this year was Michigan, our worst loss. Personally, I think we're decent dogs in this one.
That said, we are not without hope here. We played some of our best offensive ball of the season against Penn and our defense this tournament has been an extraordinary leap. What we did against VCU was stifling, and the effort and energy we showed throughout the game was at a level that was absolutely buzzing, a level we need to keep for 40minutes against this Houston team to win. But the thing that truly gives me hope is how we handled the frustration of VCU's extremely physical play and how we changed up our attacks in response. This was the first time all season where I felt we overcame all the clutching and grabbing frustration and became the aggressor fighting through it and forcing our will on them.
We came up with a great gameplan on how to attack VCU with the pass and when VCU adapted to that we adapted right back and burned them by pounding the boards, winning the 50/50 balls and forcing them to foul us or give up layups or open threes. Houston is much bigger and stronger but we must do the same thing in fighting through the contact, making them commit, and then quick passing to the open man. Gotta do it from the opening whistle until the clock hits zero. Play your hearts out.
And 1 final thing to note- If Houston does have a weakness it's that they've been prone to giving up major 2nd Half runs to opponents.
Houston in their 6 losses:
-Given up opponent 9-19pt 2nd Half runs in all 6 losses
Houston in their 30 wins:
-Given up a 10-12pt 2nd half opponent runs 5 times.
Now that we've arrived here, Houston hasn't gotten any less tough of a matchup. This is a physical, strong, athletic, swarming defense team of a style that has frustrated our players. And the most similar team to them who we played this year was Michigan, our worst loss. Personally, I think we're decent dogs in this one.
That said, we are not without hope here. We played some of our best offensive ball of the season against Penn and our defense this tournament has been an extraordinary leap. What we did against VCU was stifling, and the effort and energy we showed throughout the game was at a level that was absolutely buzzing, a level we need to keep for 40minutes against this Houston team to win. But the thing that truly gives me hope is how we handled the frustration of VCU's extremely physical play and how we changed up our attacks in response. This was the first time all season where I felt we overcame all the clutching and grabbing frustration and became the aggressor fighting through it and forcing our will on them.
We came up with a great gameplan on how to attack VCU with the pass and when VCU adapted to that we adapted right back and burned them by pounding the boards, winning the 50/50 balls and forcing them to foul us or give up layups or open threes. Houston is much bigger and stronger but we must do the same thing in fighting through the contact, making them commit, and then quick passing to the open man. Gotta do it from the opening whistle until the clock hits zero. Play your hearts out.
And 1 final thing to note- If Houston does have a weakness it's that they've been prone to giving up major 2nd Half runs to opponents.
Houston in their 6 losses:
-Given up opponent 9-19pt 2nd Half runs in all 6 losses
Houston in their 30 wins:
-Given up a 10-12pt 2nd half opponent runs 5 times.
Plus Houston is a super easy flight from Chicago. Several daily directs. We will have a good contingent for sure.
IlliniwekKDR
- Colorado Springs, CO
I couldn't agree more. We should have a good crowd. Larger alumni base than Houston and is scattered all over the country. We travel well.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Physicality and athleticism-wise, yes.
But in terms of size, depth, and the pace at which they play, no.
We had fewer rebounds, fewer free throws attempted and made, and fewer bench points against Michigan. If all of those are dramatically different against Houston we've got a chance.
I think the most similar team we've played is actually Sparty. Houston is better, but it's a similar mentality and I think they'll address the challenge of playing us in a similar way.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
11:05 in Rio de Janeiro. Where I'll be when we make it to the Final Four in a couple weekends.
On top of tempo, I think the referees are going to have a big impact here. Houston is bottom half in CBB in fouls per game. We are 2nd in the country in that stat. So I expect quite a bit of fouling from them and if guys like Keaton and Andrej can get to the line frequently, it will keep the game close at least.
But I would love to see one of the three-point shooters go off here.
But I would love to see one of the three-point shooters go off here.
Michigan typically plays drop coverage on screens, while Houston typically blitzes or at least hedges screens. Nebraska might be the most similar of the B1G teams?
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
This is a great point and the tempo stretches it even more.
NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Personal Fouls per Possession | TeamRankings.com
NCAA Basketball personal fouls per possession, by team.
www.teamrankings.com
Illinois fouls on 19.5% of its defensive possessions, 2nd best in the country. Houston fouls on 26.6% of its possessions, 299th in the country.
Houston also has a great starting 5, but less quality in depth.
A differential in fouls and free throws would make a huge difference here.
I agree with you on MSU. I’d also throw Tennessee in there.
Since I'm retired, I'll add an after dinner nap to my morning nap and afternoon nap and be good to go for the game.
Yeah I hadn't found foul rate yet, thanks. I hate relying on that, though, because we have to worry about what is basically a home whistle. What if the refs decide to swallow the whistle for this game? Our weakness is going to be if they don't call contact in the lane and Keaton and Kylan and Andrej just get hammered the whole time without calls? Then we have to hit from outside and if we can't, it will be a long day for us. At the very least, I think we can out-tempo them and if we get down, can get caught up in a hurry.This is a great point and the tempo stretches it even more.
NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Personal Fouls per Possession | TeamRankings.com
NCAA Basketball personal fouls per possession, by team.
Illinois fouls on 19.5% of its defensive possessions, 2nd best in the country. Houston fouls on 26.6% of its possessions, 299th in the country.
Houston also has a great starting 5, but less quality in depth.
A differential in fouls and free throws would make a huge difference here.
I don't think this is as good of a Houston team as we saw last time. But the dropoff isn't large. We MUST box out. We MUST get our rebounds. We MUST be strong with the ball.
Corn bowl.
. Well done, sir.ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
On any given time running a play with the ball, Houston is likelier to get a bucket than we are. But our team is designed to get more opportunities to score points than our opponents, and that is going to have to win the day.
Chuck Nuggets
Dip your nuggets in my staff source sauce.
Really great quotes from Sampson about Illinois: "There's certain teams that you scout them for the first time, I haven't seen Illinois play much this year at all, but scouting 'em and just watching 'em for the first time I found myself being a fan. Just enjoyed watching them."
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