1/24 Bracketology

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#228      
How about the 5 guys on the floor with this year's team? With all the transfers now, for many teams, the only thing that stays the same is the coach.
They still need to prove it. I don't believe in them. Let me have that no belief in them and you go ahead and have that belief and we'll see at the end of the day.
 
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#229      
This is 100% accurate, and I apologize to the board, because I believe that my statements were causing contention last night, when in fact it was not intended.

KenPom has done an excellent job, as a whole, in determining strength of a team, and I believe it is one of the best metrics around. Minnesota would be around 190 regardless of what conference they played in, because they are truly a poor team by whatever metric you want to use, and they may squeak out a couple more games in a lesser conference but would not move the needle in KenPom. KemPom is actually one of the tools that I take a look at before making sport bets.

When I was speaking last night, rather ineloquently, was that I believe State of Chicago (the initial post that started this discussion) thinks that Minnesota would be competing for a top 4 position in WCC (likely based on perceived talent of the worst B1G roster). In order to get to top 4 in that league, unless you have a ton of "lucky" type factor wins to get there, they would be somewhere in the 100 range of KenPom (as reference San Francisco is 6th in WCC and ranked 97 KenPom). Could Minnesota get there? Maybe in 1-2% of models at best. The extreme likelihood is that Minnesota hovers very close to their current ranking if they played in the WCC (or any conference for that matter). Unless defying general statistical odds, it would be very difficult to obtain a top 4 position in WCC this year and not be around 100 KenPom at worst. In no way do I think MN would be anywhere close to that number...they are really bad (and Illini need to blow them out next Tuesday for good measure).
We'll think about forgiving you.
 
#230      

The Galloping Ghost

Washington, DC
A pretty good summation of our season thus far. The Athletic($) has us, rightfully, as "Should be in":
Lock: Purdue
Should be in: Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois
Work to do: Ohio State, Iowa, Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Illinois (15-6, 6-4; NET: 26, SOS: 34): It has felt like Illinois has had a weird, confusing season, and in many ways that’s true: The heavily remade Illini looked like world-beaters against UCLA and Texas, but lost to Penn State by 15 at home four days later and then Missouri by 22 in Saint Louis Dec. 22. At 9-5 on Jan. 4, and with freshman point guard Skyy Clark stepping away from the team for personal reasons a couple days later, Illini fans worried that the roster was coming apart at the seams. The Illini are 6-1 since. The result is a resume that feels … very straightforward, actually. The Illini are 4-5 in Quadrant 1 with a couple of great neutral-court wins and a few forgivable losses to quality opponents (particularly if you ignore the margins of victory, which the human members of the committee typically would), with just one non-Quad 1 defeat (Penn State) and no bad losses. For as much drama as this series of linear results has generated along the way, this team sheet appears to be the work of a very solid tournament team.
 
#231      
They still need to prove it. I don't believe in them. Let me have that no belief in them and you go ahead and have that belief and we'll see at the end of the day.

That wasn't his point. His point was that this year's team has nothing to do with last year's team or the disappointment of the year before that.

You can hold whatever irrational beliefs that can be easily disproven by facts all you want, but it doesn't make those beliefs correct.
 
#232      
They still need to prove it. I don't believe in them. Let me have that no belief in them and you go ahead and have that belief and we'll see at the end of the day.
I'm not a Purdue fan and I don't necessarily believe in them. I'm just saying the ONLY way you judge a team can't be by it's school's previous performance, especially in this transfer driven times of NCAA basketball. If that were the case, Illinois could never win the tournament.
 
#234      
I'm doing back-to-back games the next two weekends. Going to Iowa City this weekend and then Champaign for Rutgers. If we lose both you know who to blame now. ;)
I'll also be in Iowa City (visiting my dad and decided to hit up the game with some Iowa friends). As I said in another post, I am cautiously optimistic that there will be a lot of Illini fans!!
 
#235      
That wasn't his point. His point was that this year's team has nothing to do with last year's team or the disappointment of the year before that.

You can hold whatever irrational beliefs that can be easily disproven by facts all you want, but it doesn't make those beliefs correct.
I don't care what his point is. I don't believe in Purdue. I don't know how many times and more ways I need to say it. You aren't going to change my mind about them. Now move on please. Goodness.
 
#236      
I'm not a Purdue fan and I don't necessarily believe in them. I'm just saying the ONLY way you judge a team can't be by it's school's previous performance, especially in this transfer driven times of NCAA basketball. If that were the case, Illinois could never win the tournament.
I didn't say they can't win the tournament. I said I don't believe they are going to win the tournament. Like I said to the other guy. I don't know how many times I need to repeat this. I don't believe in them. I feel like you are trying to bully me into or twist my arm until I fall in line with you and it's just not going to happen. I'm not going to change my mind no matter how many times you respond.
 
#237      
I didn't say they can't win the tournament. I said I don't believe they are going to win the tournament. Like I said to the other guy. I don't know how many times I need to repeat this. I don't believe in them. I feel like you are trying to bully me into or twist my arm until I fall in line with you and it's just not going to happen. I'm not going to change my mind no matter how many times you respond.

Ah, so you're going to take the field vs. Purdue in the NCAA tournament.

Bold Strategy Cotton GIF by MOODMAN
 
#239      
I'll also be in Iowa City (visiting my dad and decided to hit up the game with some Iowa friends). As I said in another post, I am cautiously optimistic that there will be a lot of Illini fans!!
EDIT: Not sure where to put this, but Carver-Hawkeye Arena seats 15,056. While I do not doubt that their fans get up for the Illinois game, especially when it is a big game for both of us, they have rarely come that close to selling out this year, including a big rivalry game, games vs. ranked opponents and some weekend games:

14,535 vs. #20 Iowa State (Thursday at 7:00 pm)
13,907 vs. Rutgers (Sunday at 1:00 pm)
13,376 vs. Maryland (Sunday at 3:30 pm)
11,916 vs. #15 Indiana (Thursday at 8:00 pm)

I have been to a LOT of Illini/Iowa games in Iowa City over the years, and that includes at least four Orange Krush invasions. The total Illini presence has ranged from the usual 1,000 or so all the way up to 6,000 plus the Krush in 2005 (that was a wild experience). I'd say given those numbers and the fact that the Krush hasn't had a road trip yet, it just might feel like a neutral court. :)
 
#241      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
I didn't say they can't win the tournament. I said I don't believe they are going to win the tournament. Like I said to the other guy. I don't know how many times I need to repeat this. I don't believe in them. I feel like you are trying to bully me into or twist my arm until I fall in line with you and it's just not going to happen. I'm not going to change my mind no matter how many times you respond.
Of course you shouldn't believe Purdue will win the tournament...because Illini are going to win it! Don't care how many people tell me I am drinking orange kool-aid. No matter how many tell me I am delusional, it will never change my mind.
 
#242      
Of course you shouldn't believe Purdue will win the tournament...because Illini are going to win it! Don't care how many people tell me I am drinking orange kool-aid. No matter how many tell me I am delusional, it will never change my mind.
Because of past performance. It is like you have flipped a coin 50 times and got heads 50 times in a row. The next time it just has to be tails.
 
#243      
Of course you shouldn't believe Purdue will win the tournament...because Illini are going to win it! Don't care how many people tell me I am drinking orange kool-aid. No matter how many tell me I am delusional, it will never change my mind.
:giggle:
 
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