The Final Four

[Piotyr]

Wildly over-reading Kenpom imho

There was an equivalent gap between teams in Torvik, in Haslam, and in EvanMiya. There was a clear top 8 for much of the year, and it effectively played out in the tournament, aside from Iowa State being minus their best player and Duke being minus an effective starter (and nobody else in the East being on that level).

There was also a separate gap between the top 3 (Michigan, Arizona, Duke) and the next 5 (Illinois, Florida, Houston, Purdue, Iowa State). But all 8 of those teams were above the line that typically defines a great team.

Just like last year, the sport was very top heavy, but UConn did break the 2 year stranglehold a bit.

 

[CrazedUIFan]

NIL=The phasing out of blue bloods

 

[IlliniHardwood]

2 UConn vs 3 Illinois

1 Arizona vs 1 Michigan

Hold up. Do you mean to tell me that the SEC, the conference that dominates college basketball and every sport ever invented, is not represented in the 2026 NCAA Men's College Basketball Final Four?! Cancel the tournament -- it's rigged.

 

[Altuve27]

We have a real shot here. I didn’t love a potential Duke matchup. That’s just me.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Duke becomes the first team ever to finish with a +35 Kenpom net rating and not reach the Final 4 (37.29).

The only teams with a +34 rating to not reach Final 4:

2002 Duke: 34.19
1998 Duke: 34.88
2026 Duke: 37.29

If we exclude Duke — every team with a +34 has made the Final 4.

Illinois **currently** is at 34.41.

(Important to note this is where you END the season)

 

[Curbelo Fanboy]

Either we are setup for one more kick in the nuts at the end or the stars have aligned for th ultimate revenge tour de force. Iowa in elite 8 with Deon on the radio call and Pearl in the network studio. UConn to avenge 2024 and then if we get there perhaps Michigan to avenge the biggest heartbreak of all in 1989.

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

Either we are setup for one more kick in the nuts at the end or the stars have aligned for th ultimate revenge tour de force. Iowa in elite 8 with Deon on the radio call and Pearl in the network studio. UConn to avenge 2024 and then if we get there perhaps Michigan to avenge the biggest heartbreak of all in 1989.

Honestly, when you get to a Final Four, there's no such thing as getting kicked in the nuts. It's a legendary season for ALL programs. You're hanging a banner.

Do we want to cut the nets down? 100%. That said, of the 300+ teams in college basketball, only one doesn't end their season with a loss. This Final Four has four damn good teams in it. No Cinderellas here.

I think we have a great chance to beat UCONN. They beat us in MSG, which was pretty much a home game for them. Now, we have a game in our neck of the woods.

Regardless....losing would be a bummer, but it's the Final Fricken Four. Losing to Iowa in the Elite 8 would have been the absolute worst thing the basketball gods could have done to us.

Let's enjoy the week.

 

[IllianaOne]

 

[RaisedMyBoysIllini]

I want to read about the Illini all day every day this week. Put me in a world of my happy place thinking about nothing but my Illini in the final four

 

[wc_illini]

Obligatory FanDuel odds for the remaining rounds. We are again the most favored team to advance, but of course not by much.

Also, I posted something similar in the games thread right after the Duke/UConn game, but it didn't appear for a while and got buried. Our odds to reach the NCG dropped from 44% to 42% as Duke built the lead, then jumped to 55-56%:

And our championship odds dropped from 15% to 12% then jumped to 17-19%:

 

[Illini in Italy]

Obligatory FanDuel odds for the remaining rounds. We are again the most favored team to advance, but of course not by much.
View attachment 49057

Also, I posted something similar in the games thread right after the Duke/UConn game, but it didn't appear for a while and got buried. Our odds to reach the NCG dropped from 44% to 42% as Duke built the lead, then jumped to 55-56%:
View attachment 49059


And our championship odds dropped from 15% to 12% then jumped to 17-19%:
View attachment 49058

 

[ddinsm]

Michigan to avenge the biggest heartbreak of all in 1989.

Too soon …

 

[IlliniCaboose]

 

[Piotyr]

One other thing of note about this final four...all those super freshmen that were talked about before the tournament started?

Dybantsa - 1 and done
Boozer - out in E8
Peterson - DNP the second weekend
Acuff - run out of the gym in S16
Flemings - invisible in S16
Wilson - DNP, team lost in 1st round
Brown - DNP, team lost in 2nd round
Ament - run out of the gym in E8

Wagler - South region MVP and in the F4

 

[Thaillini22]

One other thing of note about this final four...all those super freshmen that were talked about before the tournament started?

Dybantsa - 1 and done
Boozer - out in E8
Peterson - DNP the second weekend
Acuff - run out of the gym in S16
Flemings - invisible in S16
Wilson - DNP, team lost in 1st round
Brown - DNP, team lost in 2nd round
Ament - run out of the gym in E8

Wagler - South region MVP and in the F4

Perhaps Keaton will be the second coming of a feshman named Carmelo once upon a time.

 

[GrapplingIllini]

 

[Epsilon]

Our half of the bracket continues to open up.

 

[jumpingjack]

One other thing of note about this final four...all those super freshmen that were talked about before the tournament started?

Dybantsa - 1 and done
Boozer - out in E8
Peterson - DNP the second weekend
Acuff - run out of the gym in S16
Flemings - invisible in S16
Wilson - DNP, team lost in 1st round
Brown - DNP, team lost in 2nd round
Ament - run out of the gym in E8

Wagler - South region MVP and in the F4

He's not your average NBA prospect, that's for sure. Next level processing and calm.

 

[alaskaillini]

Without question, I would want Arizona in the finals. While the opportunity to beat Michigan would be great, I want then sitting at home on their couches when we are playing for the Natty. Muck Fichigan. And Ann Arbor is an overpriced $2 prostitute.

 

[Thaillini22]

It would be kinda cool if we win it all and ISU wins the NIT.

 

[BleedOandB]

It would be kinda cool if we win it all and ISU wins the NIT.

And Parkland won the Division II JC National Championship.

 

[joeybcrazy13]

I woke up and realized 1 thing!!! We can win the whole gd thing!!!! ILL

 

[Scoregasm]

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

And Parkland won the Division II JC National Championship.

Make Champaign-Urbana Titletown!

 

[RollChief]

You may recall last year (and years prior) the narrative that in the post-COVID, NIL era of CBB, experience and continuity are becoming more important factors to winning Championships. In an effort to find a pattern that suggests this and find any predictive/correlating information with this year's FF, I've prepared a comparison of each of the last 5 years' Final Fours. I chose the last 5 years, as this represents post-NIL CBB.

Find my notes and data below:

- The data below shows each team, their seed, and their D-1 Experience and Minutes Continuity (per KenPom), with both stats ranked against the other Final Four teams (1 being most, 4 being least), along with D-1 averages as a control
- Of the past 4 years, the only Champion that had one of these stats that wasn't above the D-1 average was 2023 UConn's continuity. All teams in the FF this year have above-average continuity and experience.
- Of the champions, none are ranked #1 in either stat against the other FF teams in either stat. If there is any takeaway from this data, it may be that having a lot of experience or continuity may carry you far if you have talent, but may also mask deficiencies that get exposed down the stretch.
- As you would expect, continuity has fallen off a cliff post-NIL
- You may think that D-1 experience has also fallen off a cliff, but 1.45 years actually represents a return to average pre-Covid, where the average was usually between 1.48-1.50. The few bp difference may be from the emergence of European players in CBB.

Interested in any other takeaways here: