Tomorrow night I believe. 15 days.
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread
Bored at work so I decided to look at the minutes distribution of the last 10 champions to see how deep their rotations went. Here's what I found:
- There's not one blueprint for success when it comes to minutes distribution.
- Here's the averages though
30+ mins = 2 players
25-30 mins = 2 players
20-25 mins = 2 players
15-20 mins = 1 player
10-15 mins = 2 players
Just based on this, I would expect:
30+ = Vaaks and Mirk
25-30 = Andrej and Coleman
20-25 = Tomi and Big Z
15-20 = Morillo
10-15 = Jake and whichever of the other freshmen that play the best
Of course all this could change depending on who else we bring in and I can also see Andrej and Coleman in the 30+ range as well
- There's not one blueprint for success when it comes to minutes distribution.
- Here's the averages though
30+ mins = 2 players
25-30 mins = 2 players
20-25 mins = 2 players
15-20 mins = 1 player
10-15 mins = 2 players
Just based on this, I would expect:
30+ = Vaaks and Mirk
25-30 = Andrej and Coleman
20-25 = Tomi and Big Z
15-20 = Morillo
10-15 = Jake and whichever of the other freshmen that play the best
Of course all this could change depending on who else we bring in and I can also see Andrej and Coleman in the 30+ range as well
Here’s what I’m struggling with: We were ready to offer John Blackwell 4-5 million dollars. Ethan Brown or whoever else you want to discuss was on the squad when those conversations were ongoing, correct?
So Blackwell and his posse back off and now we have decided we’re good. Why??? I am not advocating that they have to spend 4-5 million dollars, but there is no reason to not spend a portion of that money and bring in a solid player. You can never have too much depth.
@PepeSilvia brought up a good point yesterday. Michigan lost LJ Cason in February and they were able to withstand that significant loss because of superior depth.
So Blackwell and his posse back off and now we have decided we’re good. Why??? I am not advocating that they have to spend 4-5 million dollars, but there is no reason to not spend a portion of that money and bring in a solid player. You can never have too much depth.
@PepeSilvia brought up a good point yesterday. Michigan lost LJ Cason in February and they were able to withstand that significant loss because of superior depth.
Yup. I think once you get past 4 you get more into x team was better but underperformed or y team worse worse but underperformed but those are my top 4 as well.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
If we're talking talent level, 02 and 87 need to be way up there.
Three of the top six… at what point is Brad the best Illinois coach ever? (Clearly, next April when we win the natty, but if that doesn’t happen).
soupy17
- MI
Of course I missed Zens, thanks for those who pointed it out.
That 05-06 team was a two man show.
I am not great at math, but it seems we have 3 starters back in Tomi, Mirk and Andrej (technically, he came off the bench...to replace Jake, who also is back). So if it's 3 instead of 2, that's a 20% increase in starters back from the FF team or 50% better to have 3 than 2. Like I said, I struggle with math.
I think the suggestions for possible improvements are respectful and aren't implying any doom. Maybe they're bad ideas or undersell our current roster or are wishful thinking, but the staff made it clear they also wanted even more in their attempt to get Blackwell, so it's kind of ironic to criticize anyone wishing for more.
Last year's team ended the season ranked #5-7 in KenPom/Torvik/EvanMiya. Teams like that go into the NCAAT with ~7% odds to win it all, and our pre-season odds are currently around that also. With those odds every year, we'd have a ~50% chance of a natty in 10 years. Brad has brought us so far to even be thinking about this right now. And I think he would agree that we'd like those chances to continue to get better- meaning we need a handful of teams meaningfully better than last year's.
Maybe there's nothing else that can be done this year because we can't force whoever we want to play here, but we don't have to insult respectful opinions (much less the people sharing them).
I wouldn’t say it’s meaningless, but his eFG is about the same as Andrej so we can go that route too.
Simply put, he’s a bad fit with this current group because all he offers is scoring, which we have plenty of and thus makes zero sense to spend $5M+ to get something we already have.
Editing to add for all of the talk of his scoring ability, he didn’t even lead a 3rd tier Wisconsin team in scoring last season.
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This team has so many great personalities and variance of personalities it got me to thinking. If you could add one player from past Illinois teams that you could plug into this team, who would like that to be? Some will look at skill sets, some at athleticism, but whatever reason I think it would be fun just to discuss, dream and laugh about and maybe distract lol. My very first thought was L. Johnson just because I can't help but laugh and think of him and Mirk on and off the court. Good lord there would be interviews of Johnson or Mirk with a black eye or some minor injury from practice almost weekly. The hatred the team would receive from other teams fans on the road games would be deafening. lol Coleman would have a blast with this team as well
Technically, don’t think we’re done though. Insiders are indicating we’ll probably target someone after the portal closes.
Personally, I’m not convinced it’ll necessarily be a “guard” though.
I mean you're using the loophole. I just stated who started. You can make a good argument he was a pseudo starter.....but thats the loophole.
illiniswish09
- Northwest Suburbs
Come on now
201154JC
- Rockford, IL
As much as I love the 88-89 team, the 04-05 team is the best Illini team ever as they came within a couple of plays short of 39-0. If James doesn't fumble the pass under the basket, Sylvester doesn't even get the three point shot off. It was so fun watching him play so awful in the BIG Tourney in person at the United Center that year. He was booed every time he touched the ball.
Secondly, hadn't we fallen so far behind NC, are legs wouldn't have been too tired to make those go ahead 3's at the end of the game.
The 88-89 team may have been more entertaining, however, the 04-05 team had the best guard trio in the history of D1 basketball.
Secondly, hadn't we fallen so far behind NC, are legs wouldn't have been too tired to make those go ahead 3's at the end of the game.
The 88-89 team may have been more entertaining, however, the 04-05 team had the best guard trio in the history of D1 basketball.
2005 Illinois is essentially 2025 MSU and we saw the trouble that could pose to IL. Remember Dee was 2nd team AA, Augie 1st team B10, Randle all B10 D, Smith all B10 freshman and Frazier went on to 3 all B10 D teams (and was already a dog).
Talent:
Vaaks vs Dee - Dee
Mirk vs Augie - Mirk but it's close
Andrej vs McBride - Andrej
Tomi vs Pruitt - Tomi
Davis vs Randle - Tie
Bench- Z, Coleman & Morillo vs Smith, Carter & Frazier - 2026 but given that Coleman/Morillo have not suited up it's hard to say this is a significant advantage.
Coach
Brad>Bruce
Who wins?
I think 26 Illinois would beat 05 IL by 5 to 10
I agree. Think we are good at the guard spot. Wagler/Bos/Lee/Petro are replaced with Vaaks/Coleman/Morillo/Brown. Might want to find a decent 4 to replace Ben's minutes or Jake and Z just get a lot more minutes.
Just saying. You used it as an argument for why we should be concerned about this team, but if Jake started over Andrej next year that would mean 3 starters from the final four instead of 2 - and we both know (rightfully so) that wouldn’t make you feel any better, because it’s the same depth regardless - which seems like your main (and very fair) point.
Also, I’m not entirely convinced Jake isn’t starting some games yet next year anyway.
CrazedUIFan
UI Fan in QC Land
I have doubts this is true.
What you’re doing is willfully ignoring returning production
What he’s doing is including it, because well… it should be included/considered
Again, Coleman didn't sign util yesterday. The freshmen had "committed" but that's pretty meaningless, until July.
A couple months ago Coleman was "Committed" to Wake Forest...
I don't know if he stays here if Blackwell enters the picture. I don't know if we could afford a 5-star guard if we paid Blackwell 5 million.
What I do know is that Blackwell backed off, and THEN Coleman signed his LOI.
Do you think that was coincidence? I don't.
Also, we can clearly see that Andrej returning and backing off of John Blackhole happened simultaneously as well
Who's the 3rd option? Morillo?