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Chicago Cubs 2019 Season
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<blockquote data-quote="FollowTisdale" data-source="post: 1469429" data-attributes="member: 619279"><p>Look at Roy Oswalt's vote totals his 1st (and only) year on the ballot, not good. Oswalt had a better peak and a slightly better overall fWAR total (as of now), Hamels has him on longevity and that's basically it (they'll have comparable "wins" totals, but I think votes are past that). Hamels probably has a couple 1-2 win seasons left in him, so that will put him around 55-57 career fWAR, which will ultimately best Oswalts 53 fWAR.</p><p></p><p>Another 1st timer on the ballot last year was Andy Pettitte. He has that Yankees shine, which helps. He and Hamels had similar peaks, but Pettitte was at the top of his game for longer and ends up well above Hamels in career fWAR (68 for Pettitte). Pettitte only got 9.9% of the vote and will probably stay on the ballot for awhile, but he will likely never break the 75% barrier for election.</p><p></p><p>Most likely scenario is Hamels gets a few votes on the 1st ballot, ends up under 5% of the total vote, and falls off after 1 year. Best case scenario is they clear out some of the glut on the ballot (all the guys who should just clearly be in already; Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, etc.) and he gets enough votes to stay on the ballot for a few years.</p><p></p><p><em>Hall of Very Good</em> pitcher for sure.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="FollowTisdale, post: 1469429, member: 619279"] Look at Roy Oswalt's vote totals his 1st (and only) year on the ballot, not good. Oswalt had a better peak and a slightly better overall fWAR total (as of now), Hamels has him on longevity and that's basically it (they'll have comparable "wins" totals, but I think votes are past that). Hamels probably has a couple 1-2 win seasons left in him, so that will put him around 55-57 career fWAR, which will ultimately best Oswalts 53 fWAR. Another 1st timer on the ballot last year was Andy Pettitte. He has that Yankees shine, which helps. He and Hamels had similar peaks, but Pettitte was at the top of his game for longer and ends up well above Hamels in career fWAR (68 for Pettitte). Pettitte only got 9.9% of the vote and will probably stay on the ballot for awhile, but he will likely never break the 75% barrier for election. Most likely scenario is Hamels gets a few votes on the 1st ballot, ends up under 5% of the total vote, and falls off after 1 year. Best case scenario is they clear out some of the glut on the ballot (all the guys who should just clearly be in already; Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, etc.) and he gets enough votes to stay on the ballot for a few years. [I]Hall of Very Good[/I] pitcher for sure. [/QUOTE]
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