Big Ten Tournament Discussion

I know it's a ways off, but considering the BTT is returning to Chicago this year and the standings are such a fun mess, I thought this could maybe use its own thread? I know I am going to try to go to some games at the UC and paint it orange this March. Here's a reminder of the Big Ten Tournament schedule in case anyone is trying to tentatively plan for when the Illini might play. Also, for some of these the next game starts 25 minutes after the first game ends ... so I just assumed a college game takes two hours for simplicity's sake:

FIRST ROUND: Wednesday 3/8
5:30 pm - #13 seed vs. #12 seed
8:00 pm - #14 seed vs. #11 seed

SECOND ROUND: Thursday 3/9
11:00 am - #9 seed vs. #8 seed
1:30 pm - #12/13 seed vs. #5 seed
5:30 pm - #10 seed vs. #7 seed
8:00 pm - #11/14 seed vs. #6 seed

QUARTERFINALS: Friday 3/10
11:00 am - #8/9 seed vs. #1 seed
1:30 pm - #5/12/13 seed vs. #4 seed
5:30 pm - #7/10 seed vs. #2 seed
8:00 pm - #6/11/14 vs. #3 seed

SEMIFINALS: Saturday 3/11
12:00 pm - Winner of #1/4/5/8/9/12/13 path
2:30 pm - Winner of #2/3/6/7/10/11/14 path

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Sunday 3/12
2:30 pm

To simplify, these would be the Illini game times with various seeds:

#1 seed: 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#2 seed: 5:30 pm on Friday, 2:30 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#3 seed: 8:00 pm on Friday, 2:30 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#4 seed: 1:30 pm on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#5 seed: 1:30 pm on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#6 seed: 8:00 pm on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 2:30 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday

I want another Big Ten title for sure, but MAN for my social life/viewing experience pleasure, that #2 seed path is great!

And one more thing, some Illini history in the Big Ten Tournament:

Championships: 3 (2003, 2005, 2021)
Runners-Up: 4 (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008)
All-Time Record: 31-21 (.596) - third best after MSU and OSU
Record in Chicago: 17-8 (.680)
Record in Indianapolis: 14-11 (.560)
Record at Other Sites: 0-2 (.000)

Let's keep the good history going at the UC this year - our Home Away From Home! Hope to see a swarm of fellow Illini fans there!

I know it's only been four years but it feels like a lifetime since this has been at the UC. And given where the program was in 2019 versus where we are now, in a sense it has been.

turnaround3 said:

I know it's only been four years but it feels like a lifetime since this has been at the UC. And given where the program was in 2019 versus where we are now, in a sense it has been.

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Yep. I lived in Iowa City at that time but I had JUST gotten accepted to an MBA program in Chicago, so my (now wife) girlfriend and I drove up that night to spend a long weekend in Chicago for St. Paddy's Day, kicked off by Iowa vs. Illinois at the United Center ... holy crap was that a humiliating defeat. I remember texting my Iowa friends that we had young talent, and in two years they would wish they were in our position ... they all laughed. Exactly two years later, we beat them in the BTT Semifinal on our way to a #1 seed.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

I know it's a ways off, but considering the BTT is returning to Chicago this year and the standings are such a fun mess, I thought this could maybe use its own thread? I know I am going to try to go to some games at the UC and paint it orange this March. Here's a reminder of the Big Ten Tournament schedule in case anyone is trying to tentatively plan for when the Illini might play. Also, for some of these the next game starts 25 minutes after the first game ends ... so I just assumed a college game takes two hours for simplicity's sake:

FIRST ROUND: Wednesday 3/8
5:30 pm - #13 seed vs. #12 seed
8:00 pm - #14 seed vs. #11 seed

SECOND ROUND: Thursday 3/9
11:00 am - #9 seed vs. #8 seed
1:30 pm - #12/13 seed vs. #5 seed
5:30 pm - #10 seed vs. #7 seed
8:00 pm - #11/14 seed vs. #6 seed

QUARTERFINALS: Friday 3/10
11:00 am - #8/9 seed vs. #1 seed
1:30 pm - #5/12/13 seed vs. #4 seed
5:30 pm - #7/10 seed vs. #2 seed
8:00 pm - #6/11/14 vs. #3 seed

SEMIFINALS: Saturday 3/11
12:00 pm - Winner of #1/4/5/8/9/12/13 path
2:30 pm - Winner of #2/3/6/7/10/11/14 path

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Sunday 3/12
2:30 pm

To simplify, these would be the Illini game times with various seeds:

#1 seed: 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#2 seed: 5:30 pm on Friday, 2:30 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#3 seed: 8:00 pm on Friday, 2:30 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#4 seed: 1:30 pm on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#5 seed: 1:30 pm on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday
#6 seed: 8:00 pm on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 2:30 pm on Saturday and 2:30 pm on Sunday

I want another Big Ten title for sure, but MAN for my social life/viewing experience pleasure, that #2 seed path is great!

And one more thing, some Illini history in the Big Ten Tournament:

Championships: 3 (2003, 2005, 2021)
Runners-Up: 4 (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008)
All-Time Record: 31-21 (.596) - third best after MSU and OSU
Record in Chicago: 17-8 (.680)
Record in Indianapolis: 14-11 (.560)
Record at Other Sites: 0-2 (.000)

Let's keep the good history going at the UC this year - our Home Away From Home! Hope to see a swarm of fellow Illini fans there!

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based on recent history looks like we should get another championship (odd years)

(I know it's ridiculously early!!)

I didn't bother with my own predictions and just left everything non-Illini the same, and here are the seed outcomes for the Illini with different results down the stretch, using this simulator:

Finish 4-3 (losses at PSU, at IND, at PUR)
6-seed vs. #11 Penn State or #14 Minnesota; would play #3 Maryland if we win

Finish 4-3 (losses at IND, at OSU, at PUR)
6-seed vs. #11 Penn State or #14 Minnesota; would play #3 Maryland if we win

Finish 5-2 (losses at IND, at PUR)
5-seed vs. #12 Nebraska; would play #4 Indiana if we win

Finish 6-1 (loss at PUR)
2-seed vs. #7 Michigan State or #10 Wisconsin; would likely play #3 Rutgers or #6 Iowa if we win

Needless to say, tonight is huge to kind of maintain a high ceiling for this squad as far as BTT seeding but also NCAA Tournament seeding (this is a Quad 1 game for now, after all). If we win tonight, then we are playing with house money and for revenge on Saturday in Bloomington ... then if we win that one, we can start dreaming!

It is startling to consider that a 5-2 record from here on out might not get us a double bye for the tournament.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

(I know it's ridiculously early!!)

I didn't bother with my own predictions and just left everything non-Illini the same, and here are the seed outcomes for the Illini with different results down the stretch, using this simulator:

Finish 4-3 (losses at PSU, at IND, at PUR)
6-seed vs. #11 Penn State or #14 Minnesota; would play #3 Maryland if we win

Finish 4-3 (losses at IND, at OSU, at PUR)
6-seed vs. #11 Penn State or #14 Minnesota; would play #3 Maryland if we win

Finish 5-2 (losses at IND, at PUR)
5-seed vs. #12 Nebraska; would play #4 Indiana if we win

Finish 6-1 (loss at PUR)
2-seed vs. #7 Michigan State or #10 Wisconsin; would likely play #3 Rutgers or #6 Iowa if we win

Needless to say, tonight is huge to kind of maintain a high ceiling for this squad as far as BTT seeding but also NCAA Tournament seeding (this is a Quad 1 game for now, after all). If we win tonight, then we are playing with house money and for revenge on Saturday in Bloomington ... then if we win that one, we can start dreaming!

Click to expand...

Tougher than I thought to get to a top 4 seed
Yeah I understand all teams have to still play the games but….

In my projected B1G finish, losing at Indiana and Purdue ends up getting us at the 3 seed. Hopefully if we take care of business as we should we will get that double bye. If we drop a game we shouldn't drop, or if we go 5-2 and get the 5th seed, that would be pretty brutal but also very much a Total Illini Move.

I guess let's just take matters into our own hands and win out!

Does anyone know when the ticket office will be distributing the BIG tickets through ticketmaster?

Fighter of the Nightman said:

(I know it's ridiculously early!!)

I didn't bother with my own predictions and just left everything non-Illini the same, and here are the seed outcomes for the Illini with different results down the stretch, using this simulator:

Finish 4-3 (losses at PSU, at IND, at PUR)
6-seed vs. #11 Penn State or #14 Minnesota; would play #3 Maryland if we win

Finish 4-3 (losses at IND, at OSU, at PUR)
6-seed vs. #11 Penn State or #14 Minnesota; would play #3 Maryland if we win

Finish 5-2 (losses at IND, at PUR)
5-seed vs. #12 Nebraska; would play #4 Indiana if we win

Finish 6-1 (loss at PUR)
2-seed vs. #7 Michigan State or #10 Wisconsin; would likely play #3 Rutgers or #6 Iowa if we win

Needless to say, tonight is huge to kind of maintain a high ceiling for this squad as far as BTT seeding but also NCAA Tournament seeding (this is a Quad 1 game for now, after all). If we win tonight, then we are playing with house money and for revenge on Saturday in Bloomington ... then if we win that one, we can start dreaming!

Click to expand...

Hoping for a different defensive strategy this time around. Last one wasn’t real successful.

I did a simulation of the rest of the Big Ten season by picking the favored team for every game:

Illinois would go 4-1 in this scenario and get the 7th seed.


I then simulated it again except I picked Illinois over Purdue:

This would give us the 2nd seed. So we basically need to win out to even have a chance at getting a double bye.

AyoDos11 said:

I did a simulation of the rest of the Big Ten season by picking the favored team for every game:
View attachment 23565
Illinois would go 4-1 in this scenario and get the 7th seed.
View attachment 23566

I then simulated it again except I picked Illinois over Purdue:
View attachment 23567
This would give us the 2nd seed. So we basically need to win out to even have a chance at getting a double bye.

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Don’t care where we are seeded ( 5-8 most likely) - it all comes down to the matchups

And I don’t want PSU or Indiana

IlliniMike_Aurora said:

Don’t care where we are seeded ( 5-8 most likely) - it all comes down to the matchups

And I don’t want PSU or Indiana

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I'd love Indiana again with a fully healthy roster on a neutral court.

BTW, I hate them with a passion, so probably why I'd like another shot.

IllinialuminAZ said:

I'd love Indiana again with a fully healthy roster on a neutral court.

BTW, I hate them with a passion, so probably why I'd like another shot.

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Agreed on the hatred , just don’t seem to have the answer for TJD without Kofi

IlliniMike_Aurora said:

Don’t care where we are seeded ( 5-8 most likely) - it all comes down to the matchups

And I don’t want PSU or Indiana

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Doesn't really matter where we are seeded or who we are matched up with. If we play hard, shoot more than 30% from three, shoot free throws over 60%, and don't commit dumba$$ turnovers we have a good chance to win the BTT.... The fact that we are still discussing these four basic basketball subjects this late in the season with this Illini team is not cool.

IlliniMike_Aurora said:

Agreed on the hatred , just don’t seem to have the answer for TJD without Kofi

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True...I definitely liked the game plan better this time around. He's a load though.

If you had to choose one, would you rather win the B1G Tournament OR make the sweet 16.

I think I would rather hang another Banner.

theNewGuy said:

If you had to choose one, would you rather win the B1G Tournament OR make the sweet 16.

I think I would rather hang another Banner.

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My vote is for 2nd weekend in march

theNewGuy said:

If you had to choose one, would you rather win the B1G Tournament OR make the sweet 16.

I think I would rather hang another Banner.

Click to expand...

These are roughly equal for me. But for this year specifically, I'd rather see a S16. Gotta get that monkey off our back.

theNewGuy said:

If you had to choose one, would you rather win the B1G Tournament OR make the sweet 16.

I think I would rather hang another Banner.

Click to expand...

Sweet 16 , I think we need it more

theNewGuy said:

If you had to choose one, would you rather win the B1G Tournament OR make the sweet 16.

I think I would rather hang another Banner.

Click to expand...

Second weekend and it's not even close for me.

There's already a budding narrative on BU's Illini teams being unable to get out of the first weekend. A third consecutive year of it enters that narrative into full bloom, so to speak. Don't want to hear it, don't want to argue with people about it, don't want it to be a thing. Want it put to bed now, this year.

Another BTT banner does little if anything for me, personally.

turnaround3 said:

Second weekend and it's not even close for me.

There's already a budding narrative on BU's Illini teams being unable to get out of the first weekend. A third consecutive year of it enters that narrative into full bloom, so to speak. Don't want to hear it, don't want to argue with people about it, don't want it to be a thing. Want it put to bed now, this year.

Another BTT banner does little if anything for me, personally.

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This.

turnaround3 said:

Second weekend and it's not even close for me.

There's already a budding narrative on BU's Illini teams being unable to get out of the first weekend. A third consecutive year of it enters that narrative into full bloom, so to speak. Don't want to hear it, don't want to argue with people about it, don't want it to be a thing. Want it put to bed now, this year.

Another BTT banner does little if anything for me, personally.

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This. 100%.

Big ten tournament titles are fun, of course. But man, did that good feeling dissipate in as little as a week when ol' Krutwig and the boys came through Indy

IlliniFanTX said:

This. 100%.

Big ten tournament titles are fun, of course. But man, did that good feeling dissipate in as little as a week when ol' Krutwig and the boys came through Indy

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Under normal circumstances, I’d say the winning the BIG or the BTT is a slightly better accomplishment than S16. Given our current S16 drought, I’d rather see us in the 2nd weekend of the tourney.

2qtslow said:

It is startling to consider that a 5-2 record from here on out might not get us a double bye for the tournament.

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When I check off the things that have gone wrong this season, at least relative to expectations, it's a pretty long list. And I think a number of these, the optimism was warranted. Off the top of my head (I'm sure there's more):

On the down side
Skyy Clark as a borderline 5 star PG. A potential one and done or two and done type of player is not replaceable, and leaving the team is about as a bad an outcome as could happen.
RJ combination of injury and/or soph slump. He was so incredibly efficient last year and has cratered more than any player I can recall. That's a tribute to how good he was last year in limited minutes. I think everyone was looking at a break-out player in the making. Hopefully he's 100% down the road.
Goode with a major injury, in an area where the team has the greatest need. Lost some length and desperately needed 3 point shooting.
Defense, specifically 3 point defense. Not sure why this has been a persistent problem, but I assume the switching strategy leads to breakdowns. Overall defensive metrics are solid, but defending the 3 point line has been bad, and teams have made them pay. It's understandable when TJD or some other future NBA guy gets his 20+ points, but the close-outs for open 3s has been hard to watch...

On the plus side
Coleman exceeded my expectations, but I was not expecting a huge leap. The 3 pt shooting is underwhelming, obviously. I think some are disappointed, but he's a definite plus to expectations IMHO. Love his passing, defensive length, and overall game. Has had some great cuts to the basket for easy points and potential fouling opportunities.
Dain has blown away my expectations. Stays out of foul trouble while contributing a ton in every aspect. Hard to imagine where the team would be without him.
Epps/Sincere both exceeding expectations. They're freshman, and I expect some mistakes and inconsistencies, but have earned their spots in the rotation. Epps is another player that has me wondering where the team would be without him. He has the presence to lead a team late game, and is one of the better FT shooters on a team that's below avg.
Mayer has single handedly won or kept the team in several games
TSJ is just plain fun to watch. NBA athleticism all day. Closest thing we have to an Ayo. You need a guy who's fearless in attacking and can poke guys in foul trouble. Epps has surprised me a bit--but TSJ is in your face and able to do it at a high level.

I had always assumed that even if the team struggles during the season, they'd be dangerous come March. But the flaws haven't improved much, and the ceiling, IMHO is lower than was hyped. All that said, I wouldn't be too surprised if they get on a run. The ceiling might not be as high as I originally thought, but they still have stretches where they can play with almost anyone, and as the season ticks away, I could see some things getting cleaned up.