How I see this year:
Floor 5-7
Ceiling 9-3
1. Biggest concerns are OL replacement and DL replacement.
1(a) - our OL was not great last year. Luke was running for his life on more than one occasion and we had the 92nd ranked rushing offense. 12th in the big ten.
1(b) - our DL landed at 40th against the run last year. Firmly middle-of-the-pack in big ten.
Conclusion - Luke masked a lot of that with his legs and low turnover ratio, so itās incumbent on Katin Houser to be able to replicate that recipe if those donāt improve. I see this ultimately being a wash on defense and probably a slight regression on offensive line.
2. Schedule
Should be wins: 3 (UAB, Duke, Southern)
- Iām gonna count them all as wins. No Darian Mensah, and at home, makes me feel like Duke won't be a tough one. (3-0 start to the season)
Good odds: 4 (Purdue, MSU, Maryland, Nebraska)
- Pat Fitzgerald on the road scares me, but I feel good about everything else here. Iād expect a 3-1 grouping here.
Toss up: 1 (Northwestern)
- itās not been easy lately, and they did go win a bowl game last year. I just have a feeling Aidan Chiles will fit in well there against us. Iām gonna count it as a loss on the road in their new stadium. 0-1.
Bad odds: 2 (UCLA, Iowa)
- UCLA is tough at home. Iowa is tough no matter what. I donāt see a win here. 0-2.
Should be a loss: 2 (Ohio State, Oregon)
- forget about it. 0-2.
As of this very moment, I could see us 6-3 with 3 weeks to go and sputtering to 6-6 at the finish. I donāt think thatās puts a good taste in anyoneās mouth, but I think thatās a realistic (albeit slightly pessimistic) look. Now, if the OL improves and Houser is good I think picking up 2-3 games in there is totally doable. The reality is that the āweaknessā on defense really wasnāt a strength last year, so itās mostly incumbent on them holding serve and having the offense take off.
Now, optimistically, if the offense gels quick and we have a 3-3-5 revelation, yeah I could see 9-3 or maybe 10-2 happening, but I think itās a lot to ask to reload like that.