Not sure how they constructed their formula but it needs some serious work if that's the case as there's no chance. We already have 3 losses and will have no wins over other final week Top 25 CFP teams. There is no historical precedent for a team with that resume and losses to finish in the CFP Top 12. A 3 loss team making the playoffs is rare, but when they do make it, they have at least 1 marquis win, and generally that win is on the road. Losing to Minnesota sealed the deal for us.Late last night, an elaborate analysis of playoff probabilities (College Football Network) gave Illinois a small but nonzero chance to make the playoffs:
"Other teams with high playoff probability not in the top 25:
Louisiana: 48.30%
Tulane: 9.90%
Illinois: 6.58%
Arizona State: 4.49%"
Hard to believe. but OK.
Updated College Football Playoff Chances: Projections and Probabilities for 12-Team Field Ahead of Week 12
Which teams have the best chances to make the College Football Playoffs in 2024? Our exclusive probability model hands out the latest projections.collegefootballnetwork.com
CFB Playoff
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Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If Illinois makes playoff at 9-3, I fully expect a meteor to take out the world in short order.
0.0658% chance makes more sense. Has to be a decimal error in the formula.
Like when networks do the NFL playoff forecasts and 6-8 teams are still "in the hunt."Late last night, an elaborate analysis of playoff probabilities (College Football Network) gave Illinois a small but nonzero chance to make the playoffs:
"Other teams with high playoff probability not in the top 25:
Louisiana: 48.30%
Tulane: 9.90%
Illinois: 6.58%
Arizona State: 4.49%"
Hard to believe. but OK.
Updated College Football Playoff Chances: Projections and Probabilities for 12-Team Field Ahead of Week 12
Which teams have the best chances to make the College Football Playoffs in 2024? Our exclusive probability model hands out the latest projections.
So let's say ND and Texas both go 11-1... Ole Miss, UGA, Tennessee, Bama all finish 10-2... and IU, Oregon, OSU, PSU all finish 11-1. That's 10 teams... Who gets left out?
(Because remember: Boise, ACC, and B12 will all get an automatic vote)
Somebody's gonna get their feelings hurt this year...
(Because remember: Boise, ACC, and B12 will all get an automatic vote)
Somebody's gonna get their feelings hurt this year...
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Depends how bad Indiana loses. They've played a good awful schedule. If OSU boat races them, they'll get left out.
Well this is now officially busted...
Let's say ND goes 11-1
Ole Miss, UGA, Tennessee, Bama, Texas, and Texas A&M goes 10-2 (A&M beats Texas)
and IU, Oregon, OSU, PSU go 11-1
That's 11 teams..... who are the two that get left out?
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As insane as this might sound first glance - 11-1 big ten team, etc, etc - it honestly might not be all that unreasonable when u think about it.
If the SEC gets 6, just drop the pretense and set up the superconference.
I think Texas is one of them if that happens
If Army makes it through the remainder of their schedule undefeated (ND, UTSA, Tulane, Navy), I would assume they’d pass Boise St (Wyoming, Org St, MWC champ game) in the rankings to be the G5 conference winner making the playoffs.
I wonder if they’d still pass Boise St if they lose a close one to Notre Dame. I think a win over Tulane would be a more impressive win than anything on Boise’s schedule.
I wonder if they’d still pass Boise St if they lose a close one to Notre Dame. I think a win over Tulane would be a more impressive win than anything on Boise’s schedule.
Exactly... If IU played Tennessee or Ole Miss, would anyone here put money on the Hoosiers????
I wouldn't put money on them against any of the SEC's top 7... A 2 loss SEC should be above a 1 loss IU...
But whether that "should" turns into "will" is another discussion...
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I would put money on the over. Lots of scoring.
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