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Chicago Cubs 2019 Season
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<blockquote data-quote="FollowTisdale" data-source="post: 1440397" data-attributes="member: 619279"><p>Defensive statistics take around 3 years to stabilize. The rule of thumb for 1 year stats (Schwarber had 4 defensive runs saved last year including a positional adjustment) is to regress at least half towards 0. So yes, like I said before, he had a good small sample last year. The OF assists is a big part of that, he has a good arm so that is a talent, but he likely got an inordinate amount of attempts last year which will even out over the 3 year sample size. Errors are pointless, especially for a guy like Schwarber who has limited range. Also, he's particularly suited for playing half his games in Wrigley, small LF and balls over your head turn into ivy doubles a lot more than other parks</p><p></p><p>Fangraphs has him pegged as a -2 run fielder in the OF next year, and that's based on the whole 2000 inning sample and not just last years 943. There may have been an actual talent jump last year (he did slim down), but like I said, he's probably somewhere between a scratch, 0 run defender in LF and -5 runs.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="FollowTisdale, post: 1440397, member: 619279"] Defensive statistics take around 3 years to stabilize. The rule of thumb for 1 year stats (Schwarber had 4 defensive runs saved last year including a positional adjustment) is to regress at least half towards 0. So yes, like I said before, he had a good small sample last year. The OF assists is a big part of that, he has a good arm so that is a talent, but he likely got an inordinate amount of attempts last year which will even out over the 3 year sample size. Errors are pointless, especially for a guy like Schwarber who has limited range. Also, he's particularly suited for playing half his games in Wrigley, small LF and balls over your head turn into ivy doubles a lot more than other parks Fangraphs has him pegged as a -2 run fielder in the OF next year, and that's based on the whole 2000 inning sample and not just last years 943. There may have been an actual talent jump last year (he did slim down), but like I said, he's probably somewhere between a scratch, 0 run defender in LF and -5 runs. [/QUOTE]
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