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<blockquote data-quote="Goode-for-3" data-source="post: 1565646" data-attributes="member: 747212"><p>Thanks I was curious why my overall shooting average was coming out to 58% even when I increased the number of seasons (columns) from 1,000 to 10,000 and I figured it had to do with my equation being wrong. I just updated my file per your suggested equation =IF(RAND()<0.6,1,0) and</p><p></p><p><strong>The <em>corrected </em>results are:</strong></p><p></p><p>Shots Made Per Season: Min 74 / Max 123 / Average 98.40</p><p>% Shots Made Per Season: Min 45% / Max 75% / Average 60%</p><p>Number of times per season 28+ out of 32 shots were made: Min 0 / Max 16 (total times occurring over the 10,000 seasons = 195)</p><p>Number of season with at least one 28+ out of 32 shot period: 52</p><p></p><p>So it happens in 0.52% of seasons based on my 10,000 simulated seasons. Note that there's a lot of variation in the results when I force Excel to re-compute the RAND() function which to me indicates that 10,000 simulated seasons is not enough to narrow in on the real solution. Unfortunately excel only allow 16,000 columns and my computer doesn't like when I tried to create 10 different 10,000 column pages and then find the cumulative values of all those pages. I could probably write down the results for 10,000 and then force excel to update and write those down 10x and then manually compute the combined averages to figure out what it looks like over 100,000 seasons - but I'm not convinced even that would really be enough to get rid of the noise. I guess that's where the value in actually knowing how to do the math comes in!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Goode-for-3, post: 1565646, member: 747212"] Thanks I was curious why my overall shooting average was coming out to 58% even when I increased the number of seasons (columns) from 1,000 to 10,000 and I figured it had to do with my equation being wrong. I just updated my file per your suggested equation =IF(RAND()<0.6,1,0) and [B]The [I]corrected [/I]results are:[/B] Shots Made Per Season: Min 74 / Max 123 / Average 98.40 % Shots Made Per Season: Min 45% / Max 75% / Average 60% Number of times per season 28+ out of 32 shots were made: Min 0 / Max 16 (total times occurring over the 10,000 seasons = 195) Number of season with at least one 28+ out of 32 shot period: 52 So it happens in 0.52% of seasons based on my 10,000 simulated seasons. Note that there's a lot of variation in the results when I force Excel to re-compute the RAND() function which to me indicates that 10,000 simulated seasons is not enough to narrow in on the real solution. Unfortunately excel only allow 16,000 columns and my computer doesn't like when I tried to create 10 different 10,000 column pages and then find the cumulative values of all those pages. I could probably write down the results for 10,000 and then force excel to update and write those down 10x and then manually compute the combined averages to figure out what it looks like over 100,000 seasons - but I'm not convinced even that would really be enough to get rid of the noise. I guess that's where the value in actually knowing how to do the math comes in! [/QUOTE]
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