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<blockquote data-quote="dbeverly26" data-source="post: 1361868" data-attributes="member: 515868"><p>It's too early to count anyone in the Big Ten out, but this team has an extreme uphill path if they're going to make it. Because of the weak SoS and three noncon losses, I can't see Illinois getting in absent a massive BTT push if they don't beat GCU and then go 11-7 in conference play. That gets you to 21-12, which is probably good enough for a P5 team to get in.</p><p></p><p>The problem is that they've already punted two games with the tough losses to Maryland and in Rosemont. So you need to go 11-5 the rest of the way out, which is a pretty tall task given the schedule. What we have left is the following:</p><p></p><p>Vs. top tier teams (MSU and PU): 2 home and 1 road</p><p>Vs. bubble teams (MN, UM, OSU and PSU): 1 home and 3 road</p><p>Vs. the rest of the teams (IA/NE/UW/IU/RU): 5 home and 4 road</p><p></p><p>I have trouble seeing 11 wins there. Even if you get 4 out of 7 from the top two groups -- which would probably include either sweeping two top-ten caliber teams at home or stealing two wins against tourney teams on the road -- you still have to win 7 of 9 against the bottom feeders, which includes a couple on the road. More likely, you get three off of the top two groups, which leaves you with basically no margin of error against the last group.</p><p></p><p>It's doable, but if you don't pick up something like five of the next seven, it might not be.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="dbeverly26, post: 1361868, member: 515868"] It's too early to count anyone in the Big Ten out, but this team has an extreme uphill path if they're going to make it. Because of the weak SoS and three noncon losses, I can't see Illinois getting in absent a massive BTT push if they don't beat GCU and then go 11-7 in conference play. That gets you to 21-12, which is probably good enough for a P5 team to get in. The problem is that they've already punted two games with the tough losses to Maryland and in Rosemont. So you need to go 11-5 the rest of the way out, which is a pretty tall task given the schedule. What we have left is the following: Vs. top tier teams (MSU and PU): 2 home and 1 road Vs. bubble teams (MN, UM, OSU and PSU): 1 home and 3 road Vs. the rest of the teams (IA/NE/UW/IU/RU): 5 home and 4 road I have trouble seeing 11 wins there. Even if you get 4 out of 7 from the top two groups -- which would probably include either sweeping two top-ten caliber teams at home or stealing two wins against tourney teams on the road -- you still have to win 7 of 9 against the bottom feeders, which includes a couple on the road. More likely, you get three off of the top two groups, which leaves you with basically no margin of error against the last group. It's doable, but if you don't pick up something like five of the next seven, it might not be. [/QUOTE]
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