Pregame: Illinois vs Houston, Thursday, March 26th, 9:05pm CT, TBS
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Why worry about any match up at this point? Not a single coach or player expects to play a Sweet Sixteen game against a quad 4 caliber team. You want to be the best? Want to be remembered for a National title. Well, go beat the best the country has to offer.
This Illini team can do just that...and anyone who thinks they can't (almost all of whom seem to Illini fans who post here) is categorically wrong. I will be 79 soon and there has been no Illini team to win a NC in my lifetime....but two of those teams could and maybe should have. They will be remembered in Illini lore forever.
This Illini team can win it all!! But if they don't, they have been one of a handful of the most enjoyable to watch. And If BU can keep them together and add a couple of great players, it could be a wash, rinse, repeat next year. He should not find that too be an impossible task either as kids notice two things that they all like about this Illini team that make them want to join the program:
1. The have the #1 most efficient scoring offense.
2. These guys truly enjoy playing together and with a purpose.
My thoughts on the Tournament Turnaround to this point in respect to improved level of play is that an 18 game B1G schedule on top of a challenging pre-conference lineup of top 20 opponents simply wore this team to a frazzle mentally and physically....and it did the same thing to the Houston Cougars who lost 3 consecutive games in late season. But the Big Dance has a way of re-energizing and re-focusing players...especially seniors....and making them circle the wagons for a last ditch run...together. Hope our guys show out. Go Illini !!!
This Illini team can do just that...and anyone who thinks they can't (almost all of whom seem to Illini fans who post here) is categorically wrong. I will be 79 soon and there has been no Illini team to win a NC in my lifetime....but two of those teams could and maybe should have. They will be remembered in Illini lore forever.
This Illini team can win it all!! But if they don't, they have been one of a handful of the most enjoyable to watch. And If BU can keep them together and add a couple of great players, it could be a wash, rinse, repeat next year. He should not find that too be an impossible task either as kids notice two things that they all like about this Illini team that make them want to join the program:
1. The have the #1 most efficient scoring offense.
2. These guys truly enjoy playing together and with a purpose.
My thoughts on the Tournament Turnaround to this point in respect to improved level of play is that an 18 game B1G schedule on top of a challenging pre-conference lineup of top 20 opponents simply wore this team to a frazzle mentally and physically....and it did the same thing to the Houston Cougars who lost 3 consecutive games in late season. But the Big Dance has a way of re-energizing and re-focusing players...especially seniors....and making them circle the wagons for a last ditch run...together. Hope our guys show out. Go Illini !!!
Screw That. We’re Gonna Win This SOB.
These guys seem pretty confident in our chances:
Get a room you two!
What he means is that in the Kenpom algo he weights (changes) the value of a statistic (3 pt field goal just as an example) depending on opponent and venue.
Keaton Wagler's 3 pointer (or Illinois as a team) @ Purdue is worth more than Keaton Wagler (or Illinois as a team) making a 3 pointer at home against Colgate.
The issue with that is that the teams that play the "heavier" schedule are going to show up higher in all the Kenpom ratings which where the statistical bias comes in.
But to keep it really simple - there is no statistical correlation between Kenpon rankings and tournament wins. In fact the correlation is slightly negative. Over the past 10 years when the NCAA tournament was held fewer than 50% of the 8 highest ranking Kenpom teams prior the tourney, actually made it to the elite 8.
Who ranks higher in Kenpom (statistically speaking) is a money loser (if you are professional spread better) in the NCAA tourney.
I'm not getting those vibes.
There's a lot of talk on here about how Illinois has fared against teams like MSU and Michigan, but not much on Houston's own track record. And here's the deal: Houston has struggled just as much as us with that top tier of opponents. They are 5-6 in Q1A (we are 5-7). The toughest opponent they've beaten is Arkansas (#17 KP, #15 NET).
Looking for a similar efficiency profile to ours in the Big 12, the most similar I found was Texas Tech. High ranked offense, lower ranked defense (worse than us in both however). Houston went 1-1 against Tech, and both games were close, (yes, even the one in Houston).
In fact when you look at their Q1 games, a lot of close games, not many blowouts.
Looking at Houston's resume, I don't understand the Michigan 2.0 talk. Where have they shown they can do that to a top-10 team? They simply haven't. We aren't Baylor and we aren't Texas A&M. They may ultimately beat us, but I'd be surprised if we weren't in it to the end.
Looking for a similar efficiency profile to ours in the Big 12, the most similar I found was Texas Tech. High ranked offense, lower ranked defense (worse than us in both however). Houston went 1-1 against Tech, and both games were close, (yes, even the one in Houston).
In fact when you look at their Q1 games, a lot of close games, not many blowouts.
Looking at Houston's resume, I don't understand the Michigan 2.0 talk. Where have they shown they can do that to a top-10 team? They simply haven't. We aren't Baylor and we aren't Texas A&M. They may ultimately beat us, but I'd be surprised if we weren't in it to the end.
Proud of it. I have a cardio class that begins at 5:35.
I’ve seen people say the comp game is Sparty. I actually think it’s VCU.
Quick athletic guards. Lots of ball pressure and trying force turnovers. Bigs that are smaller than us but have a big advantage in athleticism. That’s Houston and it’s also VCU.
If we can play with the same defensive bite and clog gaps like we did vs VCU, I think Houston will similarly have to settle for long contested 2s and will probably struggle to consistently score.
To me the biggest key is our passing and .5 second offense. If the ball doesn’t stick we should be able to see over the top of their pressure and create advantages on the back end. This may be an E8 type matchup but in some sense we are fortunate it’s a S16 matchup because it means we have a longer prep. My guess is we are practicing a couple of sets right now so we won’t have to think or read too much because we know where the ball is going. Think the second Nebraska game. We ran 1-2 sets over and over again and were able to consistently beat their defense and get shots at the rim.
All of that said, we could come in with the perfect gameplan and still just be overwhelmed by their toughness and athleticism and lose by 20. But we present matchup problems for them too and if we play our game we have a chance. All you can ask for at this stage.
Quick athletic guards. Lots of ball pressure and trying force turnovers. Bigs that are smaller than us but have a big advantage in athleticism. That’s Houston and it’s also VCU.
If we can play with the same defensive bite and clog gaps like we did vs VCU, I think Houston will similarly have to settle for long contested 2s and will probably struggle to consistently score.
To me the biggest key is our passing and .5 second offense. If the ball doesn’t stick we should be able to see over the top of their pressure and create advantages on the back end. This may be an E8 type matchup but in some sense we are fortunate it’s a S16 matchup because it means we have a longer prep. My guess is we are practicing a couple of sets right now so we won’t have to think or read too much because we know where the ball is going. Think the second Nebraska game. We ran 1-2 sets over and over again and were able to consistently beat their defense and get shots at the rim.
All of that said, we could come in with the perfect gameplan and still just be overwhelmed by their toughness and athleticism and lose by 20. But we present matchup problems for them too and if we play our game we have a chance. All you can ask for at this stage.
The UConn game was deer in the headlights game. MSG and all. The Michigan game was “long losing streak against us and they were more motivated plays MJ had something to prove. We are a better team now.
What are you saying here? That we might see these guys bc we haven’t yet?
That’s a rough list there.
The key to this game is free throws.
In all 6 of Houston’s losses their opponents shot a lot more FTs than Houston.
Tenn (76-73 loss)
TN: 23/29
H: 8/11
Texas Tech (90-86 loss)
TT: 24/30
H: 17/21
Iowa State (70-67 loss)
ISU: 11/22
H: 7/11
Arizona (73-66 loss)
AZ: 20/31
H: 18/22
Kansas (69-56 loss)
KS: 18/20
H: 9/9
Arizona (79-74 loss)
AZ: 23/27
H: 10/14
In all 6 of Houston’s losses their opponents shot a lot more FTs than Houston.
Tenn (76-73 loss)
TN: 23/29
H: 8/11
Texas Tech (90-86 loss)
TT: 24/30
H: 17/21
Iowa State (70-67 loss)
ISU: 11/22
H: 7/11
Arizona (73-66 loss)
AZ: 20/31
H: 18/22
Kansas (69-56 loss)
KS: 18/20
H: 9/9
Arizona (79-74 loss)
AZ: 23/27
H: 10/14
Yeah this is pretty typical of them, tbh.
They foul way more than their opponents and opponents have shot like 150 more free throws this year.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
I sort of understand why people are comping MSU (grrr! Toughness! Taciturn coaches!) but they strike me as pretty different teams.
MSU was the first team to pilot “hey let’s try the Jordan Rules on Keaton Wagler”; add that to their usual ability to rebound, throw in some cheap fouls, Fears kamikaze-ing into the lane and you had a “tough” game.
Houston’s defensive reputation isn’t for shoving people around, it’s for committing so hard to getting 2 guys on the ball and then recovering that you feel like you’re getting all of the downsides of a double-team and no room to take advantage of what that opens up. They’re a jump shooting team. They can be had on the glass. It’ll be extremely “tough” also but not because they’re playing like MSU.
MSU was the first team to pilot “hey let’s try the Jordan Rules on Keaton Wagler”; add that to their usual ability to rebound, throw in some cheap fouls, Fears kamikaze-ing into the lane and you had a “tough” game.
Houston’s defensive reputation isn’t for shoving people around, it’s for committing so hard to getting 2 guys on the ball and then recovering that you feel like you’re getting all of the downsides of a double-team and no room to take advantage of what that opens up. They’re a jump shooting team. They can be had on the glass. It’ll be extremely “tough” also but not because they’re playing like MSU.
Haven't seen any player matchup predictions, and they aren't crystal clear to me this game. My assumption is Kylan takes Flemings. But there's a case to be made that you put your best rearview contest defender on Flemings -- since he takes a lot of midrange pullups -- and that isn't Kylan. Could be Keaton, or Andrej if he's in the game, or maybe even Ben. Sharp is a good scorer but least quick of the three, so I think Jake starts there. The coaching staff has shown the willingness to be very creative with the cross matches so hard to predict, but most straightforward matchups would be:
Flemings -- Kylan
Uzan -- Keaton
Sharp -- Jake
Cenac -- Mirk
Tugler -- Tomi
On offense I think you can pick on Cenac. I assume Tugler will take Tomi, but possibly they put him on Mirk? Whoever Cenac is on I think you put him in ball screens and backdowns. Make Tugler stand on the weakside guarding his guy at three point line (out of the lane).
Flemings -- Kylan
Uzan -- Keaton
Sharp -- Jake
Cenac -- Mirk
Tugler -- Tomi
On offense I think you can pick on Cenac. I assume Tugler will take Tomi, but possibly they put him on Mirk? Whoever Cenac is on I think you put him in ball screens and backdowns. Make Tugler stand on the weakside guarding his guy at three point line (out of the lane).
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It's a good point really. They're as odd and unique defensively as we are offensively.
They are strong on the offensive glass though. This game is a clipboard-smashing JV coaches dream, it really is all going to be decided by who boxes out better.
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Bwahahahahaha I just had my first fan interaction in downtown San Antonio…weird since I live in HTown now.
Forgot I had my Illini hat on and old dude came up and said “how do you feel about Sunday night?”
What?
Then he motioned to the hat and I said ohhhhh Thursday!! lol. Oh yeah he said.
He’s a “Coogs” fan.
Amicable chit chat…..then he busts out with high praise for Samscum.
I politely said never been a big fan of Calvin honestly.
Conversation turned in an instant! He was so confused! I was very complimentary of Houston, then dismissed the coach with a smile.
He had no idea how to respond! The looks on he and his wife’s faces!!!
Forgot I had my Illini hat on and old dude came up and said “how do you feel about Sunday night?”
What?
Then he motioned to the hat and I said ohhhhh Thursday!! lol. Oh yeah he said.
He’s a “Coogs” fan.
Amicable chit chat…..then he busts out with high praise for Samscum.
I politely said never been a big fan of Calvin honestly.
Conversation turned in an instant! He was so confused! I was very complimentary of Houston, then dismissed the coach with a smile.
He had no idea how to respond! The looks on he and his wife’s faces!!!
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