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<blockquote data-quote="Goode-for-3" data-source="post: 1565570" data-attributes="member: 747212"><p>I quickly created a spreadsheet in excel which simulates 10,000 164 shot seasons for a 60% shooter.</p><p></p><p>(Feel free to check my work or recreate / add to it if you want)</p><p>* Across the Top Row I assigned a season number from 1 to 10,000</p><p>* The next 164 rows have the equation =ROUND(1.2*RAND(),0). If I'm not mistaken this should report a 1 for a shot made and a 0 for a shot missed for a 60% shooter.</p><p>* The next 133 rows have the equation =IF(SUM("Row2 Thru 165 of current column")>27,1,0). If I'm not mistaken this should report a 1 for any consecutive 32 shots where 28 or more were made.</p><p>* The next Row sums "Row 2 thru 165 of the current column" to determine the number of made shots that season</p><p>* The next Row takes the number of made shots divided by 164 shots to determine the % of made shots that season</p><p>* The final Row sums the 133 rows that determine if 28+ shots were made in each possible 32 consecutive shot period to determine how many times that particular season the player hit 28+ of 32.</p><p>* At the very end I report the min/max values for Shots made per season, % made per season, and # of times 28+ of 32 shots were made in each season. I also summed the total number of seasons with at least 1 time 28+shots were made in 32 consecutive shots.</p><p></p><p><strong>The Results:</strong></p><p>Shots Made Per Season: Min 72 / Max 118 / Average 95.66</p><p>% Shots Made Per Season: Min 44% / Max 72% / Average 58%</p><p>Number of times per season 28+ out of 32 shots were made: Min 0 / Max 7</p><p>Number of season with at least one 28+ out of 32 shot period: 25</p><p></p><p>So it happens in 0.25% of seasons based on my 10,000 simulated seasons.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Goode-for-3, post: 1565570, member: 747212"] I quickly created a spreadsheet in excel which simulates 10,000 164 shot seasons for a 60% shooter. (Feel free to check my work or recreate / add to it if you want) * Across the Top Row I assigned a season number from 1 to 10,000 * The next 164 rows have the equation =ROUND(1.2*RAND(),0). If I'm not mistaken this should report a 1 for a shot made and a 0 for a shot missed for a 60% shooter. * The next 133 rows have the equation =IF(SUM("Row2 Thru 165 of current column")>27,1,0). If I'm not mistaken this should report a 1 for any consecutive 32 shots where 28 or more were made. * The next Row sums "Row 2 thru 165 of the current column" to determine the number of made shots that season * The next Row takes the number of made shots divided by 164 shots to determine the % of made shots that season * The final Row sums the 133 rows that determine if 28+ shots were made in each possible 32 consecutive shot period to determine how many times that particular season the player hit 28+ of 32. * At the very end I report the min/max values for Shots made per season, % made per season, and # of times 28+ of 32 shots were made in each season. I also summed the total number of seasons with at least 1 time 28+shots were made in 32 consecutive shots. [B]The Results:[/B] Shots Made Per Season: Min 72 / Max 118 / Average 95.66 % Shots Made Per Season: Min 44% / Max 72% / Average 58% Number of times per season 28+ out of 32 shots were made: Min 0 / Max 7 Number of season with at least one 28+ out of 32 shot period: 25 So it happens in 0.25% of seasons based on my 10,000 simulated seasons. [/QUOTE]
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