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2019-2020 Predictions Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="dbeverly26" data-source="post: 1481413" data-attributes="member: 515868"><p>I'm more bearish on this team than most in this thread, but if losing Aaron Jordan is your biggest issue you can't feel too bad about things. Not bagging on the kid as your points above are well taken, but it's much, much easier to replace a role player than a star.</p><p></p><p>To return to your original post, I share a number of your concerns. But this team's floor isn't a repeat of 12-21, if for no other reason than the schedule is much easier. They have three difficult nonconference games instead of five, and are more likely to go something like 5-2 against Northwestern, Nebraska, IU, and Iowa this year instead of 2-6 simply by virtue of those teams taking significant steps back (assuming Bohannon sits). So that baseline starts to look more like 16 or 17 wins even if there's no improvement at all.</p><p></p><p>As for Underwood installing his system in a time of mass player turnover, we're not in a time of mass player turnover. We return 81% of our minutes, which is good for second in the league. UMD is at 83%, but the minutes they lost were far more valuable than ours. No other team returns more than 71%, with more than half of the league below 60%. That alone is worth something, even if the guys we have coming back lost a lot of games last season.</p><p></p><p>I have them at 19-12, but feel like that's conservative. Like you, I have doubts about how much Ayo and Giorgi improve, and for the same reasons. I think that they'll be better and more consistent, but am not expecting a huge leap. I think that one of Griffin or Jones will take a major leap, and that Kipper lands somewhere between the 2018 version ("good Kipper") than the 2019 version ("bad Kipper"), and "medium Kipper" gives you a lot of things that you've lost with AJ. And I think that Kofi will look like a freshman at times, but even if he does there's a yawning chasm between what he has to offer and what Kane or a one-legged Adonis did.</p><p></p><p>None of the above is unrealistically optimistic, imo, but I still think there's way more upside than downside. Ayo could blossom into a lottery pick. Giorgi could round out his game and get stronger on defense. Kofi could be a major contributor from day one. Griffin could get stronger with the ball and be the shooter he is in practice. Kipper could consistently knock down threes and help open up the floor. Any one of those things would transform the team. But in terms of downside, what is there? Losing Aaron Jordan and not being able to replace him? That still gets you to the edge of the bubble conversation.</p><p></p><p>I expect some rough patches but remain hopeful that I'll be pleasantly surprised.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="dbeverly26, post: 1481413, member: 515868"] I'm more bearish on this team than most in this thread, but if losing Aaron Jordan is your biggest issue you can't feel too bad about things. Not bagging on the kid as your points above are well taken, but it's much, much easier to replace a role player than a star. To return to your original post, I share a number of your concerns. But this team's floor isn't a repeat of 12-21, if for no other reason than the schedule is much easier. They have three difficult nonconference games instead of five, and are more likely to go something like 5-2 against Northwestern, Nebraska, IU, and Iowa this year instead of 2-6 simply by virtue of those teams taking significant steps back (assuming Bohannon sits). So that baseline starts to look more like 16 or 17 wins even if there's no improvement at all. As for Underwood installing his system in a time of mass player turnover, we're not in a time of mass player turnover. We return 81% of our minutes, which is good for second in the league. UMD is at 83%, but the minutes they lost were far more valuable than ours. No other team returns more than 71%, with more than half of the league below 60%. That alone is worth something, even if the guys we have coming back lost a lot of games last season. I have them at 19-12, but feel like that's conservative. Like you, I have doubts about how much Ayo and Giorgi improve, and for the same reasons. I think that they'll be better and more consistent, but am not expecting a huge leap. I think that one of Griffin or Jones will take a major leap, and that Kipper lands somewhere between the 2018 version ("good Kipper") than the 2019 version ("bad Kipper"), and "medium Kipper" gives you a lot of things that you've lost with AJ. And I think that Kofi will look like a freshman at times, but even if he does there's a yawning chasm between what he has to offer and what Kane or a one-legged Adonis did. None of the above is unrealistically optimistic, imo, but I still think there's way more upside than downside. Ayo could blossom into a lottery pick. Giorgi could round out his game and get stronger on defense. Kofi could be a major contributor from day one. Griffin could get stronger with the ball and be the shooter he is in practice. Kipper could consistently knock down threes and help open up the floor. Any one of those things would transform the team. But in terms of downside, what is there? Losing Aaron Jordan and not being able to replace him? That still gets you to the edge of the bubble conversation. I expect some rough patches but remain hopeful that I'll be pleasantly surprised. [/QUOTE]
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