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<blockquote data-quote="danielb927" data-source="post: 1179049" data-attributes="member: 3372"><p>Okay, here goes nothing. First, let me start with the state of the Big Ten on January 8th, the day before this weekend's games (by the way, Dan, is there a way to make these attachments a tasteful but readable size within the body of the post?)</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH]2590[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Iowa sat on top of the predictions by virtue of their 3-0 record with wins already over MSU and @Purdue. MSU and Purdue were at 2-1 but Pomeroy ranks them as better teams than Iowa, so their odds were pretty similar. Maryland and IU were in there as well with unbeaten records.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH]2592[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Just to refresh memories, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head within a tied group, and after that it goes to record against other conference teams starting at the top of the standings and working down. If that fails, it goes to nonconference winning percentage, and if <em>that</em> fails, it goes to a coin toss. I keep loose track of this and right now it appears there's something like a 1-2% chance it goes to NC-win%, and a few-in-a-million chance of a coin toss. Wouldn't it be fun if a coin toss determined a bye or something like that?</p><p></p><p>Any rate, last Friday tiebreakers were giving Iowa about a 3% boost, which is a decent amount but not as huge as it could have been if they didn't have to play both MSU and Purdue twice this year. Purdue's the team they'd really have the edge on, given that their road win was a huge upset. Keep that in mind...</p><p></p><p>There's some other cool stuff going on - for instance, PSU's seeing the biggest benefit from the tiebreaker, and in a way that's important (first round bye vs. a bottom 4 seed). Why's that? Other suggestions are welcome, but I think it's because three of their four <em>single-play home games</em> are Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota - all teams they'd be likely to tie. In particular, situations where PSU ties Illinois or Wisconsin are probably likely to include a PSU home win over those teams, and a corresponding tiebreaker boost.</p><p></p><p>Also worth noting is the Minnesota-Rutgers race for the bottom and the tiebreaker influence there.</p><p></p><p>Okay, so that was so three days ago. What's the situation now?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="danielb927, post: 1179049, member: 3372"] Okay, here goes nothing. First, let me start with the state of the Big Ten on January 8th, the day before this weekend's games (by the way, Dan, is there a way to make these attachments a tasteful but readable size within the body of the post?) [ATTACH]2590.vB[/ATTACH] Iowa sat on top of the predictions by virtue of their 3-0 record with wins already over MSU and @Purdue. MSU and Purdue were at 2-1 but Pomeroy ranks them as better teams than Iowa, so their odds were pretty similar. Maryland and IU were in there as well with unbeaten records. [ATTACH]2592.vB[/ATTACH] Just to refresh memories, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head within a tied group, and after that it goes to record against other conference teams starting at the top of the standings and working down. If that fails, it goes to nonconference winning percentage, and if [I]that[/I] fails, it goes to a coin toss. I keep loose track of this and right now it appears there's something like a 1-2% chance it goes to NC-win%, and a few-in-a-million chance of a coin toss. Wouldn't it be fun if a coin toss determined a bye or something like that? Any rate, last Friday tiebreakers were giving Iowa about a 3% boost, which is a decent amount but not as huge as it could have been if they didn't have to play both MSU and Purdue twice this year. Purdue's the team they'd really have the edge on, given that their road win was a huge upset. Keep that in mind... There's some other cool stuff going on - for instance, PSU's seeing the biggest benefit from the tiebreaker, and in a way that's important (first round bye vs. a bottom 4 seed). Why's that? Other suggestions are welcome, but I think it's because three of their four [I]single-play home games[/I] are Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota - all teams they'd be likely to tie. In particular, situations where PSU ties Illinois or Wisconsin are probably likely to include a PSU home win over those teams, and a corresponding tiebreaker boost. Also worth noting is the Minnesota-Rutgers race for the bottom and the tiebreaker influence there. Okay, so that was so three days ago. What's the situation now? [/QUOTE]
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