I like the height and depth advantages more than anything else. Bringing guys like Stoj-Z-Ben in around 16:30 mark is really something that not many teams in the country can do.
Pregame: Illinois vs Houston, Thursday, March 26th, 9:05pm CT, TBS
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I like this take. Many of these podcast talking about this being an elite8 game. I like the fact that we have time to prepare for this one. If we play hard nosed, we have a great chance to take this one.
Believe that was just prior to hiring Self. Remember it well from the early Illinois forum days!
When I watched their earlier games, they looked to be a decent mid-range shooting team. I think that might be a difference from VCU in that they can consistently hit that long 2 and VCU struggled after a point. Our ball screen defense definitely needs to be on point for this game.
Tell 'em Beth, you the queen. Drop their team off a WY hillside so we can get on to the next game. I-L-L
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0001 Zulu...
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Samscum.
I politely said never been a big fan of Calvin honestly.
Kelvin
Internet dumb dumb
That talk is just that, talk. Complete nonsense at that. Michigan won the best conference in America by 4 games. Houston finished 3-5 against the top teams in the Big 12.
Michigan 2.0 my !!!.
To be fair Houston is 26th in the country in offensive rebound rate- I know that is “green” on Torvik but not really elite as you get down to the best teams in the country now. They are only 126th in defensive reb rate- so we have to exploit that
That doesn’t fit the narrative. Houston is ‘tough’, ‘physical’, ‘Michigan 2.0’, ‘great defensive team’, ‘great rebounding team’. How did they even lose a game? Even lost one at home where they are invincible.
Did anyone see know this after the Penn Game??? I had no idea
https://www.thedp.com/article/2026/03/penn-mens-basketball-march-madness-band-chant-column-2026
https://www.thedp.com/article/2026/03/penn-mens-basketball-march-madness-band-chant-column-2026
and take a nap during halftime......Since I'm retired, I'll add an after dinner nap to my morning nap and afternoon nap and be good to go for the game.
A statistical look at the matchup. Because the teams played strong schedules (Illini 13th toughest, Houston 18th toughest), these might be meaningful comparisons:
--A/TO: Hou +1.73, ILL +1.68 (closer than I thought)
--Bench pts: ILL 20, Hou 17
--FG%: ILL 46.46%, Hou 45.09%
--FG Def: Hou 39.51%, ILL 40.93%
--Eff FG%: ILL 55.3%, Hou 52.2%
--3's Att/game: ILL 31.4 (#12), Hou 25.1 (#118)
--3's made: ILL 11 (#9), Hou 8.8 (this could mean a 6-pt ILL advantage given how equal the next 2 categories are)
--3-pt%: ILL 34.99%, Hou 34.92%
--3-pt% Def: ILL 31%, Hou 31.4%
--Fouls/game: ILL 13.3 (#2), Hou 17.9 (#221) (another possible ILL advantage if the whistles are neutral)
--FTA: ILL 20.3, Hou 16.7 (#334/361)
--FT%: ILL 78.44% (#11), Hou 77.20% (#25)
--Reb margin: ILL +10 (#7), Hou +3 (#75) (maybe ILL's biggest advantage)
--Off Reb: ILL 13.65, Hou 12.83
--Pts/game: ILL 84.7 (#17), Hou 77.5 (#136)
--Pts allowed/game: Hou 62.2 (#2), ILL 69.4 (#17)
--Hou points scored vs. ILL points allowed: 72
--ILL points scored vs. Hou points allowed: 73
--A/TO: Hou +1.73, ILL +1.68 (closer than I thought)
--Bench pts: ILL 20, Hou 17
--FG%: ILL 46.46%, Hou 45.09%
--FG Def: Hou 39.51%, ILL 40.93%
--Eff FG%: ILL 55.3%, Hou 52.2%
--3's Att/game: ILL 31.4 (#12), Hou 25.1 (#118)
--3's made: ILL 11 (#9), Hou 8.8 (this could mean a 6-pt ILL advantage given how equal the next 2 categories are)
--3-pt%: ILL 34.99%, Hou 34.92%
--3-pt% Def: ILL 31%, Hou 31.4%
--Fouls/game: ILL 13.3 (#2), Hou 17.9 (#221) (another possible ILL advantage if the whistles are neutral)
--FTA: ILL 20.3, Hou 16.7 (#334/361)
--FT%: ILL 78.44% (#11), Hou 77.20% (#25)
--Reb margin: ILL +10 (#7), Hou +3 (#75) (maybe ILL's biggest advantage)
--Off Reb: ILL 13.65, Hou 12.83
--Pts/game: ILL 84.7 (#17), Hou 77.5 (#136)
--Pts allowed/game: Hou 62.2 (#2), ILL 69.4 (#17)
--Hou points scored vs. ILL points allowed: 72
--ILL points scored vs. Hou points allowed: 73
Watched the highlights of the big 12 championship. I think we can replicate alot of the actions Arizona seemed to have success with:
1. Peat really hurt Houston in a short roll. David isn’t the athlete Peat is but he’s good at using his body to create space and is a better passer.
2. Bradley had success in ball screens. Keaton isn’t as quick but he’s a lot longer and we’ve seen him score over smaller guards/wings time and time again.
3. They were able to create isolation opportunities for Karchenkov to drive and score. From what I can see Andrej is a better athlete/driver than Karchenkov.
4. They were able to get open 3s off of ball screen action/dribble penetration. Arizona only shot 13 but made 6. We should be able to generate open looks for our shooters.
Overall I’m encouraged. I think there are opportunities if we scheme correctly and come out in attack mode. We just can’t get back on our heels.
Analytically and really schematically we are much closer to Arizona who they lost to twice than the Texas Techs and Arkansas who are their best wins. And from what I saw KU had talent but was a bit of a hot mess especially towards the end of the year. Think we’ve got a shot if we’re aggressive.
1. Peat really hurt Houston in a short roll. David isn’t the athlete Peat is but he’s good at using his body to create space and is a better passer.
2. Bradley had success in ball screens. Keaton isn’t as quick but he’s a lot longer and we’ve seen him score over smaller guards/wings time and time again.
3. They were able to create isolation opportunities for Karchenkov to drive and score. From what I can see Andrej is a better athlete/driver than Karchenkov.
4. They were able to get open 3s off of ball screen action/dribble penetration. Arizona only shot 13 but made 6. We should be able to generate open looks for our shooters.
Overall I’m encouraged. I think there are opportunities if we scheme correctly and come out in attack mode. We just can’t get back on our heels.
Analytically and really schematically we are much closer to Arizona who they lost to twice than the Texas Techs and Arkansas who are their best wins. And from what I saw KU had talent but was a bit of a hot mess especially towards the end of the year. Think we’ve got a shot if we’re aggressive.
So all of that means- we win by 1!
Really excellent breakdown. I was extremely surprised that Houston is only +3 in rebounding. I have seen most of their games being a Houston native and I thought that number would be much higher.
Surprising.
MDchicago
- Lake Norman NC
I do like that some of our relative strengths could be synergistic. E.g., if Illini can get Tugler (5.1 fouls per 40) or Cenac (3.7 fouls per 40) in foul trouble, the rebounding advantage potentially could really assert itself in a game defining way.
The bottom line for the game is how the game is called. If the referees allow Houston to hand check us to the point of impeding our movement, Houston wins. Sampson dares referees to call every foul.
It isn't controversial that scoring/defending against good defenses/offenses (and playing on the road) is generally tougher, so having no adjustment for opponent/location would incorrectly bias teams that played strong/weak schedules and/or lots of home/road games. There are of course biases for individual teams (with lower/higher home court advantage, or who play better/worse than typical against good/bad teams), but this will not be systematic (it will vary in magnitude and direction for each team)
I've been saying all along that I think betting markets are better than KenPom (even after ignoring teams shorthanded by injury/etc), just not by a lot. But the number of top teams advancing to the E8 isn't a useful metric without comparing against betting markets (and without considering the odds KenPom gave them in the first place). This year, betting futures implied only ~4.6 of the top 8 (by betting odds) would get to the E8, and the top seeds have become more dominant in the last 5-10 years (plus seeding was/is so inaccurate that top 8 teams can face each other in the S16, like us this year), so it was presumably less in the past. So KenPom ratings probably wouldn't even have expected 50% of its top 8 to get there either over the last 10yrs.
The Prediction Tracker (link) compares computer ranking systems against betting markets- both straight up and against the spread. KenPom and Torvik aren't included, but eleven others are. They typically perform very well- this year, the betting favorite won 72% of the time, and an average of all 11 computer models matched that (slightly ahead by a negligible amount). Against the spread, the computer avg was correct 50.5% of the time with an average error of 9.1pts compared to 9.0 for the line, and the bias was within 0.07pts of the line. This is pretty amazing considering the lack of data during the early part of the season and no information on injuries, etc. There's enough year-to-year variation, though, that I wouldn't expect computer rankings to regularly beat the line, and certainly not by enough to be profitable.
Perhaps the tournament is especially hard since it involves teams from different conferences that haven't faced each other yet, and (after the first round or two) teams that are likely very similar in quality. Mark Moog's site (link) doesn't compare ranking systems against betting markets, but does allow you to separate out by time range. Over the last 10 tournaments, KenPom accurately predicted 69.3% of game winnners, and to me that's close enough to the full-season computer ranking results to maintain reasonable confidence in it for the tourney.
Edit: here were the top 8 implied by betting odds (after adjusting for difficulty of draw): Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Illinois, Purdue. Aside from some slight differences in order, this is identical to Torvik and KenPom. So they will by definition perform equivalently to the betting odds in # of teams in the E8.
I'd love to see a source for this, especially given the above links. And a model has to be meaningfully better than the line just to break even, so a money loser can still be very accurate.
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Agreed. How the game is called is especially critical here.
It's worse here on the east coast, as I now live in Connecticut near NYC, late games last well past my bedtime.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Self I believe.
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