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<blockquote data-quote="danielb927" data-source="post: 1258965" data-attributes="member: 3372"><p>Updated stuff going into this weekend's games. The first chart is the full effect based on the results so far and most recent KenPom rankings. Since the tiebreaker effect is still pretty small, the second chart shows the difference between simulations <em>with</em> and <em>without</em> updating the strengths of the teams based on their first results. </p><p></p><p>Example of how to read this: Purdue jumped from a 41% to 46% chance to win the top seed. The second chart tells us that one fifth of that jump (1%) is due to Pomeroy thinking they're a better team now, while the other part (4%) is because they already have a conference win under their belt (in addition to the other 5 results from Tuesday and Wednesday).</p><p></p><p>Other noteworthy bits</p><p>- IU's chance at a top 4 seed dropped from 75% to 47%. About <em>half</em> of that drop was due to their ranking change, the other half due to the game result itself (plus other wins by top teams).</p><p></p><p>- Illinois bottom 4 chance jumped from 31% to 48%, with over half of that change being due to our raking drop after the blowout loss.</p><p></p><p>- Iowa had a similar increase in bottom 4 chance (37% to 48%), but only a quarter of that was due to the game result itself. Getting blown out by 24 may tell you to update your outlook by 3x or 4x more than just losing to a top team.</p><p></p><p>This does strike me as interesting because we talk a lot about how much one loss really means. Obviously any one particular loss isn't devastating, as the Big Ten champion usually finishes the season with at least 3. This quick analysis seems to bear that out, indicating that the most important thing about a loss or win could be what it tells you about the strength of a team, not what it does to the team's conference record.</p><p></p><p><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C09FogYUkAAIKRd.jpg:small" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C09GsJDUQAAnlmI.jpg:small" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="danielb927, post: 1258965, member: 3372"] Updated stuff going into this weekend's games. The first chart is the full effect based on the results so far and most recent KenPom rankings. Since the tiebreaker effect is still pretty small, the second chart shows the difference between simulations [I]with[/I] and [I]without[/I] updating the strengths of the teams based on their first results. Example of how to read this: Purdue jumped from a 41% to 46% chance to win the top seed. The second chart tells us that one fifth of that jump (1%) is due to Pomeroy thinking they're a better team now, while the other part (4%) is because they already have a conference win under their belt (in addition to the other 5 results from Tuesday and Wednesday). Other noteworthy bits - IU's chance at a top 4 seed dropped from 75% to 47%. About [I]half[/I] of that drop was due to their ranking change, the other half due to the game result itself (plus other wins by top teams). - Illinois bottom 4 chance jumped from 31% to 48%, with over half of that change being due to our raking drop after the blowout loss. - Iowa had a similar increase in bottom 4 chance (37% to 48%), but only a quarter of that was due to the game result itself. Getting blown out by 24 may tell you to update your outlook by 3x or 4x more than just losing to a top team. This does strike me as interesting because we talk a lot about how much one loss really means. Obviously any one particular loss isn't devastating, as the Big Ten champion usually finishes the season with at least 3. This quick analysis seems to bear that out, indicating that the most important thing about a loss or win could be what it tells you about the strength of a team, not what it does to the team's conference record. [IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C09FogYUkAAIKRd.jpg:small[/IMG] [IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C09GsJDUQAAnlmI.jpg:small[/IMG] [/QUOTE]
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