B1G Bracketology

#1      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
The final bracket:
Cc6Zjn_W0AEG-YU.jpg





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There's still a (slim) chance that Illinois gets a #10 seed and avoids a Wednesday game in the B1G Tournament.

Remaining Games
IL: @MAR @PSU
NU: @PSU NEB
NEB: PUR @NU
PSU: NU IL



Here's an Illinois #10 seed senario:
* Illinois wins out
* Northwestern goes 0-2
* PSU goes 1-1
* Nebraska beats Northwestern (PU game doesn't matter)

#9 NEB 8-10 or 7-11 (PU game can go either way)
#10 IL 7-11
#11 PSU 7-11
#12 NU 6-12

Illinois would beat (1-0) PSU in a head-to-head tie. In a 3-way tie it would be NEB (2-1) IL (1-1) PSU (1-2).



Feb 29th B1G Standings-
b1g-standings-2016-01.png


b1g-tournament-bracket-2016.png
 
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#2      

TheBucket

T
TheBucket
Dan said:
There's still a (slim) chance that Illinois gets a #10 seed and avoids a Wednesday game in the B1G Tournament.
Click to expand...

A 11 seed and a 1st round game vs Rutgers is just about as good as a 10 seed.

Running into a not-so-fun Thursday game either way vs a team like Purdue, Ohio St, or Wisconsin.

Crazier things have happened... Just need to win 5 straight games in 5 straight days!
 
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#5      

TCTORNADO

TCTORNADO
TCTORNADO
Kruger's 98-99 team was dead last in the B1G w/3-13 record and they made it to the finals of the BTT that year.
*I know that people will bring up that we were not last because of tOSU forfeits but in reality we were dead last in regulars season.
 
#6      

ChicagoChief

C
ChicagoChief
TCTORNADO said:
Kruger's 98-99 team was dead last in the B1G w/3-13 record and they made it to the finals of the BTT that year.
*I know that people will bring up that we were not last because of tOSU forfeits but in reality we were dead last in regulars season.
Click to expand...


One extra game this year too though. 4 in 4 days is rarely done, I'd be interested to know if 5 in 5 days ever has.
 
#7      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
Jreed322 said:
Anyone know off hand what needs to happen for us to get the 11?
Click to expand...
Here's one scenario-

Illinois loses at Maryland
Illinois wins at Penn State
Northwestern wins at Penn State
 
#8      

UIUC1867

UIUC1867
Christian County, IL
UIUC1867
ChicagoChief said:
One extra game this year too though. 4 in 4 days is rarely done, I'd be interested to know if 5 in 5 days ever has.
Click to expand...

2011 UConn did that in the Big East tourney and went on to win the national championship.
 
#10      

urbanite

U
urbanite
Jreed322 said:
Anyone know off hand what needs to happen for us to get the 11?
Click to expand...
Using this, it seems required that Penn St. would have to lose their remaining games. Then, if we beat Maryland, Nebraska would need to beat Northwestern (otherwise we get the 10 seed).
 
#12      

TheBucket

T
TheBucket
Bomb Squad 217 said:
So what are we thinking? Do we want the 10 or 11? Extra game potentially for experience and practice, if you will.
Click to expand...

I think the 10 seed is highly improbably. 11 or 12 is fine by me. You'd run into Minnesota or Rutgers - both of which should be wins.
 
#13      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
I'll post up the seed probability chart later today - right now Illinois has a 1.85% chance at the 10 seed. 16% chance at the 11, remaining chance is the 12.
 
#14      

blmillini

B
Bloomington, IL
blmillini
I would prefer we end up in the lower 4 seeds so we have a chance of winning a game.
 
#15      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
Illinois wins out = 10 or 11 or 12 seed
Illinois loses to Maryland & beats Penn State = 11 or 12 seed
Illinois loses to Penn State = 12 seed


Illini B1G Tourney Seeds*
b1g-tournament-seedings-omg.png


* it's entirely possible that this chart is not 100% correct
 
#16      

UrbanaIsTheShiz

U
UrbanaIsTheShiz
TheBucket said:
A 11 seed and a 1st round game vs Rutgers is just about as good as a 10 seed.

Running into a not-so-fun Thursday game either way vs a team like Purdue, Ohio St, or Wisconsin.

Crazier things have happened... Just need to win 5 straight games in 5 straight days!
Click to expand...

I will take OSU all day. they are terrible and we could actually be them
 
#18      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Has there ever been a 5 way share for conference champion? It's a very real possibility this year.

Also it feels so good to finally be out of that 8-9 game. Seems like we've been playing at 11 am on Thursday for the past 10 years.
 
#19      

TCTORNADO

TCTORNADO
TCTORNADO
jrichisamazing said:
Has there ever been a 5 way share for conference champion? It's a very real possibility this year.

Also it feels so good to finally be out of that 8-9 game. Seems like we've been playing at 11 am on Thursday for the past 10 years.
Click to expand...

Nope on 5 way; 4 way yes--2001-2002-Illinois, IU, Wisconsin and tOSU.
 
#20      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Ok, here's the whole shebang as of today! Obviously tiebreakers have a clear effect at this point.

Ccb7DUNUUAEL_aA.jpg


Ccb7DUKUMAAhDc9.jpg
 
#21      

FeelYourPaign

FeelYourPaign
So Cal
FeelYourPaign
Interesting that no one from #9 down can move up.
No one from #8 up can go further down.
Bright line of demarcation there.
 
#22      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
FeelYourPaign said:
Interesting that no one from #9 down can move up.
No one from #8 up can go further down.
Bright line of demarcation there.
Click to expand...

Yep! Makes sense when you look at the records, there's really no "average" team this year in the sense of winning half their games. I tried to pull down the info between every game on Sunday hoping I might catch the game that officially split things up that way--seems like it probably happened over the weekend.

I also like that the 0% chance for a Minny-Rutgers flip-flop is still technically alive. It's actually about 0.05%, or 1 in 2000.
 
#23      

aluma

A
aluma
How many Big Ten schools make the NCAA tourney this year? I'm guessing 6 or 7
Locks would be: Indiana, MSU, Maryland, Purdue, Iowa
Bubble: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State
 
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#24      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
aluma said:
How many Big Ten schools make the NCAA tourney this year? I'm guessing 6 or 7
Locks would be: Indiana, MSU, Maryland, Purdue, Iowa
Bubble: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State
Click to expand...

Wisconsin is not on the bubble, they are in.

Michigan is fading, but still has a chance. Ohio St is going to be a very interesting case for the committee. Their RPI would be among the highest ever if they get an ALB. But they have 2 really good wins and their bad losses aren't all that bad. They still have work to do, IMO.
 
#25      

aluma

A
aluma
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Wisconsin is not on the bubble, they are in.

Michigan is fading, but still has a chance. Ohio St is going to be a very interesting case for the committee. Their RPI would be among the highest ever if they get an ALB. But they have 2 really good wins and their bad losses aren't all that bad. They still have work to do, IMO.
Click to expand...

I was thinking similarly with Wisconsin, my thinking was that if they lose their last two then I can't see them getting in with 19 wins. However, their RPI is fantastic and they have a ton of top 50 wins.