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Chicago Cubs 2019 Season
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<blockquote data-quote="champaignchris" data-source="post: 1454536" data-attributes="member: 26283"><p>So, assuming the Cubs don't go contrary to everything they and the press have been saying all winter and do a last minute effort to get Harper, the Cubs are looking at payroll commitments of about $175M going into 2020, using BR's arbitration calculations and assuming they pick up Rizzo's and Quintana's options but don't pick up Morrow's ($12M - there's pretty much no way they're picking this up - they can get what he gives for a lost less money) or Brach's ($5M - could pick it up if he proves the first half of 2018 was a fluke). That would put them approximately $34M below the luxury tax. Along with probably losing Morrow and Brach, they are losing Cole Hamels, Ben Zobrist, Strop, Cishek and a couple other bullpen spare parts to free agency. So they'll be looking for a middle infielder/outfielder, starting pitching and a bunch of bullpen help. </p><p></p><p>My question is... what are they going to spend the money on? I suppose that assumes they are actually going to spend back up towards the cap again and aren't going to sink back towards the middle of the pack in payroll. It would be stupid for them to do that, considering the relative youth of the core of the team and the fact that they should still be well within their championship window, but frankly not much this team has done this winter has made much sense to me.</p><p></p><p>So, assuming that they are going to spend the money, the big position player in free agency will be Xander Bogaerts. He'll be 27, a middle infielder who's OPS'ed about .800 over the last four seasons, with a WAR of 3.5-4.5 a year depending on which formula you like. He won't be getting Machado/Harper money, but $20-$25M a year over 7 or 8 years seems like a pretty good guess assuming he has a typical year in 2019. Frankly, I'd be shocked if the Red Sox let him get away, and there's already been extension talk. After Bogaerts, pickings among position players is pretty slim. Ozuna and Puig are two starting outfield options who won't command as much money as Bogaerts. And there are plenty of 4th outfield/platoon-types like Lonnie Chisenhall that can be had for a song. </p><p></p><p>Starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner (30) and Chris Sale (31) will both be free agents. Both have been unimpeachable when healthy. But that's the issue with pitchers, right? On paper, they should be worth more than Darvish's 6 year, $127M contract, but I think a very good argument can be made that the Cubs overpaid for that. Kershaw, who's the same age as Mad Bum and Sale and even better, just signed a 3 year, $93M extension. So, maybe Sale and Mad Bum are looking in the 5 year, $125-$130M range. Bumgarner might be more attractive because he's a pretty good candidate for a mid-season trade and would thus not have any draft penalties attached to signing him. Rick Porcello (31) would be another, cheaper option who could eat some quality innings. Or maybe this is the year Montgomery sticks in the rotation, or Chatwood figures out his command, or Alzolay or Mills or Steele or Underwood surprise and have a great rookie year, or Graveman comes back from TJS and looks phenomenal, and the Cubs don't need to sign a free agent starter... </p><p></p><p>Dellin Betances is about the only sexy name among the bullpen free agents who'll get much more than pocket change for a contract. (How much do you trust Jeremy Jeffress?) He'll be 32 and has been a horse for the Yankees for the last 5 years. He's an NYC native, and like Bogaerts, I'd not be shocked at all if he never reaches free agency. Frankly, if the Cubs were going to spend big on the bullpen in free agency, this was the year to do it, not next year. The Cubs know this and Theo and co have been trolling all year for cheap bullpen depth. You can buy a decent bullpen from scratch. The only question will they be looking to sign 6 guys or 3? Will anyone of the remaining pitchers besides Carl Edwards step up and show some value. </p><p></p><p>Of course, they could be spending that money on extensions of their current young players. Hendricks, Baez, Contreras, and Schwarber would all be candidates. And Bryant, too, but we all know that's not happening. (Boras.) A recent report came out that they were not currently talking extension with Baez and Hendricks. I particularly surprised about Hendricks, because if Aaron Nola's recent extension is any indication of the market, he could probably be had for pretty cheap, and Hendricks is not the type of pitcher who should worry you about arm injuries or deteriorating due to age. </p><p></p><p>There's also the possibility of trading for a relatively big contract, but who? I don't really see a big contract that the Cubs would want to take on, on a team that would be willing to part with that player.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="champaignchris, post: 1454536, member: 26283"] So, assuming the Cubs don't go contrary to everything they and the press have been saying all winter and do a last minute effort to get Harper, the Cubs are looking at payroll commitments of about $175M going into 2020, using BR's arbitration calculations and assuming they pick up Rizzo's and Quintana's options but don't pick up Morrow's ($12M - there's pretty much no way they're picking this up - they can get what he gives for a lost less money) or Brach's ($5M - could pick it up if he proves the first half of 2018 was a fluke). That would put them approximately $34M below the luxury tax. Along with probably losing Morrow and Brach, they are losing Cole Hamels, Ben Zobrist, Strop, Cishek and a couple other bullpen spare parts to free agency. So they'll be looking for a middle infielder/outfielder, starting pitching and a bunch of bullpen help. My question is... what are they going to spend the money on? I suppose that assumes they are actually going to spend back up towards the cap again and aren't going to sink back towards the middle of the pack in payroll. It would be stupid for them to do that, considering the relative youth of the core of the team and the fact that they should still be well within their championship window, but frankly not much this team has done this winter has made much sense to me. So, assuming that they are going to spend the money, the big position player in free agency will be Xander Bogaerts. He'll be 27, a middle infielder who's OPS'ed about .800 over the last four seasons, with a WAR of 3.5-4.5 a year depending on which formula you like. He won't be getting Machado/Harper money, but $20-$25M a year over 7 or 8 years seems like a pretty good guess assuming he has a typical year in 2019. Frankly, I'd be shocked if the Red Sox let him get away, and there's already been extension talk. After Bogaerts, pickings among position players is pretty slim. Ozuna and Puig are two starting outfield options who won't command as much money as Bogaerts. And there are plenty of 4th outfield/platoon-types like Lonnie Chisenhall that can be had for a song. Starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner (30) and Chris Sale (31) will both be free agents. Both have been unimpeachable when healthy. But that's the issue with pitchers, right? On paper, they should be worth more than Darvish's 6 year, $127M contract, but I think a very good argument can be made that the Cubs overpaid for that. Kershaw, who's the same age as Mad Bum and Sale and even better, just signed a 3 year, $93M extension. So, maybe Sale and Mad Bum are looking in the 5 year, $125-$130M range. Bumgarner might be more attractive because he's a pretty good candidate for a mid-season trade and would thus not have any draft penalties attached to signing him. Rick Porcello (31) would be another, cheaper option who could eat some quality innings. Or maybe this is the year Montgomery sticks in the rotation, or Chatwood figures out his command, or Alzolay or Mills or Steele or Underwood surprise and have a great rookie year, or Graveman comes back from TJS and looks phenomenal, and the Cubs don't need to sign a free agent starter... Dellin Betances is about the only sexy name among the bullpen free agents who'll get much more than pocket change for a contract. (How much do you trust Jeremy Jeffress?) He'll be 32 and has been a horse for the Yankees for the last 5 years. He's an NYC native, and like Bogaerts, I'd not be shocked at all if he never reaches free agency. Frankly, if the Cubs were going to spend big on the bullpen in free agency, this was the year to do it, not next year. The Cubs know this and Theo and co have been trolling all year for cheap bullpen depth. You can buy a decent bullpen from scratch. The only question will they be looking to sign 6 guys or 3? Will anyone of the remaining pitchers besides Carl Edwards step up and show some value. Of course, they could be spending that money on extensions of their current young players. Hendricks, Baez, Contreras, and Schwarber would all be candidates. And Bryant, too, but we all know that's not happening. (Boras.) A recent report came out that they were not currently talking extension with Baez and Hendricks. I particularly surprised about Hendricks, because if Aaron Nola's recent extension is any indication of the market, he could probably be had for pretty cheap, and Hendricks is not the type of pitcher who should worry you about arm injuries or deteriorating due to age. There's also the possibility of trading for a relatively big contract, but who? I don't really see a big contract that the Cubs would want to take on, on a team that would be willing to part with that player. [/QUOTE]
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