BOO!Losses in BOLD
Nebraska
at Indiana
USC
BOO!Losses in BOLD
Nebraska
at Indiana
USC
Yeah, not sure how we can be a much better team, be talked about as a contender, elite, and have tons of returning productionA lot of these predictions are second or third seed records. Personally, I ain't seeing that happening.
The current absence of our All-American has an impact on record predictions.Yeah, not sure how we can be a much better team, be talked about as a contender, elite, and have tons of returning production
… while only having a record for lower 2 or 3 seeds
Those predictions are assuming a fully healthy roster. David is one of our best players if not our best player, and the timeline of his return is entirely unclear.Yeah, not sure how we can be a much better team, be talked about as a contender, elite, and have tons of returning production
… while only having a record for lower 2 or 3 seeds
Halloween started early!BOO!
The current absence of our All-American has an impact on record predictions.
Listen, I understand the absence of Mirk factoring into our projections. I truly do. But many of them don’t stop at the first portion when Mirk is presumably out, and have us losing basically every marquee game this season. Are we insinuating that this team is essentially Penn State in football, that can only beat up on cupcake teams and cannot beat any ranked opponents? With or without Mirk? Please tell me if that is what I’m missing.Those predictions are assuming a fully healthy roster. David is one of our best players if not our best player, and the timeline of his return is entirely unclear.
Those predictions also aren't taking into account that there are defensive issues with players who are slated to play a lot for us, and our depth is unproven.
I think a 3ish seed is a fair predicition.
Listen, I understand the absence of Mirk factoring into our projections. I truly do. But many of them don’t stop at the first portion when Mirk is presumably out, and have us losing basically every marquee game this season. Are we insinuating that this team is essentially Penn State in football, that can only beat up on cupcake teams and cannot beat any ranked opponents? With or without Mirk? Please tell me if that is what I’m missing.
But if, even with injuries, we’re struggling to get to 20+ wins then I just think we cannot say this team is capable of being determined “Good” or “Great.” Not beating a single team of value non-conference (TTU, UConn, MISSOURI?!) or in-conference (MSU, Purdue, Ohio state??)? These are constantly quoted games from what I take are those skeptical about our team without Mirk. And look, I get a reality check, sure. It doesn’t mean pessimism immediately, but that just comes across as not thinking Brad is capable of leading a team with excellent depth and skill. Recruits we tout all offseason. And yes I’m saying that as whether or not Mirk plays a minute this season.
The depth we have, the experience we have, and the dogs we have on this team should put us at 24+ wins minimum if we can assume we’re a top program in the country, and capable of cutting down nets, ever.
Have faith in this staff and team. These guys aren’t going to waste the last year of the Ivisic twins, Davis, Stojakovic, etc. just because “uh-oh a good player is out. Better wrap it up and try again next year (like we always say)”
Maybe I’m a homer, but this team is good. This team is great. Lose a couple in the beginning while waiting for Mirk, sure. But a healthy Mirk and chemistry firing on all cylinders, and this team is a 1 or 2 seed. Let’s Go, Game On!
Here is every poster’s prediction so far:Listen, I understand the absence of Mirk factoring into our projections. I truly do. But many of them don’t stop at the first portion when Mirk is presumably out, and have us losing basically every marquee game this season. Are we insinuating that this team is essentially Penn State in football, that can only beat up on cupcake teams and cannot beat any ranked opponents? With or without Mirk? Please tell me if that is what I’m missing.
But if, even with injuries, we’re struggling to get to 20+ wins then I just think we cannot say this team is capable of being determined “Good” or “Great.” Not beating a single team of value non-conference (TTU, UConn, MISSOURI?!) or in-conference (MSU, Purdue, Ohio state??)? These are constantly quoted games from what I take are those skeptical about our team without Mirk. And look, I get a reality check, sure. It doesn’t mean pessimism immediately, but that just comes across as not thinking Brad is capable of leading a team with excellent depth and skill. Recruits we tout all offseason. And yes I’m saying that as whether or not Mirk plays a minute this season.
The depth we have, the experience we have, and the dogs we have on this team should put us at 24+ wins minimum if we can assume we’re a top program in the country, and capable of cutting down nets, ever.
Have faith in this staff and team. These guys aren’t going to waste the last year of the Ivisic twins, Davis, Stojakovic, etc. just because “uh-oh a good player is out. Better wrap it up and try again next year (like we always say)”
Maybe I’m a homer, but this team is good. This team is great. Lose a couple in the beginning while waiting for Mirk, sure. But a healthy Mirk and chemistry firing on all cylinders, and this team is a 1 or 2 seed. Let’s Go, Game On!
Yeah fair call about the record recap, we’ve just gotta be looking at 24 wins minimum without Mirk, as these guys are still excellent. I think I see us as 15-20, maybe a tad better, without him; which is a unique spot to be in. And I could also be combining certain teams others expect us to lose to all into one single “aggregated” loss prediction. Do we win all non-cons? No. Do we lose all marquee non-cons? Also no. This team without Mirk will win against ranked opponents. For Conference schedule, we always have one or a couple we shouldn’t piss away. But I factor Mirk being in, and if you take Miya, KenPom, all the metric platforms, a fully healthy and clicking Illini team is Juggernaut level. Not just good, in the conversations of Michigan, Arizona, and Duke last year.Here is every poster’s prediction so far:
27-5
24-8
24-8
22-10
25-7
27-5
26-6
25-7
41-0
41-0
26-6
26-6
29-3
25-7
23-9
27-5
Just two posters have us below 24-8. Most posters have us in the 25-27 win range. Which is a 1-2 seed.
Without Mirk, we likely drop a non-con game we would’ve won. And Mirk’s absence isn’t just about the games he’ll miss, but the practices he’ll miss, the conditioning he’ll need, and the role adjustments by everyone else when we comes back.
Like it or not, the Mirk injury is likely going to have a huge impact on the wins & losses this season. My personal goal is to have everyone healthy and clicking on all cylinders by March.
I know you are summarizing general lines of thoughts from many posters, so this is not a critique of your post ... just using it to launch my own conversation....
- Fully healthy David Mirkovic = top 3 team
- No David Mirkovic = fringe top 20 team
- Some in-between where we're without David Mirkovic for the first month and then he spends another 3-4 weeks getting up to speed = ???
...
That is correct! Several times over the years, I have tried to create an all-time program ranking system of the Big Ten schools using as many relevant categories as I can find ... and this is always one where we stack up surprisingly poorly compared to the other historically good programs in the league. We've had two very unfortunately closer calls in recent years, too ... and more than a few losses that could have been flipped and gotten us to 30 Ws!would love a 30-win season. i believe we only have two, '89 and '05.
Also going off of last season there is very little margin of error for a 1 seed. Granted that changes from season to season, sometimes a 1 seed is much more attainable for a wider group of teams. Last season 3/4 1 seeds has 2-3 losses. Depending on how long it takes to get Mirkovic back we could already be facing TTU, Duke and UConn without our best player. Even if we win 1/3 of those we're already basically through our allowance of losses before we start worrying about other teams catching us.Here is every poster’s prediction so far:
27-5
24-8
24-8
22-10
25-7
27-5
26-6
25-7
41-0
41-0
26-6
26-6
29-3
25-7
23-9
27-5
Just two posters have us below 24-8. Most posters have us in the 25-27 win range. Which is a 1-2 seed.
Without Mirk, we likely drop a non-con game we would’ve won. And Mirk’s absence isn’t just about the games he’ll miss, but the practices he’ll miss, the conditioning he’ll need, and the role adjustments by everyone else when we comes back.
Like it or not, the Mirk injury is likely going to have a huge impact on the wins & losses this season. My personal goal is to have everyone healthy and clicking on all cylinders by March.
2023-2024: 29-9
Don't think you are a homer at all. That's me. I'm the homer.
I think the thought process is:
- Fully healthy David Mirkovic = top 3 team
- No David Mirkovic = fringe top 20 team
- Some in-between where we're without David Mirkovic for the first month and then he spends another 3-4 weeks getting up to speed = ???
The last one is where most folks are landing prediction wise, and a 2/3 seed is actually fairly optimistic if that's the true timeline. We're starting a 6-6 200lb dude at the 4 right now, so defense and rebounding will be a struggle, imo.
I totally agree with you that if we get David Mirkovic back in a reasonable timeframe, a 1/2 seed is not only doable, but probably likely. This class of freshmen is really something, and that was the question mark for this team prior to the injuries.
I have my doubts about “top 3 team” even if we have Mirk.I know you are summarizing general lines of thoughts from many posters, so this is not a critique of your post ... just using it to launch my own conversation.However, there is definitely a lot of nuance and therefore middle categories in there.
For example, "above" your range is if we are fully healthy (including having Mirk) and our freshman collectively are replacing Keaton's production ... we might vault to being the best team in the nation. Somewhere in between your top 3 and top 20 categories might be if we don't have Mirk but the remaining guys step up in a huge way (e.g., the twins are playing to their potential and with energy, Andrej fully steps up as our leader, the freshmen continue to impress, Brad and Co. are able to correctly diagnose AND fix the defensive issues, etc.). That might still be a bona fide top 10 team.
Your last point is the biggie, though ... and it will lead to two broad questions come March (April) that will define our ceiling, IMO.
1) Regardless of any hiccups and setbacks in November and December, are we fully "tuned up" and playing to our potential come March Madness?
2) JUST how much damage did we take early on, and how much did it affect our seed? Yes, we made the Final Four as a #3 seed last year ... but the stats over the long haul are clear, and they say your odds of playing in April are drastically higher if you can get a #1 seed. We might be "#1 seed good" by the time of the Tournament, but if we have a #3 seed again, we could end up playing one of our expected Final Four opponents in the Elite Eight instead, playing with fire regarding cutting another magical run short.
The team has a very high floor. I believe EvanMiya put out that Illinois has a 90% chance of their final ranking falling between 1-16 nationally.Here is every poster’s prediction so far:
27-5
24-8
24-8
22-10
25-7
27-5
26-6
25-7
41-0
41-0
26-6
26-6
29-3
25-7
23-9
27-5
Just two posters have us below 24-8. Most posters have us in the 25-27 win range. Which is a 1-2 seed.
Without Mirk, we likely drop a non-con game we would’ve won. And Mirk’s absence isn’t just about the games he’ll miss, but the practices he’ll miss, the conditioning he’ll need, and the role adjustments by everyone else when we comes back.
Like it or not, the Mirk injury is likely going to have a huge impact on the wins & losses this season. My personal goal is to have everyone healthy and clicking on all cylinders by March.
This.Listen, I understand the absence of Mirk factoring into our projections. I truly do. But many of them don’t stop at the first portion when Mirk is presumably out, and have us losing basically every marquee game this season. Are we insinuating that this team is essentially Penn State in football, that can only beat up on cupcake teams and cannot beat any ranked opponents? With or without Mirk? Please tell me if that is what I’m missing.
But if, even with injuries, we’re struggling to get to 20+ wins then I just think we cannot say this team is capable of being determined “Good” or “Great.” Not beating a single team of value non-conference (TTU, UConn, MISSOURI?!) or in-conference (MSU, Purdue, Ohio state??)? These are constantly quoted games from what I take are those skeptical about our team without Mirk. And look, I get a reality check, sure. It doesn’t mean pessimism immediately, but that just comes across as not thinking Brad is capable of leading a team with excellent depth and skill. Recruits we tout all offseason. And yes I’m saying that as whether or not Mirk plays a minute this season.
The depth we have, the experience we have, and the dogs we have on this team should put us at 24+ wins minimum if we can assume we’re a top program in the country, and capable of cutting down nets, ever.
Have faith in this staff and team. These guys aren’t going to waste the last year of the Ivisic twins, Davis, Stojakovic, etc. just because “uh-oh a good player is out. Better wrap it up and try again next year (like we always say)”
Maybe I’m a homer, but this team is good. This team is great. Lose a couple in the beginning while waiting for Mirk, sure. But a healthy Mirk and chemistry firing on all cylinders, and this team is a 1 or 2 seed. Let’s Go, Game On!
We've had some stinkers vs. PSU this decade, and I do not recall which year would have been a "hangover" game, though I suspect the absolute dud loss in 2022-23 at home might be what you are remembering? They swept us all three games that year.knew last year we didn't quite make it, but forgot we were thisclose in '24. was that the hungover penn state game?