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<blockquote data-quote="danielb927" data-source="post: 1565686" data-attributes="member: 3372"><p>Very cool! Interesting that just a 2% change in FT shooting makes that outcome almost 2x more likely. </p><p></p><p>The variability at 10k simulations is also a really good thing to note. Given that you're only hitting this outcome about 50 times, it's not too surprising that it's still noisy. And in modeling, knowing how certain you are of your result is just as important the result itself -- sometimes even more, if your uncertainty is very large!</p><p></p><p>If you're able to provide a handful of results from 10k trials each, we can still use some pretty simple statistics to come up with our confidence on the average value.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="danielb927, post: 1565686, member: 3372"] Very cool! Interesting that just a 2% change in FT shooting makes that outcome almost 2x more likely. The variability at 10k simulations is also a really good thing to note. Given that you're only hitting this outcome about 50 times, it's not too surprising that it's still noisy. And in modeling, knowing how certain you are of your result is just as important the result itself -- sometimes even more, if your uncertainty is very large! If you're able to provide a handful of results from 10k trials each, we can still use some pretty simple statistics to come up with our confidence on the average value. [/QUOTE]
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