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2017 Basketball Transfer Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="Rob07" data-source="post: 1315345" data-attributes="member: 57270"><p>I've been thinking about the expected value of Underwood at Illinois from a Bayesian perspective. Each event should lead us to update our prior assumption about how good he will be here:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Didn't bring any OSU assistants along: Concerning, how much did his staff contribute to his success?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Brings in Orlando Antigua: Unexpectedly big name, we aren't used to running with the big boys like this</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Re-confirmed commitments from Frazier, Pickett, Da'Monte Williams: You expect to keep Pickett and DMW but keeping an out-of-state recruit is a big win</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Brings in Chin Coleman: About what we expected, "replacement level player", a bit nervous that we aren't bringing in a system guy?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Brings in Gentry: Whew, system guy.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Re-commitment of Tilmon: Wow! Amazing!</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">De-commitment of Tilmon: Damn, this makes the move to retain Walker look dumb</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">De-commitment of Pickett: Not a big deal -- appears that this was mutual</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Commitment of Mark Smith: Wow! A win against Izzo, Calipari and K? Unexpectedly good and justifies retaining Walker.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Transfer of DJ Williams: Well, we would have lost him if Groce stayed as well, but it's disappointing that Underwood wasn't able to get him to buy in</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Misses on several decent transfer candidates: Hmm, should we have aimed lower for depth?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Possible transfer of JCL: Ugh, this looks really bad.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Incoming transfer of Mark Alstork: OK, this cancels out the JCL news.</li> </ul><p></p><p>Overall, I think we are doing <strong>better</strong> than I expected given the retention of Frazier and the additions of Mark Smith and Alstork, although the loss of Tilmon was a big blow and the losses of DJW and JCL are disappointing.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Rob07, post: 1315345, member: 57270"] I've been thinking about the expected value of Underwood at Illinois from a Bayesian perspective. Each event should lead us to update our prior assumption about how good he will be here: [LIST] [*]Didn't bring any OSU assistants along: Concerning, how much did his staff contribute to his success? [*]Brings in Orlando Antigua: Unexpectedly big name, we aren't used to running with the big boys like this [*]Re-confirmed commitments from Frazier, Pickett, Da'Monte Williams: You expect to keep Pickett and DMW but keeping an out-of-state recruit is a big win [*]Brings in Chin Coleman: About what we expected, "replacement level player", a bit nervous that we aren't bringing in a system guy? [*]Brings in Gentry: Whew, system guy. [*]Re-commitment of Tilmon: Wow! Amazing! [*]De-commitment of Tilmon: Damn, this makes the move to retain Walker look dumb [*]De-commitment of Pickett: Not a big deal -- appears that this was mutual [*]Commitment of Mark Smith: Wow! A win against Izzo, Calipari and K? Unexpectedly good and justifies retaining Walker. [*]Transfer of DJ Williams: Well, we would have lost him if Groce stayed as well, but it's disappointing that Underwood wasn't able to get him to buy in [*]Misses on several decent transfer candidates: Hmm, should we have aimed lower for depth? [*]Possible transfer of JCL: Ugh, this looks really bad. [*]Incoming transfer of Mark Alstork: OK, this cancels out the JCL news. [/LIST] Overall, I think we are doing [b]better[/b] than I expected given the retention of Frazier and the additions of Mark Smith and Alstork, although the loss of Tilmon was a big blow and the losses of DJW and JCL are disappointing. [/QUOTE]
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