Pregame: Illinois vs UConn, Saturday, April 4th, 5:09pm CT, TBS

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#552      
illinifan1987
skyIdub said:
So, everyone do with this what you will.

It is very obviously serious juju that I have been allowed to wield with limited knowledge and control this season.

I did not post it after the Wisconsin loss in the tourney because it was weird and still fresh. And there was lots of doubt about this team.

But for the second time this season, I had called off of work to watch the Illini play basketball against Wisconsin.

So, twice, I’ve eschewed my responsibilities to enjoy this team.

Twice they have lost.
In overtime.
To Wisconsin.

I am scheduled to go to work all weekend.

I am going to work this weekend.
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Thank You For Your Service GIF by Hyper RPG
 
#553      
OrangeBlue98
MidwesternCowboy said:
It's not a certainty that we win this game at all. Far from it. But let's say that we do. Let's say that we pull it off and beat UConn.

Would you rather face Michigan or Arizona for the title?

Personally, I'd take Arizona in a heartbeat. Michigan is the only team all year that made us look like we didn't even belong. Straight-up domination. Have to admit that that game made me terrified of having to face them, again. I know Arizona would hardly be any easier, but I'd take the unknown over what we already saw.
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Honestly, I really don’t care. Because if we are playing one of them, that means we’re playing for a national championship.
 
#554      
hoopsfan47
One thing I like about our chances in the FF is that we have a week to:
1. Watch film and prepare
2. Practice
3. Rest, recover, and get healthier
4. Read about how good Arizona and Michigan are.

Add in that this team are definitely "road warriors" and Illini fans have to be feeling good about our chances....as the favored team to beat UConn!!!
 
#555      
BillyBob1
Is it me or is Keaton the face of this tournament now?

I see his image everywhere.
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There was a cbs video on YouTube with 4 experts telling who the top 4 players are in the Final Four. The first guy didn’t mention Keaton. The 2nd ripped him for not having Keaton on his list. He asked him who would he pick if he were starting a franchise and the guy said Keaton! The 2nd guy jumped all over him again.
 
#556      
RollChief
Illini2010-11 said:
The only way that this logic makes mathematical sense is that you assume all teams rosters are balanced and of equal strength year in and out. It is laughable to assume that the 16 seed has the same chance of winning the national championship as a 1 seed, which is essentially what you are arguing. The hard data states otherwise. Likewise, you are suggesting that the UCONN super team of 2023-2024 only had a .5^6 or 1.6% chance of winning the championship. You are the only person I have ever heard make this argument.

Of course, there is no computer model that will prove to ever be overly accurate. However, to state as a matter of fact that one individual game as a coin flip will be more accurate than advanced metrics is something that no data scientist will ever agree to.

However, you are correct about Saturday. It will be a near virtual coin flip.
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I'm not sure if you've heard of Walter Wagner but this was a really funny one from almost 17 years ago where a guy tried to sue the CERN LHC essentially on the premise that there was a 50% chance it would destroy the universe; it was 50:50, either it would or it wouldn't: https://astroengine.com/tag/walter-wagner/

There's also a pretty funny John Stewart segment on it from back in the day:
 
#558      
HereSoIDontGetFined
Illini2010-11 said:
The only way that this logic makes mathematical sense is that you assume all teams rosters are balanced and of equal strength year in and out. It is laughable to assume that the 16 seed has the same chance of winning the national championship as a 1 seed, which is essentially what you are arguing. The hard data states otherwise. Likewise, you are suggesting that the UCONN super team of 2023-2024 only had a .5^6 or 1.6% chance of winning the championship. You are the only person I have ever heard make this argument.

Of course, there is no computer model that will prove to ever be overly accurate. However, to state as a matter of fact that one individual game as a coin flip will be more accurate than advanced metrics is something that no data scientist will ever agree to.

However, you are correct about Saturday. It will be a near virtual coin flip.
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Every probability calculation starts as equal chance until you add weights. It will just so happen that UConn and Illinois weighting will mostly cancel each other out.
 
#559      
TriangleIL
Illini sections from the ticket office:
141-145
151-152
243-245
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Do we have any information on what level donation you need to be at for the tickets? How many tickets you can purchase?

If anyone is granted an allocation and not planning to use them and doesn't want to go through the work of scalping them, and doesn't already have someone to give them or sell them to, please DM me. Im looking for minimum 2 and up to 4 tickets. I skipped 2005 as a poor post grad, I dont want to make the same mistake twice.
 
#560      
doowink
Does anyone know what time on Friday the Illini have set for practice at Lucas Oil?? Thanks in advance!
 
#562      
HouTexIllini
Roundball Sage said:
He must have had a great upbringing to seem as well-grounded and calm as he is. He’s just had a first year of College Ball like maybe no other in history... he’s shining on the big public stage right now in front of the whole World... he seems to love being in pressure situations... and yet he is team-oriented.

A lot of guys would not handle all this like he seems to be. What a refreshing thing to see and that he’s doing this in Orange and Blue just adds to the joy.

Some guys try hard to ‘Get There’. And other guys are just born with it. That isn't to say it comes easy for him with no effort. It just means that he's been blessed and he knows that. He is so comfortable in himself.
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I think there are several guys in history who have had it this good so far or better.

Five guys from one school had this kind of success in the 90s and we’ll have to win it all for him to match Carmelo Anthony’s freshman season.
 
#564      
AirTran
I'll highly contest that any strategy like this could be profitable after the vig. You're not just saying that KenPom is bad, but that the betting line is systematically incorrectly swayed by KenPom/metrics across enough games that betting the other way is correct >52% of the time. See https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/bbresults.php (and 2025, don't have a link to 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021). All the computer rankings in that comparison over several years are within 48-52% (except Torvik at 52.8% one year) against the spread, so no strategy of betting with/against any of these models would be profitable after a 5% vig. KenPom isn't included, but I'm not willing to accept that they're significantly worse than every single other model without proof, so share your source/data, or we'll have to agree to disagree.

If you're just trying to argue that KenPom is less accurate than the spread, then of course it is (especially early in the season and games affected by injuries). But it isn't helpful at predicting anything against the spread.


You appear to be wrong and right at the same time...

You're wrong in that they did not go 17-1 in 18 coin flips. They were given a 6-7% chance to win it all in 2023 and 20-22% in 2024 (elevated above Torvik's odds of 15%, so betting markets started accounting for something extra). Combined, that's 1.2-1.5%. But in 2023, the best teams they faced were #9, #10, and #11 in Torvik (3 and 5-seeds; while seeding is pretty inaccurate, it gives a perspective on their actual vs likely path). In 2024, other than Purdue (#3, 1-seed), the best they faced were #13 & #14 (3 and 4-seeds). So with those paths their odds would have been much higher, though I don't have time to figure out what. It's still very impressive, but probably more like 20 to 1 than 13,797 to 1. In 2025, they beat Oklahoma as a ~70% favorite and lost to Florida with a ~20% chance to win. So he didn't work any magic there.

But I've also read that they went 17-1 against the spread in those games, so in that regard your calculations are right. Yet what matters isn't how Hurley did vs betting markets in 2023 or 2024, but whether this year's betting markets are meaningful. FWIW, that one loss against the spread was Furman this year, and altogether this year, they're averaging 1.75 points better than the spread, which I'm willing to guess is much less than in 2023 or 2024, so either betting markets have adjusted, or UConn's NCAAT magic has regressed compared to 2023/24.


Well now we agree
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You can highly contest whatever you like. Since you chose to ATS, let's use ATS The numbers are the numbers Kenpom teams covered the spread in 51.7% of all tournament games going back to covid.

Explain to me the statistical difference between 51.7% and a coin flip.

But that is not a sample of 20,000 games between the 100 highest ranked teams over 21 years. Mathematically speaking the Kenpom system is not capable of picking winners with any statistical significance and that is a fact, not a guess. (statistical significance is 85% correlation if you were unaware). You are reading it the wrong way and misquoting (more than once) what I wrote. I don' t think this is forum for all of that. Although I will say I genuinely appreciate the constructive nature of disagreement you have written. This is a great board. Let's keep it that way.

Even further, since Kenpom started publishing, his top 8 ranked teams have failed to make it to the elite 8 well more than 50% of the time.

Regardless of what you read or picking individual games, this is again "mixing metaphores." The numbers are the numbers, you can't change them.

Let's just focus on Saturday.
 
#571      
AirTran
Illini2010-11 said:
The only way that this logic makes mathematical sense is that you assume all teams rosters are balanced and of equal strength year in and out. It is laughable to assume that the 16 seed has the same chance of winning the national championship as a 1 seed, which is essentially what you are arguing. The hard data states otherwise. Likewise, you are suggesting that the UCONN super team of 2023-2024 only had a .5^6 or 1.6% chance of winning the championship. You are the only person I have ever heard make this argument.

Of course, there is no computer model that will prove to ever be overly accurate. However, to state as a matter of fact that one individual game as a coin flip will be more accurate than advanced metrics is something that no data scientist will ever agree to.

However, you are correct about Saturday. It will be a near virtual coin flip.
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I understand what you are saying and over the years I have heard the emotional argument repeatedly. But that's not correct either. A more simple way of saying this is you cannot predict Missouri beating either Florida or Nebraska. There is no data to create a mathematical paradigm to make that prediction. Same with High Point vs. Wisconsin or the for that matter UCLA or Wisconsin beating Illinois (twice). There are no "systems" that can accurately predict winners for the top 100 teams consistently at a rate better than 50-55%.

For any type of stochastic probability to have value it must run true a minimum of 80% of the time. There are no college basketball algorythms that come close to that number. Argue all you want, those are the facts not a guess. Why do you think sports betting is one of the fastest growing revenue generators in the entertainment industry? A: Because its great cashflow with little capital investment. There are no systems that can come close to 60% let alone 80% accuracy. Now if you are taking bets on 1,500 - 2,000 games a year, its easy money.

I understand the sentiment and emotion about "it can't be a coin flip" and have been listening to it for years. I have been an Illinois fan for 60 years. Math is math, data is data. The game of basketball certianly has changed since Lew Alcindor and UCLA beat us by 38 at Chicago Stadium (my first game) right after the '67 blizzard. But mathematics have not change. However, the ability to calculate stochastic probability and store data has changed significantly more than college hoop or mathematical approach.
 
#572      
PapaKvells
Illini2010-11 said:
This is all very interesting, and does show that UCONN has done nearly the impossible. However, I am not sold on the basis of your calculation. You are taking probabilistic assumptions that every game is inherently a 50/50 probability of one outcome or the other. We know this is not true. UCONN built a juggernaut during this stretch, and many of their games were significantly higher than a coin flip outcome (due to both coaching and superior rosters). Those teams have absolutely no significance on this year. The truth is that when the games are more of a coin flip, UCONN plays almost exactly to the coin flip outcome.

They have no doubt had a heck of a run, but I think karma says that their luck is about to run out. The OP is correct to not read way too much in the recent UCONN dominance from a pure win/loss perspective. There is very good reason to think that Illinois has a very good shot at winning this game.
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Good point. The Globetrottets have a great record when they play the Washington Generals. But if they play the Charlotte Hornets…
 
#575      
Illini2010-11
AirTran said:
I understand what you are saying and over the years I have heard the emotional argument repeatedly. But that's not correct either. A more simple way of saying this is you cannot predict Missouri beating either Florida or Nebraska. There is no data to create a mathematical paradigm to make that prediction. Same with High Point vs. Wisconsin or the for that matter UCLA or Wisconsin beating Illinois (twice). There are no "systems" that can accurately predict winners for the top 100 teams consistently at a rate better than 50-55%.

For any type of stochastic probability to have value it must run true a minimum of 80% of the time. There are no college basketball algorythms that come close to that number. Argue all you want, those are the facts not a guess. Why do you think sports betting is one of the fastest growing revenue generators in the entertainment industry? A: Because its great cashflow with little capital investment. There are no systems that can come close to 60% let alone 80% accuracy. Now if you are taking bets on 1,500 - 2,000 games a year, its easy money.

I understand the sentiment and emotion about "it can't be a coin flip" and have been listening to it for years. I have been an Illinois fan for 60 years. Math is math, data is data. The game of basketball certianly has changed since Lew Alcindor and UCLA beat us by 38 at Chicago Stadium (my first game) right after the '67 blizzard. But mathematics have not change. However, the ability to calculate stochastic probability and store data has changed significantly more than college hoop or mathematical approach.
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Confused Always Sunny GIF by It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia


Honestly not sure what you are trying to prove. Nobody here has said a computer model will fully accurately predict an outcome, but to default that every game should be assumed to be a coin flip, and therefore UCONN only had 1.6% chance of winning in 2024 is intentionally misleading. You are suggesting that we (or heck, the 16 seeds) had the same odds that season, and that is crazy!
 
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