Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#76      
PepeSilvia
HoopsterMan said:
I don't think Kon was a guard at all, I think he was a SF. Duke had ridiculous talent at SF, PF and C. Sion James and Tyrese Proctor were an imbalanced backcourt. Scheyer tried to go positionless with Flagg as a point forward - bad idea.

There is a difference in play/style at the college level and NBA. In CBB they're kids, haven't faced major pressure and usually only play together for 1-2 years these days. NBA are men, play together for years. Why the PG is a factor in college.
Click to expand...
Kon had the ball in his hands a ton especially by the end of the season. Feel like he was bringing the ball up more than Flagg towards the end. I don't really think Scheyer made a mistake, they were legitimately the best team in the country by a ton. They just had an all time choke in the last 5 minutes.

On the other note, I think PG is a huge factor in the NBA too. I don't think it's a surprise that you've seen the Thunder, Pacers, and Knicks have a ton of recent success.

The spurs shared duties a bit more than the rest and Wemby is obviously a freak but I think the lack of point guards in the NBA also benefits them. You see a lot of teams that play San Antonio trot out "point guards" that legitimately can not dribble the ball up the court against Castle and it derails their offense(similarly the Thompson twins create this issue for a lot of teams).

Going position less might be great for the regular season but the last two playoffs have been dominated by SGA, Brunson, and Haliburton.
 
#77      
AnnoyedWithGarza
RollChief said:
Modified your statement a bit but totally agree. It's impossible to replace KW but Vaaks seems like a great action initiator in our offensive scheme. Someone else mentioned it but his ability to shoot off the bounce will draw so much defensive attention which will allow the rest of our offensive talent to gain advantages each possession, especially if guys are getting downhill to offensive rebound and keep that OReb% one of the best in the country.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure the PG on the offensive end is the initiator of the offense. So instead of being overly verbose, I'll just stick to calling Vaaks our PG.
 
#78      
Fly Illini Fly!
Here's the reason we seem to miss so many "easy" shots against UCONN: they are continuously a top team in 2pt% allowed on shots at the rim.

Out of 79 HM teams, here's where they've ranked each year in opponent rim% allowed:

2026: 1st
2025: 1st
2024: 2nd
2023: 6th
2022: 5th
2021: 2nd

How do they do it? Well, they're willingly terrible at Free Throw Rate Defense. Out of 79 HM teams, here's where they've ranked:

2026: 77th
2025: 79th
2024: 37th
2023: 72nd
2022: 60th
2021: 74th

It's a philosophy of: be super aggressive, foul a bunch, and if you get away with it you force the missed shot.

.....

The contrast with Illinois:

we were 42nd in rim% defense, but 1st in Free Throw Rate Defense. (out of 79 HM teams)

UCONN was 1st in rim% defense, but 77th in Free Throw Rate Defense. (out of 79 HM teams)
 
Last edited:
#79      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Here's the reason we seem to miss so many "easy" shots against UCONN: they are continuously a top team in 2pt% allowed on shots at the rim.

Out of 79 HM teams, here's where they've ranked each year in opponent rim% allowed:

2026: 1st
2025: 1st
2024: 2nd
2023: 6th
2022: 5th
2021: 2nd

How do they do it? Well, they're willingly terrible at Free Throw Rate Defense. Out of 79 HM teams, here's where they've ranked:

2026: 77th
2025: 79th
2024: 37th
2023: 72nd
2022: 60th
2021: 74th

It's a philosophy of: be super aggressive, foul a bunch, and if you get away with it you force the missed shot.

.....

The contrast with Illinois:

we were 42nd in rim% defense, but 1st in Free Throw Rate Defense. (out of 79 HM teams)

UCONN was 1st in rim% defense, but 77th in Free Throw Rate Defense. (out of 79 HM teams)
Click to expand...
We were the tallest team in the country. I don’t think 42nd in rim defense is something to feel ecstatic about.

I’d be willing to bet all of the recent national champs have had very good rim protection (including UConn with Clingan).
 
Last edited:
#80      
ugottabjoshinme
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I don’t think Fears is the consensus preseason NPOY.

Norlander and Parish did their annual tradition of asking 100 D1 coaches the same questions.

The votes were strongly in favor of Haugh at FLA:

View attachment 51413
Click to expand...
Fears is the oddsmakers favorite currently

1788439379647.png
 
#81      
NarrowJ
PepeSilvia said:
Kon had the ball in his hands a ton especially by the end of the season. Feel like he was bringing the ball up more than Flagg towards the end. I don't really think Scheyer made a mistake, they were legitimately the best team in the country by a ton. They just had an all time choke in the last 5 minutes.

On the other note, I think PG is a huge factor in the NBA too. I don't think it's a surprise that you've seen the Thunder, Pacers, and Knicks have a ton of recent success.

The spurs shared duties a bit more than the rest and Wemby is obviously a freak but I think the lack of point guards in the NBA also benefits them. You see a lot of teams that play San Antonio trot out "point guards" that legitimately can not dribble the ball up the court against Castle and it derails their offense(similarly the Thompson twins create this issue for a lot of teams).

Going position less might be great for the regular season but the last two playoffs have been dominated by SGA, Brunson, and Haliburton.
Click to expand...

SGA and Haliburton more good examples of bigger lead/point guards
 
#82      
hangdog
March2TheArch said:
I'd love to adopt your view on this. But any time a 250lb human has an injury on a foot he's constantly pivoting, cutting, jumping, etc. off you want to be cautiously optimistic.

2 months away from full speed, full contact basketball during prime prepratory months of August / September will create a debt of strength & conditioning and team chemisty build with a new cast (Coleman, Vaaks, Lincoln Williams). That said, if there's any guy I trust to get right physically and mentally quickly it would be Dah-veed Mir-kovic.
Click to expand...
meer-KOH-vich
 
#83      
Fly Illini Fly!
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
We were the tallest team in the country. I don’t think 42nd in rim defense is something to feel ecstatic about.

I’d be willing to bet all of the recent national champs have had very good rim protection (including UConn with Clingan).
Click to expand...
Yes, despite being the tallest team amongst High Majors (and in the country) -- we were 42nd amongst High Majors in rim% allowed.

The 2nd tallest team, Duke, was 14th in rim% allowed.

The 3rd tallest team, Missouri, was 21st in rim% allowed.

The 4th tallest team, North Carolina, was 15th in rim% allowed.

The 5th tallest team, Arizona, was 7th in rim% allowed.

(Pardon me, Arizona St. at 6th and 51st)

The 7th tallest team, USC, was 23rd in rim% allowed.

The 8th tallest team, Florida, was 4th in rim% allowed.

....

You could look at it two different ways: its either an area for improvement next year OR it's just the byproduct of going all-in on not fouling.

Being able to do both -- great rim% defense AND great FT rate defense -- is where you see defenses like Duke / Arizona / Michigan.
 
Last edited:
#86      
HoopsterMan
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Here's the reason we seem to miss so many "easy" shots against UCONN: they are continuously a top team in 2pt% allowed on shots at the rim.

Out of 79 HM teams, here's where they've ranked each year in opponent rim% allowed:

2026: 1st
2025: 1st
2024: 2nd
2023: 6th
2022: 5th
2021: 2nd

How do they do it? Well, they're willingly terrible at Free Throw Rate Defense. Out of 79 HM teams, here's where they've ranked:

2026: 77th
2025: 79th
2024: 37th
2023: 72nd
2022: 60th
2021: 74th

It's a philosophy of: be super aggressive, foul a bunch, and if you get away with it you force the missed shot.

.....

The contrast with Illinois:

we were 42nd in rim% defense, but 1st in Free Throw Rate Defense. (out of 79 HM teams)

UCONN was 1st in rim% defense, but 77th in Free Throw Rate Defense. (out of 79 HM teams)
Click to expand...
In their 4 F4 years, they were ranked 7, 4, 7 in defensive efficiency. Our last 3 years, 80, 40, 20.
 
#87      
Fly Illini Fly!
AnnoyedWithGarza said:
I'm not sure how anyone can watch this and say "not a PG."
Click to expand...
The Vaaks conversation, even outside this board, has been interesting.

I've heard multiple times that he's the "perfect Keaton Wagler replacement" because of the similar size, shooting, playmaking, etc.

Then there's the other party, who make it a priority to prove how he's not a point guard, and that we don't have a point guard.

The hilarious part is how completely different those two evaluations actually are from one another.
 
#88      
RollChief
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Yes, despite being the tallest team amongst High Majors (and in the country) -- we were 42nd amongst High Majors in rim% allowed.

The 2nd tallest team, Duke, was 14th in rim% allowed.

The 3rd tallest team, Missouri, was 21st in rim% allowed.

The 4th tallest team, North Carolina, was 15th in rim% allowed.

The 5th tallest team, Arizona, was 7th in rim% allowed.

(Pardon me, Arizona St. at 6th and 51st)

The 7th tallest team, USC, was 23rd in rim% allowed.

The 8th tallest team, Florida, was 4th in rim% allowed.

....

You could look at it two different ways: its either an area for improvement next year OR it's just the byproduct of going all-in on not fouling.

Being able to do both -- great rim% defense AND great FT rate defense -- is where you see defenses like Duke / Arizona / Michigan.
Click to expand...
This is really interesting; with the size advantage we have in the frontcourt, we've got to impose our will defensively at the rim. I would assume being this low among high majors has a lot to do with being #1 in FTA/FGM. To your point, finding the balance (like Michigan) between at-rim aggressiveness and foul avoidance is where you become elite. Just to compare apples-to-apples, where did this data come from?

I think one important 3rd variable to add here is Average 2-point attempt distance (Avg 2PA Dist, added to KenPom this year). We were 7th in the nation with an Avg 2PA Dist of 7 feet. While our rim% wasn't great, we were generally keeping teams away from the rim better than most.
 
#90      
Fly Illini Fly!
RollChief said:
Just to compare apples-to-apples, where did this data come from?
Click to expand...
Torvik.

1st in height:

1000016090.jpg


166th nationally in rim% allowed:

1000016091.jpg


....

After looking at it, the high major label does seem very weird. The team stats has 79 high major teams (which would seem accurate).

But the Team Table has 92. And the shooting splits has 92. (and the rim stats are in shooting splits)

92 is absurd. So comparing nationally is perhaps most reliable.

....

These are the top 8 tallest Power Conference teams:

1. Illinois
2. Duke
3. Missouri
4. North Carolina
5. Arizona
6. ASU
7. USC
8. FLA

These would be their national ranks in rim% allowed:

1. 166th
2. 46th
3. 91st
4. 48th
5. 31st
6. 205th
7. 93rd
8. 15th
RollChief said:
I think one important 3rd variable to add here is Average 2-point attempt distance (Avg 2PA Dist, added to KenPom this year). We were 7th in the nation with an Avg 2PA Dist of 7 feet. While our rim% wasn't great, we were generally keeping teams away from the rim better than most.
Click to expand...
That's likely a good point.

While we were 166th nationally in rim% defense, we were 38th in 2pt% defense.

The 2pt% defense was 13th amongst High Major teams (yes, actually amongst high majors. In the team stats section, that wasn't an issue.)
 
Last edited:
#91      
Fly Illini Fly!
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Torvik.

1st in height:

View attachment 51436

166th nationally in rim% allowed:

View attachment 51435

....

After looking at it, the high major label does seem very weird. The team stats has 79 high major teams (which would seem accurate).

But the Team Table has 92. And the shooting splits has 92. (and the rim stats are in shooting splits)

92 is absurd. So comparing nationally is perhaps most reliable.

....

These are the top 8 tallest Power Conference teams:

1. Illinois
2. Duke
3. Missouri
4. North Carolina
5. Arizona
6. ASU
7. USC
8. FLA

These would be their national ranks in rim% allowed:

1. 166th
2. 46th
3. 91st
4. 48th
5. 31st
6. 205th
7. 93rd
8. 15th

That's likely a good point.

While we were 166th nationally in rim% defense, we were 38th in 2pt% defense.

The 2pt% defense was 13th amongst High Major teams (yes, actually amongst high majors. In the team stats section, that wasn't an issue.)
Click to expand...
P.S. ran out of time to edit: I think what's happening is that the shooting splits and team table counts the American Conference as High Majors.

While the Team Stats don't.
 
#92      
RollChief
AnnoyedWithGarza said:
I'm pretty sure the PG on the offensive end is the initiator of the offense. So instead of being overly verbose, I'll just stick to calling Vaaks our PG.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm not trying to be overly verbose but just trying to emphasize that he's great for our system but doesn't/won't fit the typical PG mold, which is the main hang up you're bringing up where people say he/KW aren't PGs.

Jeremy Fears, Braden Smith, and Donovan Dent, your prototypical great PGs, averaged 8.4, 8.8, and 7.6 assists/game and were ranked 1-3 in the stat. Keaton Wagler had 4.2 assists/game and was ranked 133 in the stat. Mihailo Petrovic, your prototypical PG, averaged 7.3 assists/game at Mega Superbet. KW fit very well into our system and how we initiate offense while Petro did not.

Vaaks had 3.2 assists per game. While he doesn't jump out as a traditional PG statistically or even when you watch him play, he plugs in really well to that role as initiator in a way that prototypical PGs don't.
 
#93      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Torvik.

1st in height:

View attachment 51436

166th nationally in rim% allowed:

View attachment 51435

....

After looking at it, the high major label does seem very weird. The team stats has 79 high major teams (which would seem accurate).

But the Team Table has 92. And the shooting splits has 92. (and the rim stats are in shooting splits)

92 is absurd. So comparing nationally is perhaps most reliable.

....

These are the top 8 tallest Power Conference teams:

1. Illinois
2. Duke
3. Missouri
4. North Carolina
5. Arizona
6. ASU
7. USC
8. FLA

These would be their national ranks in rim% allowed:

1. 166th
2. 46th
3. 91st
4. 48th
5. 31st
6. 205th
7. 93rd
8. 15th

That's likely a good point.

While we were 166th nationally in rim% defense, we were 38th in 2pt% defense.

The 2pt% defense was 13th amongst High Major teams (yes, actually amongst high majors. In the team stats section, that wasn't an issue.)
Click to expand...
If we were 166th, then it would help to be top 100 next year.

Rim protection is very important. It's why Z in many circumstances is more preferable than Tomi (see: end of the Elite 8 game).
 
#94      
mysterio2525
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Here's the reason we seem to miss so many "easy" shots against UCONN: they are continuously a top team in 2pt% allowed on shots at the rim.

Out of 79 HM teams, here's where they've ranked each year in opponent rim% allowed:

2026: 1st
2025: 1st
2024: 2nd
2023: 6th
2022: 5th
2021: 2nd

How do they do it? Well, they're willingly terrible at Free Throw Rate Defense. Out of 79 HM teams, here's where they've ranked:

2026: 77th
2025: 79th
2024: 37th
2023: 72nd
2022: 60th
2021: 74th

It's a philosophy of: be super aggressive, foul a bunch, and if you get away with it you force the missed shot.

.....

The contrast with Illinois:

we were 42nd in rim% defense, but 1st in Free Throw Rate Defense. (out of 79 HM teams)

UCONN was 1st in rim% defense, but 77th in Free Throw Rate Defense. (out of 79 HM teams)
Click to expand...
so essentially the Jordan rules on defense. no easy baskets at the rim. and hope for a loose whistle.
 
#95      
NarrowJ
Given our personnel I think the current scheme works. Tomi is going to play 27+ minutes so a more aggressive “hunt blocks” strategy/scheme would seem out of place.

But this circles me back to my thinking that Z and Tomi minutes should be split more evenly this season. Or, if they can play more together (some success doing this last year, the twin towers lineup was +14 per 40 minutes vs high major opponents).

I also just think the current personnel has a ceiling defensively overall.
 
#98      
HoopsterMan
#99      
HoopsterMan
PepeSilvia said:
Kon had the ball in his hands a ton especially by the end of the season. Feel like he was bringing the ball up more than Flagg towards the end. I don't really think Scheyer made a mistake, they were legitimately the best team in the country by a ton. They just had an all time choke in the last 5 minutes.

On the other note, I think PG is a huge factor in the NBA too. I don't think it's a surprise that you've seen the Thunder, Pacers, and Knicks have a ton of recent success.

The spurs shared duties a bit more than the rest and Wemby is obviously a freak but I think the lack of point guards in the NBA also benefits them. You see a lot of teams that play San Antonio trot out "point guards" that legitimately can not dribble the ball up the court against Castle and it derails their offense(similarly the Thompson twins create this issue for a lot of teams).

Going position less might be great for the regular season but the last two playoffs have been dominated by SGA, Brunson, and Haliburton.
Click to expand...
They wilted against a ferocious full court pressure of Houston, couldn't score, couldn't even get the ball OB. Scheyer should have been prepared for that. Proctor was bouncing balls off his knee, missing front ends. The following year, UConn did the same thing, forced turnovers. Boozer was playing point, dribbling it away, Evans falling down. Playing with a non traditional point can be fine if the other side is ok with a passive, half court defense. It's what happens when pace if pushed, the other teams pressures full court.

And they also played a slow pace last year.

One of the most genius moves Dusty made against UConn was throwing the FC pressure on for 5-8 minutes in the second half. It totally pulled them out of their stall and sets.

You need to be ready for everything E8 on.
 
Last edited:
Back