Ayo Dosunmu to the Chicago Bulls (2nd Round, 38th Pick)

Status
Not open for further replies.
#351      
South Carolina
Some noteworthy names that went undrafted, including a few names that have popped up on this board many times-- Aaron Henry, Duane Washington Jr, Mac Mclung, Joel Ayayi, DJ Steward (why he didn't return to Duke is a headscratcher), Mckinley Wright, DJ Carton, Chaundee Brown, Alan Griffin, Jordan Goodwin
Griffin left Syracuse - really? No wonder he transferred from Champaign. Guess we'll be seeing him in Europe.
 
#352      
San Antonio
1627666356102.png
 
#354      
Forgottonia
Interesting how he went from 6-5 to 6-2. I know teams like to inflate numbers, but is it generally by that much? I assume they greatly exaggerate length too.
 
Last edited:
#355      
Defense is going to have to be Ayo's calling card. And I think it can be, he combines natural length and lateral quickness with the intelligence and game sense to make those play. For a three year college guy you'd have liked to see more proof of that, it really came only in flashes and you'd hope for a player of his profile to have more blocks and steals, but he was always carrying a phenomenal load offensively, which will never be the case for him in the NBA.

If he can be a trustworthy scheme executor with some positional flexibility on D, and a reliable floor-spacer who opponents can't sag off of, he should get enough minutes to work on the half court offense part of his game. He's not a good enough passer or ballhandler right now to be an NBA PG, but neither are a bunch of guys taken ahead of him. It's about growth and development.

I can see it going either way. The tape on Ayo against the kind of length and athleticism he'll see at the NBA level is scary, but everything that's been said about his work ethic and character is true, and he really did develop into a much smarter, more efficient player while at Illinois, he's shown he can take steps down the road he'll have to travel.
 
#356      
Interesting how he went from 6-5 to 6-2. I know teams like to inflate numbers, but is it generally by that much?
At the combine he was 6'5" in shoes with a 6'10.25" wingspan.

Ayo's length and great understanding of how to use it in order to finish has been the building block of everything Ayo's done as a basketball player thus far.

That advantage is now basically gone for him. It's going to be a really big adjustment. But it's his full time job now, and we know Ayo will work his butt off in the gym trying to figure it out.
 
#357      
Interesting how he went from 6-5 to 6-2. I know teams like to inflate numbers, but is it generally by that much? I assume they greatly exaggerate length too.
I think the truth lies somewhere in between. He looks and plays taller than 6'2".
 
#359      
Sweet sounds for many years to come...

(Bulls intro music dramatically playing in the background)

And NOW! For Your ChiCAHWGO BULLS! Chicago’s OWN!... AAAyyyyyoooooo!... DoSUUUUUUUNNNNNMMMUUUUU!

(Insert Sellout Crowd Roars HERE).

How about bringing Rose back? Rose and Ayo together?
 
#360      
The tape on Ayo against the kind of length and athleticism he'll see at the NBA level is scary,

Agree with that completely. However. Defensive physicality is basically penalized until the playoffs in the league. Hand checks and bumps in college are fouls in the nba. College physicality is more like FIBA which we’ve seen team USA struggle to adjust to at times.

The other difference is nba spacing. Nobody wants to let up 3s anymore, and the line is like 2 feet further to recover to, which is all the space a good nba shooter needs to get a clean shot. Nobody helps unless they absolutely have to (unless it’s Giannis) and even then they’ll give up 2 to not give up 3 a lot of the time.

So in combination, my hope for Ayo is that less physical defense and the nba’s propensity to not help will increase his effectiveness as a penetrator and finisher, even against the length and athleticism he will see regularly.
 
#363      
North Bethesda, Maryland
Ayo had a great college career and I don’t think a better performance in March would have helped. He is a solid all around player who does many things really well but he is not elite at any one item. He is what you want on a team.
If he knew he was going 2nd round would he have come back with the NIL rules. Ayo and Kofi would have been the face of college basketball
If I was advising players I would tell them to stay in school 4 years to maximize your NIL don’t risk draft unless you think you are in the top 15. It’s so hard to make a NBA roster. I think a player like Garza would have made a lot last year even at Iowa
This is a take I hadn’t considered, that the NIL may keep players in college longer, even when they feel they could be drafted. Even with the “wild west” feeling about the NIL right now, if this is an outcome, it improves the college game.
 
#364      
At the combine he was 6'5" in shoes with a 6'10.25" wingspan.

Ayo's length and great understanding of how to use it in order to finish has been the building block of everything Ayo's done as a basketball player thus far.

That advantage is now basically gone for him. It's going to be a really big adjustment. But it's his full time job now, and we know Ayo will work his butt off in the gym trying to figure it out.
Good to see you Gritty!
 
#366      
ESPN 2022 Mock

Curbelo #34
Kofi No mention

Interesting. Was hard not to think of Curbelo when reading stories/watching highlights about Auburn PG Sharife Cooper and his NBA draft stock. Hopefully Andre can better address concerns (size, outside shooting, turnovers, defense) that caused Cooper to slip from a projected first rounder by many to #48 despite tremendous PG skills.

Or maybe it was Cooper's tutelage by Pearl that him toxic and caused the slip... :unsure:
 
#367      
Interesting. Was hard not to think of Curbelo when reading stories/watching highlights about Auburn PG Sharife Cooper and his NBA draft stock. Hopefully Andre can better address concerns (size, outside shooting, turnovers, defense) that caused Cooper to slip from a projected first rounder by many to #48 despite tremendous PG skills.

Or maybe it was Cooper's tutelage by Pearl that him toxic and caused the slip... :unsure:
Unless his growth plates are still open, I doubt he can address this one.
 
#368      
Unless his growth plates are still open, I doubt he can address this one.

I suspect Andre has a bit more size/weight than Cooper, but hard to know for certain given the vagaries of college measurements. Regardless, both are undersized for NBA play, so best he can probably do on that front is to continue to build strength and demonstrate durability and the ability to finish plays.
 
#372      
I don't think analytics has anything to do with it. People have always drafted players based on projection and upside. There are tons of examples going back decades of high draft picks based on what teams valued then and what they thought player X might be down the road. Olowokandi and Kwame Brown being two that really stand out from 20+ years ago when big men were still all the rage. Now, wings are what everybody wants, leading to your Josh Primo/Kuminga/Ziare Williams-type picks.
I agree with you- teams have always reached for potential especially in the straight out of HS era there were a lot of busts.
The question was a different one though -it was why did Ayo fall so much- 20 years ago the best college players would usually be picked in the first round- I think Ayo would have been a lottery pick 20 years ago. today, not so much and it’s because of analytics
 
#373      
Plano, TX
I agree it’s hard to understand from a pure basketball standpoint- but it is driven by the fact that analytics has taken over in basketball now like a lot of other sports. Teams are projecting based on athleticism and measurable who will be good in the league- look no further than the Bulls pick of Patrick Williams last year- he wasn’t a big time HS recruit (top 50ish), didn’t start at FSU but was the 4th pick in the draft purely from what the analytics said

I think Ayo will have a good career because he’s a winner and works hard and he’s just good at basketball and will figure out what he can do well- but if you are a scout, nothing jumps off the screen, not a pure point guard with great handles that sets up others, not an explosive leaper nor great 3 point shooter, good defender but not lock down- the “mid range game” just isn’t valued in today’s NBA analytics that says you should be shooting more threes

I think that’s why he fell- doesn’t mean he can’t be great- there just aren’t a lot of guys with his profile that have turned out to be great in today’s NBA- but Ayo has never worried about being one of the first at anything

I think he fell for one reason and I am surprised that this hasn't been talked about much. I love Ayo...and Illinois basketball... but late in the season even the TV announcers figured out what other teams already knew. He can't drive to the basket consistently using his left hand. Force him to go left...and he struggles. Period. IF the NBA coaches and Ayo work hard on fixing that issue then he's a steal in the draft. If he doesn't fix it he becomes a fringe player. He worked hard to improve his three point shooting. If he works just as hard on driving to the basket with his left hand everything will fall into place
 
#374      
I agree with you- teams have always reached for potential especially in the straight out of HS era there were a lot of busts.
The question was a different one though -it was why did Ayo fall so much- 20 years ago the best college players would usually be picked in the first round- I think Ayo would have been a lottery pick 20 years ago. today, not so much and it’s because of analytics
I don’t think it is because of analytics — or at least not entirely. I think it is more about the economics of the game and how teams are now built versus how they were built. Twenty years ago teams were primarily built through draft and trades. Most free agent signings were fairly minor — looks like Bulls big signing was Brad Miller in 2000. So while potential played a part in drafts there was still plenty of emphasis on drafting guys who could potentially play right away because that is how you built a team.

Today free agency is king. But not every team is equal regarding ability to bring in a top free agent or via trade when a superstar forces a trade. Those guys are going to teams that already have a superstar or two. Large part of reason Bulls traded for Vucevic is because they knew they couldn’t get a top player to sign with them, and if they didn’t get talent around Levine, he’d leave. So what does that have to do with the draft? Well if can’t use free agency have to use draft, but building that way takes a few years — at least a couple in the early part of the lottery. So you might not want to draft a guy who will be solid but less chance of being a superstar and prefer to shoot more for the moon cuz giving them time to develop isn’t a negative — just means more top draft positions. And if you can hit on a couple of them, you now have players to build around. I love Ayo, but I don’t think he’s a player you build around. Of course a lot of those picked ahead of him won’t become that either, but if you think upside is great enough and you’re rebuilding you go with one of those other players. As crazy as it seems, making “solid” picks in the range we were hoping Ayo to go isn’t always the best thing to do. Having a team of solid guys is good enough to miss playoffs but pick lower in lottery — almost ensuring mediocrity or a very long rebuild. Tough thing is if your front office keeps missing on identifying potential that will come to fruition, you’ll end up with the same thing.

Bulls are probably pretty happy getting Ayo — better player than where he was picked and a home town guy. Would they have drafted him if the had the 22nd pick? I’m not so sure they would have. Maybe but maybe not.
 
#375      
For those confused by what they saw in the draft, here's my non-expert understanding of the situation ...

There is a large pool of talented, but generally undifferentiated players that teams can dip into to fill out their roster each year. The goal of the draft is to take risks in order to obtain what you cannot otherwise obtain from this pool. Basically, that translates to one of two things:

(1) A player with an all-NBA ceiling ...

NBA teams simply do not win championships without at least one all-nba player. Teams will therefore pass on sure bets to be decent, or even above average, if there's the opportunity to grab a high ceiling guy, even those they know have a high risk of flaming out.

You might think to yourself, "Ayo could be all-nba!" Well, maybe, but you probably shouldn't trust your heart over the opinions of NBA scouts and GMs, even though your heart tells you they're idiots. The evidence ...

53 distinct players have made a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-nba in the past 10 seasons. Here's a breakdown of where they went in the draft ...
  • 25/53 were top 5 picks ... 9x 1st, 4x 2nd, 7x 3rd, 2x 4th, 3x 5th
  • 40/53 were top 15 picks ... continuing the above list, 1x 6th, 2x 7th, 5x 9th, 2x 10th, 1x 11th, 1x 13th, 3x 15th
  • Of the 13 who went later than the 15th pick, 5 were international players.
  • Of the 8 domestic players who went later than the 15th pick, only 3 were taken after the 1st round (DeAndre Jordan C, Draymond Green F, Isaiah Thomas G).

These numbers don't mean that every high pick works out. It just means that the vast majority of guys who really, really work out come from the upper parts of the draft. Many of the exceptions are internationals, and only a trivial number of exceptions are from beyond the first round.

Something else I noticed when reviewing this sample - a healthy proportion were identified as elite talents while still in high school. Using RSCI rankings meant I had to shrink the sample from 53 to 42 - 10 guys attended high school outside of the states, and 1 (Kobe Bryant) pre-dated RSCI, though surely would have been top 3, if not 1. Actually, Tim Duncan failed on both counts - pre-dated RSCI and attended HS outside of the states. In any case ...
  • 18/42 were top 6 RSCI
  • 27/42 were top 21 RSCI
  • Of the other 15/42, 5 were ranked, but lower (29, 48, 58, 72, 95), while 10 were unranked.

I find it interesting that there were twice as many unranked guys, as guys ranked below 21. Of the 10 guys that were unranked, here's where they were drafted: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 27, 30, 60. Personally, I interpret that to mean that some guys just don't get sufficiently scouted before college, though I guess at least some could have developed while in college.

For context, Ayo's RSCI was 32.

If you're an NBA GM looking at the above numbers and your goal is to take a big swing, you might just reach for a guy who has always had the gifts, even if he hasn't yet performed to his full potential.

(2) A player who possesses a rare, but critical ingredient in today's game, even at the expense of being a well-rounded player ...

This one is more fluid as trends come and go, but presently, this might mean ...
  • 3-point specialists who are long enough to not be complete defensive liabilities,
  • long wings with elite athleticism who they hope to teach to be impact defenders,
  • quick-twitch bigs who can switch pick-and-rolls and rim run,
  • etc.

Ayo doesn't fit either profile. That doesn't mean he won't succeed in the NBA, but it does mean he's viewed as an easier to find commodity.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.