Epsilon
M tipping over
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We all love to speculate about the tournament. It’s a national pastime. Here is a thread to do that. Here is also an SI article with projections to get us started. Puts us as a 3 seed. Ready set go.
Bracketology (Week of Jan. 25th)
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They did not do any favors for Nova. They could be the first 1 seed out if they catch OU. OU might give them fits in round 2. I like this bracket as an Illini fan to get to the EE If we play like a team that wants it.
Was looking at Illinois resume. Currently #7 in the NET, #7 on Kenpom.
3-4 vs Quad 1
5-1 vs Quad 2
Consensus on bracketmatrix is a 13th (first 4 seed).
The @Duke win is looking pretty weak, which is unfortunate given how most years it would have been a signature road win.
Best wins are all in the conference (NET):
#6 Iowa
#30 Purdue
#35 @PSU
#35 PSU
#38 Minny
#48 Indiana
#77 @NW
Worst loss is #40 Maryland at home, which by itself is not a disaster. More losses than you'd like, but the quality of the losses is high. I don't see much chance at a 2 seed with road games remaining at Michigan, Minn, tOSU, and Wiscy, but a strong finish nabbing maybe 2 of those could get us a 3 seed.
Personally, I'd love to see them contend for the conference title. Lotta tough games remaining, but Michigan also has a brutal stretch to the finish, so I think it's more likely than not, that they can make up that ground with a push. @Michigan looms large....
3-4 vs Quad 1
5-1 vs Quad 2
Consensus on bracketmatrix is a 13th (first 4 seed).
The @Duke win is looking pretty weak, which is unfortunate given how most years it would have been a signature road win.
Best wins are all in the conference (NET):
#6 Iowa
#30 Purdue
#35 @PSU
#35 PSU
#38 Minny
#48 Indiana
#77 @NW
Worst loss is #40 Maryland at home, which by itself is not a disaster. More losses than you'd like, but the quality of the losses is high. I don't see much chance at a 2 seed with road games remaining at Michigan, Minn, tOSU, and Wiscy, but a strong finish nabbing maybe 2 of those could get us a 3 seed.
Personally, I'd love to see them contend for the conference title. Lotta tough games remaining, but Michigan also has a brutal stretch to the finish, so I think it's more likely than not, that they can make up that ground with a push. @Michigan looms large....
I think Illinois is at worst a 3 seed right now, probably a 2 if you look closely at their resume. Their 8 Q1 and Q2 wins are more than any other team in the country (and their Duke win might bump up to Q1 after today's results), they don't have a single bad loss, haven't been blown out, and if you look at their actual computer ratings they're closer to a 2 than a 4. Pay no attention to the polls, they literally mean nothing.
It was from the morning before the Iowa game, but Lunardi had us behind Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State and Wisconsin in his bracket. Has never really appreciated the Illini.
Moved up to #5 in the NET with a 5-4 Quad 1 record. Duke jumped into the Top 75 and Purdue jumped into the Top 25 elevating both wins to Q1.
Only Kansas and Maryland have more Q1 games with 10. Our next 3 games (and 6 of our remaining 8) are all Q1 games.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
Weren't we 1-4 in Quad 1 games before Iowa? Just like that we are now 5-4 in Quad 1 games, 3-1 in Quad 2. Quick glance at the NET and I couldn't find a team with more Quad 1 wins. Also we just jumped Iowa in the NET, 1 spot from a NCAAT 1 seed.
EDIT: Looks like the PSU at home, Purdue, and Duke games jumped into the Q1 category yesterday.
EDIT: Looks like the PSU at home, Purdue, and Duke games jumped into the Q1 category yesterday.
Deleted member 747903
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I think when it’s all said and done the Duke win will be a really good win. Don’t count out a Coach K team and they have tons of talent that is going to burst at some point
other teams have 5 quad 1 wins but we have played 9 quad 1 games which is most in the top 10 by a good amount.
Let's take a look at this objectively, leaving team names out and looking only at resumes, like the selection committee does. There are currently 16 teams getting at least one vote for a top 2 seed on Bracket Matrix, and here are the NET stats for them:
Based on that info, what is your top 10?
For me (and everyone else), the two obvious standouts at the top are B and D, with D getting a slight nod at 1 due to a better road and neutral record (by 1 game). After that, there are many close resumes, but I give team N the edge based on, again, 7 road/neutral wins and just one Q1 loss overall. Team H at #4 due to 7 Q1+2 wins and just one Q1 loss, then Team E with 6 Q1+2 wins and 1 Q2 loss.
After that, though, it's a toss-up between teams A, F, G, K, M, and R. For me, I penalize A for the Q3 loss despite the respectable 6-3 road/neutral record and 9 Q1+Q2 wins, and give F a boost for the tough schedule and 8 Q1+Q2 wins, and M for a 5-0 road/neutral record with all their losses in Q1. So 6-11 for me is M, F, G, K, R, A.
The rest are a step behind the other 11, and I'd rank them P, S, J, L, C
So, 1 to 16 for me is D, B, N, H, E, M, F, G, K, R, A, P, S, J, L, C
The actual teams:
Based on that info, what is your top 10?
For me (and everyone else), the two obvious standouts at the top are B and D, with D getting a slight nod at 1 due to a better road and neutral record (by 1 game). After that, there are many close resumes, but I give team N the edge based on, again, 7 road/neutral wins and just one Q1 loss overall. Team H at #4 due to 7 Q1+2 wins and just one Q1 loss, then Team E with 6 Q1+2 wins and 1 Q2 loss.
After that, though, it's a toss-up between teams A, F, G, K, M, and R. For me, I penalize A for the Q3 loss despite the respectable 6-3 road/neutral record and 9 Q1+Q2 wins, and give F a boost for the tough schedule and 8 Q1+Q2 wins, and M for a 5-0 road/neutral record with all their losses in Q1. So 6-11 for me is M, F, G, K, R, A.
The rest are a step behind the other 11, and I'd rank them P, S, J, L, C
So, 1 to 16 for me is D, B, N, H, E, M, F, G, K, R, A, P, S, J, L, C
The actual teams:
1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. Villanova
4. Michigan
5. Houston
6. Texas
7. Illinois
8. Iowa
9. Ohio State
10. West Virginia
11. Alabama
12. Virginia
13. Wisconsin
14. Missouri
15. Tennessee
16. Florida State
2. Baylor
3. Villanova
4. Michigan
5. Houston
6. Texas
7. Illinois
8. Iowa
9. Ohio State
10. West Virginia
11. Alabama
12. Virginia
13. Wisconsin
14. Missouri
15. Tennessee
16. Florida State
Illinois and Iowa are almost identical!!
Crazy
Crazy
altenberger22
- South Carolina
Hope this one sticks for another month. Love our bracket!
Just 3 Q1 games takes Team N out of 1 seed contention for me.
altenberger22
- South Carolina
I think we move up considerably in the rankings quite a bit this week. Lots of teams around us lost at least once. I think we'll be very close to a universal 3 seed; Top 12 AP, Top 8 Net).
altenberger22
- South Carolina
That's VILL. Same goes for Houston (E)....with SOS of 60.
illiniswish09
- Northwest Suburbs
Get a 3 seed and don’t get placed in Gonzaga or Baylor’s region is the goal
Deleted member 186590
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No doubt we shouldn’t have lost 5 games already- but the schedule has been the toughest of the top teams- hopefully that pays off in the tourny
Deleted member 186590
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No kidding - I like our chances against anybody but those two
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
I'm not sure how we'd handle Gonzaga, but I like my chances against Baylor on a neutral court. Kofi was the X-Factor in that game and was basically neutralized minutes into the game with foul trouble, their new transfer Flagler had his best game of the season even today, and Coleman/Grandison were non-factors at that point in the season. Easily could see us winning say 4 of 10 games against them today.
Deleted member 11228
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Not afraid of either of those teams. Anything can happen in the tournament where we might not face either if we are in their region. Those teams can be beat.
I actually like how we matchup with Gonzaga over Baylor. Kofi can handle Timme in the post and Timme doesn’t stretch the floor(3/10 from 3 on the season). Put Ayo on Kispert. Trent can harass Suggs the whole game. Baylor’s defense and their ability to have bigs to bang with Kofi worries me more than Gonzaga.
Deleted member 747903
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Gonzaga has a ridiculous amount of depth. I don’t think we can hang with them for a full 40. Baylor on the other hand has probably the strongest starting 5 in the country but their bench is suspect to me. Flagler and Meyer are solid but both can be guys that disappear in a tourney game.
Deleted member 747903
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Guest
Gonzaga hasn’t been tested though so let’s see how they respond to getting punched in the mouth in the tourney, which will happen
Illini_1979
- Oregon
I'm usually one of the first to say that Gonzaga is overrated but not this year. I think they are legit. Now watch them get upset early in the tourney. 
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