Home
Forums
New Posts
Illini Basketball
Illini Football
Sports Talk
Log in
Register
What's new
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Forums
Sports
Illini Basketball
BIG Predictions
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="danielb927" data-source="post: 1179054" data-attributes="member: 3372"><p>First, a note about the numbers. Over the weekend, Illinois pulled a big upset over Purdue, and for the most part nothing super exciting happened otherwise. Maryland and Northwestern both won as only slight favorites on the road, so the particular set of six outcomes that happened had about a 1.5% chance of happening. That means that of the 1,000,000 simulations used to produce the previous charts, about 15,000 of them were "right", and the other 985,000 were "wrong". That's as a result of six games, and there are 99 left in the season, so you can see why at this point a million simulations barely scratches the surface of total possible outcomes. In fact, I probably haven't simulated an "all favorites" case once so far.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH]2593[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Right off the bat, it's clear that Michigan St. "gained" the bulk of the championship probability that Purdue gave up in dropping down to 5%. Maryland and IU also picked up some chance. Weirdly, Iowa dropped a couple points. Their drop could be explained as simply as the fact that they had a bye, I'm not sure if it's more complicated than that.</p><p></p><p>Illinois gave itself a nice boost, a full seed spot up from Friday (now projected at 9 or 10, previously 10/11). </p><p></p><p>My first thought was that this might be a bug - MSU and Iowa are both projected to go 14-4 on KenPom, how is MSU 50% more likely to win? Is it all tiebreakers?</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH]2594[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>I really wanted it to be tiebreakers. Iowa and MSU are pretty likely to split their games. The next tiebreaker would be record over probably IU and/or Maryland. MSU plays those teams both once, at home, while Iowa plays Maryland once on the road and IU twice. MSU's gotta be a strong favorite to win that tiebreaker, and I think that's showing up to some degree in the red numbers for IU and Maryland getting the 1 seed. But it's certainly not giving MSU 14 percentage points over Iowa, and I'm not entirely sure what is - so much so that I'm a little worried the code might have a bug.</p><p></p><p>Other interesting notes: Minnesota has the biggest number of the year in the tiebreaker chart, a 5.5% boost to their chance at the 13 seed. That means that with tiebreakers, Minnesota is favored over the field for the 13 seed, but without them, the field is a slight favorite. Vegas lovers take note.</p><p></p><p>One final note of clarification - the tiebreaker effect charts are showing the difference in percent chance between a case with normal tiebreakers and a case where every tiebreaker is just a coin toss.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="danielb927, post: 1179054, member: 3372"] First, a note about the numbers. Over the weekend, Illinois pulled a big upset over Purdue, and for the most part nothing super exciting happened otherwise. Maryland and Northwestern both won as only slight favorites on the road, so the particular set of six outcomes that happened had about a 1.5% chance of happening. That means that of the 1,000,000 simulations used to produce the previous charts, about 15,000 of them were "right", and the other 985,000 were "wrong". That's as a result of six games, and there are 99 left in the season, so you can see why at this point a million simulations barely scratches the surface of total possible outcomes. In fact, I probably haven't simulated an "all favorites" case once so far. [ATTACH]2593.vB[/ATTACH] Right off the bat, it's clear that Michigan St. "gained" the bulk of the championship probability that Purdue gave up in dropping down to 5%. Maryland and IU also picked up some chance. Weirdly, Iowa dropped a couple points. Their drop could be explained as simply as the fact that they had a bye, I'm not sure if it's more complicated than that. Illinois gave itself a nice boost, a full seed spot up from Friday (now projected at 9 or 10, previously 10/11). My first thought was that this might be a bug - MSU and Iowa are both projected to go 14-4 on KenPom, how is MSU 50% more likely to win? Is it all tiebreakers? [ATTACH]2594.vB[/ATTACH] I really wanted it to be tiebreakers. Iowa and MSU are pretty likely to split their games. The next tiebreaker would be record over probably IU and/or Maryland. MSU plays those teams both once, at home, while Iowa plays Maryland once on the road and IU twice. MSU's gotta be a strong favorite to win that tiebreaker, and I think that's showing up to some degree in the red numbers for IU and Maryland getting the 1 seed. But it's certainly not giving MSU 14 percentage points over Iowa, and I'm not entirely sure what is - so much so that I'm a little worried the code might have a bug. Other interesting notes: Minnesota has the biggest number of the year in the tiebreaker chart, a 5.5% boost to their chance at the 13 seed. That means that with tiebreakers, Minnesota is favored over the field for the 13 seed, but without them, the field is a slight favorite. Vegas lovers take note. One final note of clarification - the tiebreaker effect charts are showing the difference in percent chance between a case with normal tiebreakers and a case where every tiebreaker is just a coin toss. [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Sports
Illini Basketball
BIG Predictions
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…