You would have had to erase the past five seasons of his track record. If he would have followed up the 16-17 season (first tourney win) with this season, where he would have three, 20-win seasons, then he's probably considered.
Question for Collins is whether he wants to sign an extension with Northwestern (incoming) or if he's going to explore another opportunity. Audige, Bouie, & Beran are seniors but have their COVID year option available (I'm assuming NW isn't going to push them out). If all three come back, they should at least have a tourney contender again. If you can bring in one good transfer to supplement that group, they might be a conference title contender (!). The other side of the coin is Collins could strike now while he is a external job candidate and seek out another opportunity. Go to a place like Notre Dame (just an example) where he'll have more resources, more recruiting freedom, better departmental support, etc. and get a five year extension with a pay bump.