1/24 Bracketology

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#3      

Ignatius Shang

Ignatius Shang
5th year PhD, school of Information Sciences
Champaign, IL
Ignatius Shang
It is higher than I expected, but makes sense on second thoughts. We have two huge wins, and haven't really suffered tough Q3/4 losses. Losing to NW on road and PSU at home this year is not as terrible as it was in the previous years.
 
#4      

Pikeillinifan

Pikeillinifan
Pikeillinifan
I'm typically optimistic with W/L predictions, but at this point it looks like we're going to finish the regular season at 6-6. That should get us in, and who knows, if we get hot I'd love to see at least the Sweet 16 this year.
 
#5      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
Ignatius Shang said:
It is higher than I expected, but makes sense on second thoughts. We have two huge wins, and haven't really suffered tough Q3/4 losses. Losing to NW on road and PSU at home this year is not as terrible as it was in the previous years.
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I agree. So far, all 6 losses are to potential teams in the tourney. There is no catastrophic loss at all this year, and UCLA/Texas wins will continue to prop up the resume (especially if the Illini play about .500 basketball through the rest of season). Depending how the season finishes, I could see a seed ranging from 5-12, but I expect an invite to the Tourney, barring a late season collapse.
 
#6      

doowink

D
doowink
Illini2010-11 said:
I agree. So far, all 6 losses are to potential teams in the tourney. There is no catastrophic loss at all this year, and UCLA/Texas wins will continue to prop up the resume (especially if the Illini play about .500 basketball through the rest of season). Depending how the season finishes, I could see a seed ranging from 5-12, but I expect an invite to the Tourney, barring a late season collapse.
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Hopefully we will finish out the season better than .500...I will be disappointed if we don't....but more importantly I feel like we need to play more consistently (physically and mentally) the remaining 10-12 games
 
#8      

mysterio2525

mysterio2525
mysterio2525
Hoping that the Indiana game was just an off night against a hot team. If so and we have turned the corner then I do think a 4/5 seed isn't out of the question and this team could beat any 1 seed if they hit 3s.

I think the ceiling is a 3 seed (2 seed if we essentially win out) and the floor would be around a 10 seed with our wins.
 
#9      

Roundball Sage

R
Roundball Sage
Congratulations to Kansas State who have risen to #5 in the Nation in the latest AP Poll. But that’s not the big thing.

The big thing is that K-State has finally vaulted above their Big Brother from Lawrence who have slid to #9. Sure... 9th is not shabby by any means. But it’s the Principle of the thing. Little Brother (in basketball, not football) finally besting Big One.

It’s no fun always being second to someone else in your neighborhood. And it brings joy and satisfaction to your fans when you finally climb over that mountain.

Kansas may yet have the last laugh. But for now, the smiles are in Manhattan and the frowns are in Lawrence. And the Cats are having fun and at play while the Birds are looking for answers and sideways at each other.

And just the thought of that brings a few smiles to the Prairie Lands.
 
#10      

Birdus

B
Birdus
Illini2010-11 said:
I agree. So far, all 6 losses are to potential teams in the tourney. There is no catastrophic loss at all this year, and UCLA/Texas wins will continue to prop up the resume (especially if the Illini play about .500 basketball through the rest of season). Depending how the season finishes, I could see a seed ranging from 5-12, but I expect an invite to the Tourney, barring a late season collapse.
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This is a weird year!
 
#11      

Birdus

B
Birdus
Pikeillinifan said:
I'm typically optimistic with W/L predictions, but at this point it looks like we're going to finish the regular season at 6-6. That should get us in, and who knows, if we get hot I'd love to see at least the Sweet 16 this year.
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Let's hope that we finish up 6-6. Anything could happen at this point.
 
#13      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
Champaignheat said:
I think we end the year 12-8 in conference.
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That would probably get us a top 3 finish the way things are going this year. Last time I checked Torvik had only 3 teams expected to finish above .500 in the league, with 7 at 10-10, including us.
 
#14      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Some fun "what if" scenario thinking this afternoon.

Let's say we drop home games against Northwestern and Michigan down the stretch, but make it up with a road win at Wisconsin and a huge win at Purdue. Then drop our first BTT game to, I dunno, Northwestern again or something.

That would put our final team sheet at:
Q1: 6-8 (3-4 Q1a)
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 7-0

Instead say we just win out at home (same BTT result). Then our resume is:
Q1: 4-10 (2-5 Q1a)
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 7-0

Both of those are 19-13 records, but they'd no doubt be viewed differently by the committee. The first reads like "elite potential, but they haven't put it together consistently" while the 2nd looks like "consistent but not usually able to beat the best teams".
 
#15      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
I think we should be hoping for better than 6-6 (KenPom's most likely finish is still 7-5), but also optimistic that even 6-6 should get us in the dance.
 
#16      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
danielb927 said:
Some fun "what if" scenario thinking this afternoon.

Let's say we drop home games against Northwestern and Michigan down the stretch, but make it up with a road win at Wisconsin and a huge win at Purdue. Then drop our first BTT game to, I dunno, Northwestern again or something.

That would put our final team sheet at:
Q1: 6-8 (3-4 Q1a)
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 7-0

Instead say we just win out at home (same BTT result). Then our resume is:
Q1: 4-10 (2-5 Q1a)
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 7-0

Both of those are 19-13 records, but they'd no doubt be viewed differently by the committee. The first reads like "elite potential, but they haven't put it together consistently" while the 2nd looks like "consistent but not usually able to beat the best teams".
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Both of those scenarios should be able to keep the team on the right side of the bubble (though the second might require a win in B1G Tourney to be safe).

If Illini go 6-6 the rest of the way, which includes an improbable upset at Purdue, I would think that that would almost put the Illini in a near lock position, regardless of what happens in B1G tourney (unless it is a loss vs MN/NEB). I still think 20 total wins should be considered complete lock territory, but as you indicate, 19 wins with a huge road win against top ranked (assuming they remain #1) Purdue would be almost as near a lock as possible.

But I say, let's get to 21 wins in reg season (8-4 the rest of way) and remove any question of doubt. If Illini go 3-0 the next 8 days, then this has a real shot. I still think getting to 19 wins that does not include a loss to MN/NEB should still be in pretty good shape, but winning one in the B1G Tourney might be needed to ease any sweating on Selection Sunday in that event.
 
#17      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Illini2010-11 said:
Both of those scenarios should be able to keep the team on the right side of the bubble (though the second might require a win in B1G Tourney to be safe).

If Illini go 6-6 the rest of the way, which includes an improbable upset at Purdue, I would think that that would almost put the Illini in a near lock position, regardless of what happens in B1G tourney (unless it is a loss vs MN/NEB). I still think 20 total wins should be considered complete lock territory, but as you indicate, 19 wins with a huge road win against top ranked (assuming they remain #1) Purdue would be almost as near a lock as possible.

But I say, let's get to 21 wins in reg season (8-4 the rest of way) and remove any question of doubt. If Illini go 3-0 the next 8 days, then this has a real shot. I still think getting to 19 wins that does not include a loss to MN/NEB should still be in pretty good shape, but winning one in the B1G Tourney might be needed to ease any sweating on Selection Sunday in that event.
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110% agree with the bolded!

I think 19 wins and we're in, full stop. However, that doesn't mean we wouldn't still be sweating it as fans ;)
 
#18      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
If we finish 19-12 (10-10) I think it very likely if not certain that we get in. We will have a least two top 10 wins. We will also likely be at worst in a tie for 5th in the conference. This year it is even possible that a 10-10 team could get a double bye. If we avoid a bad loss (i.e. MN at home), we will have probably the best resume of 10-10 league teams. If we don't get the double bye or if we don't win a game in the tourney, we might be sweating on Selection Sunday, but I still think we get in. Unless there are less than 8 teams from the B1G in the tourney, we should be one of the eight or more assuming we finish .500.
That being said, I like the idea of finishing above .500 so we don't have to sweat, and slao because it would have been a waste of the talent and depth we have on this roster to not do better.
 
#19      

fuggles

F
fuggles
I see 8 wins left in conference.

Today
at Wisky
Neb
at Iowa
Minny
Rutgers
Northwestern
Michigan

with possible upside of @ OSU or @ PSU. Best road team in conference for how many years?

That is why they play the games. lol
 
#20      

grue2

G
grue2
Moving this to the bracketology thread.

Fighter of the Nightman said:
There have obviously been a few total flops (lookin' at you, Iowa, losing to Eastern Illinois!), but the other non-conference results (Illinois over UCLA/Texas, Purdue over Gonzaga/Duke/Marquette, Indiana over Xavier, etc.) point to the Big Ten cannibalizing itself at least as much as it being "overrated," IMO.
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Once conferences hit league play, they are pretty much just moving around rating points. No one is going to move much if they all play near .500, or even 12-8 w/narrow wins and losses. Any losses to MN will really hurt the league. Losing to NB is only slightly better. Either effectively throwing rating points out of the pool.

Predictions - time to get flamed:
6 Big10 teams are seeded 6-11 this year.
If IL loses today, they get a 10-11 seed (10-10 in conference), and have a non-trivial chance of missing the tourney at 9-11.
If IL wins today, they get a 7-10 seed. (12-8 to 10-10 in conference, my bet is on 11-9 and a 8-9 seed.)

I was expecting better until I took off my glasses and looked at the remaining schedule. I don't see this changing unless there is a major improvement in the offensive schemes and execution. The ball needs to bounce less, and pass at a higher velocity. The few possessions where they passed, and put some snap in it resulted in good looks. Other things that would help are becoming elite at hitting our MF free throws and layups, and taking the open 3 pt looks. Pardon the coach speak.
 
#21      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
grue2 said:
Predictions - time to get flamed:
6 Big10 teams are seeded 6-11 this year.
If IL loses today, they get a 10-11 seed (10-10 in conference), and have a non-trivial chance of missing the tourney at 9-11.
If IL wins today, they get a 7-10 seed. (12-8 to 10-10 in conference, my bet is on 11-9 and a 8-9 seed.)

I was expecting better until I took off my glasses and looked at the remaining schedule. I don't see this changing unless there is a major improvement in the offensive schemes and execution. The ball needs to bounce less, and pass at a higher velocity. The few possessions where they passed, and put some snap in it resulted in good looks. Other things that would help are becoming elite at hitting our MF free throws and layups, and taking the open 3 pt looks. Pardon the coach speak.
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If Illini go 11-9 in B1G regular season, meaning finishing 7-5 the rest of the way and no bad loss along way, I cannot imagine getting anything worse than a 7 seed in the tournament (Illini would be 20-11/12(if lose first game in B1G tourney)). The UCLA and Texas wins will push the resume a lot compared to peers.

I think the Illini have a better shot at 8/9 seed if they go 6-6 out and beat MN is B1G tourney then lose next game (20-13). I think getting above .500 in B1G play likely gets Illini at 7 seed or better, IMO.
 
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#22      

Navy_illini

N
Navy_illini
Remember BTT games historically have little to no impact on seeding for the tournament. A team seed is determined by the regular season.

With no one other than Bama/PU taking care of business the margin from a 3 to 10 seed is not as big in years past
 
#23      

grue2

G
grue2
Navy_illini said:
Remember BTT games historically have little to no impact on seeding for the tournament. A team seed is determined by the regular season.
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I've heard that the championship game mostly gets ignored. I've never heard that the entire BTT tourney gets ignored. Do you have any sort of reference for this? If true, the winning strategy may be to deliberately lose your first BTT game, and take the rest.

I agree that the 3-10 seeds are a lot closer this year than in the past. I might even include some of the 2 seeds. My fear is that the top ~5 teams will eat IL alive. I'd like to avoid them as long as possible, so I don't want a 4-5, or 8-9 seed. Other than enjoying the wins along the way, I'd rather get a 10 seed than a 4 seed.
 
#25      

Navy_illini

N
Navy_illini
grue2 said:
I've heard that the championship game mostly gets ignored. I've never heard that the entire BTT tourney gets ignored. Do you have any sort of reference for this? If true, the winning strategy may be to deliberately lose your first BTT game, and take the rest.

I agree that the 3-10 seeds are a lot closer this year than in the past. I might even include some of the 2 seeds. My fear is that the top ~5 teams will eat IL alive. I'd like to avoid them as long as possible, so I don't want a 4-5, or 8-9 seed. Other than enjoying the wins along the way, I'd rather get a 10 seed than a 4 seed.
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My evidence is listening to the chairman talk to CBS each year. We as fans put way more stock than the committee. A strong performance might be a tie breaker against even resumes. But iirc they don’t seem to give the same weight to regular season. Last year look at A&M their wins against Florida Auburn and Arkansas didn’t get them in over Wyoming.

“HIT: Beyond the seeding, the committee got the teams right, too. I spent an hour in the late afternoon deciphering Texas A&M and Wyoming, reluctantly settling on the Aggies on account of their late run. But Wyoming had a better season-long résumé and was more than deserving. I should have stuck to my gut and the original plan to drop A&M if Richmond stole a bid. Instead, it's another 67 out of 68 year for yours truly, and I honestly don't have another team to bump in favor of the Aggies (although Notre Dame cut it unexpectedly close).”

www.espn.com

Hits, misses from Joe Lunardi and the selection committee

Tennessee a 3-seed? Three teams below .500? Bracketologist Joe Lunardi on the surprises and takeaways from the NCAA men's tournament bracket reveal.
www.espn.com

“The results of major conference tournaments—particularly the championship games played on Selection Sunday—also aren't nearly as drastic as many want to believe. Worlock said that even if Kentucky had beaten Florida (the No. 1 overall seed) in last year's SEC Championship Game, the Wildcats were still going to be the No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region.”

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Behind the Scenes: How the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Really Works

INDIANAPOLIS — How much do you know about how the NCAA tournament field comes together? You know how to fill out a bracket. You might even know how to build a projected bracket...
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