I am concerned there could be a problem with having the college basketball season before effective therapeutics or a vaccine that not many are talking about. I have read about several anecdotal indications that Covid-19 may cause lung damage to people who have had very mild cases. A significant number of the Ocean Princess passengers that tested positive but did not develop severe cases still had the ground glass showing in their lungs after they no longer tested positive. A dive doctor in the UK had a number of his divers get the coronavirus. Some had severe cases and some very mild. Based upon his exams of these patients after they recovered, he was concerned that none of them may ever dive again because of the residual lung damage even in the mild cases. I have read that the Chinese had found that some children had significant lung damage even though they were largely asymptomatic. For this reason, if I were a high level athlete, I would be concerned about getting the coronavirus, even though it is very unlikely that I would experience severe symptoms, at least until more is known.
Coronavirus Pandemic
I don't see the problem as long as you can same-day test everyone in the arena prior to any game.
Don’t want to be a downer either, but do want to be a realist. Suppose there are a hundred people involved in any one, spectatorless game. All get tested just prior to the game and all results are negative ... BUT, there’s one false negative in the tested group (not an unreasonable outcome).
Still too much we don’t know.
Improve the tests and the testing process. Test, test, test. Trace. Develop effective treatments and vaccines. Continuously quality control the whole process.
And, unlike this time, be ready for the next one.
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
According to a doctor working at the hospital nearest me, the test they're using is only about 60% accurate. That's terrible, but it's also the best they have at the moment. We need more widespread testing and more accurate tests. We're seriously deficient in both respects at the moment.
My younger brother is a doctor and we talk about COVID-19 frequently. My Mother passed away ten days ago at age 90 fom COVID-19. I think we are already at the point where the cure is worse than the disease. If you are elderly or have underlying health issues (asthma, chronic bronchitis, diabetes,heart didsease, hypertension, etc), you are at elevated risk from complications related to CV-19 and it makes sense to take great care to protect these people from potential exposure. My mother was in assisted living and got the virus from another resident who tested positive in the hospital a few days earlier. Eleven residents and 10 caregivers were infected last I heard. College students on the whole are at low risk to develop serious complications including death if they become infected. Many will have minimal or no symptoms. I don't know how we will will proceed from here- my guess is we may miss a few games but I expect the bulk of the season to be played. Although I understand people's worries I know a lot of people are really struggling and desperate. I have been lucky so far as I have key role in a large company but anything can happen if things continue on their current course.
I’m sorry for you and your families loss.
That may actually be a case AGAINST your push to proceed. At least if everyone was symptomatic, we could track the spiking of contractions. However if you have a 40,000 kid campus of urban style living, tight classrooms, bars and all the interactions that come with college - it is the absolutely best spot for disease transmission. All it takes is 1% of those to get infected and bring it home to family members that you already know are at risk. That's also ignoring the risk to all of our professors and faculty staff on campus.
A crowded basketball stadium is amplifying the classroom and bar sample size above. Its basically insuring the virus finds new hosts to survive in. I personally think we're pretty much definite on no fans or 1/3rd of seats allowed at football games at best. I don't see them making a decision on basketball until even October when they can assess a potential 2nd wave.
I understand what you are saying but I think the focus should be on keeping those vulnerable people out of harms way rather than making sure as few people as possible spread it. Even to those who are more at risk it's unlikely that you will get infected from passing somebody walking through the grocery store. The VAST majority of cases will be from an infected person touching something and another person touching those germs and at some point they touch their face before they think to wash their hands. BTW, I am not ignoring the risk - it is very real but I think it is one worth taking. I think the professors are the ones who will need to be on the ball protecting themselves. I agree that being in a classroom for an hour is a decent way to get the virus and an arena even more so. I'm okay with limiting the seating and whatever other reasonable accomodations should be made. We cannot stay locked down much longer and maintain a peaceful society. Its also worth noting that the Director of Public Health in Illinois, Dr. Ngozi said that the way the deaths were coded even if somebody was in hospice with a prognosis of a few weeks to live, if they tested positive for CV-19 there death would count as a CV-19 death even if there was a clear alternate cause of death. There was a great meme going around that spoofed a CNN news report, "Couple dies of CV-19 in a meth lab explosion". I'm not saying CV-19 isn't a serious thing - it is very contagious and has and will kill many people - I just don't think it's worth destroying our economy, giving up our freedom or transforming our society - there are things worse than death!
While no doubt overcounting has occurred, undercounting seems to be far more prevalent in non-anecdotal evidence as reported by the CDC.
It would be very interesting to have detailed information on the numbers of deaths, the age and health of the decedents, and any underlying health issues for all of the deaths by state and possibly by zip code. We also should not be looking at our country as having the same issues countrywide - NYC has a very dense population with mass transit being a key component of day-to-day life in the city as well as a means of spreading the virus, A HUGE number of deaths were of elderly people and those with underlying health issues. I am sure that there have been some people that have been uncounted but there are also many that were clearly counted even though the cause of death clearly pointed to something other than COVID-19. It's sad that the issue has become so politicized. A couple of L.A. doctors who recommended opening up the economy posted a video that went viral and it was ultimately removed from Youtube because it allegedly contained "unfounded medical recommendations" inconsistent with World Health Organization recommendations. With all due respect, the WHO has been wrong on many occasions including at the times when getting it right was critical - the Director of the WHO is, IMO a puppet for the Chinese Communist Party. Many of the doctors I have spoken to (I know several) have indicated that they were PRESSURED to list the cause of death as COVID-19! I cannot say that I am particularly swayed by an article from the New York Times....
If there is no vaccine to control Covid 19 there will be no BB season at least not with fans present, pro or college. Beaches are absolutely spacious compare to having 16,000 in the hall, yelling, screaming, and coughing on each other. Fauci said the soonest we could reasonably expect a vaccine is January, that sucks but it is so hard to be positive right now and this year could have been early 2000's type of fun.
Insurance companies, HMOs and government health organizations etc., keep records and have statistical models of death rates for age groups, seasons, and by location. The US is tracking way above the norm, and it isn't because doctors have been pressured on paperwork. Covid is killing directly and indirectly, (e.g. exacerbating a pre-existing condition), and even secondarily and further, such as when people poison themselves by taking some toxic 'cure' promoted by some unqualified idiot, or by delaying going to the hospital out of fear of encountering people with Covid, or because their health insurance was tied to their work and now they're unemployed and can't afford their treatments out of pocket, or because the doctor and/or medicine normally available to treat them has been sent to the Covid health response unit instead. Those deaths are happening, and they're happening because of the Covid crisis. It's exactly that knock-on series of impacts that pandemic planning, prevention and response is all about. That's why it's so important to act quickly and effectively, to ensure all medical resources are NOT deprived from routine medical needs.
Obviously when you cut the pandemic response team from the national security council, refuse to provide federal leadership in acquiring and distributing PPE, and politicize every part of the response rather than just using the medical playbook, the Covid situation will get completely out of control. Things haven't even gotten to the bad part in many states. (Example, Nebraska health officials reported doing 34 tests one day recently, and 100% of them came back positive. Do you think that's enough testing to be ahead of the spread?)
Too many people are in denial about the nature of this threat. Unfortunately, too many of them are going to learn the hard way that over-reaction early is the only real way to stop a pandemic. The Trump administration completely failed at that, and well over 100,000+ Americans have already died because of it, although "only" 61,000 have died with direct attribution to Covid (so far). The real numbers, the death rate above the norm, will be much higher.
Obviously when you cut the pandemic response team from the national security council, refuse to provide federal leadership in acquiring and distributing PPE, and politicize every part of the response rather than just using the medical playbook, the Covid situation will get completely out of control. Things haven't even gotten to the bad part in many states. (Example, Nebraska health officials reported doing 34 tests one day recently, and 100% of them came back positive. Do you think that's enough testing to be ahead of the spread?)
Too many people are in denial about the nature of this threat. Unfortunately, too many of them are going to learn the hard way that over-reaction early is the only real way to stop a pandemic. The Trump administration completely failed at that, and well over 100,000+ Americans have already died because of it, although "only" 61,000 have died with direct attribution to Covid (so far). The real numbers, the death rate above the norm, will be much higher.
Hopefully there is a season! I saw that Purdue has announced campus will be open in the fall. Hopefully the rest of the BIG follows suit and most of the rest of the country. I know Boston U had discussed online only in the fall. No students on campus, likely no games, whether fans or not. Possibility of 20/21 being 21 only as well. Some talk of football in the spring. Hopefully most of life returns to a semi-normal. Could have football and hoops in the spring. Likely some scheduling issues will arise in all sports.
Two physicians, I have talked with said that they would be really surprised if there was not a surge at the start of the academic year and during the normal flu season. The college campus is normally like a petri dish as far as communicable disease go.. Many universities are grappling with the issue, do we have the ability to care for and quarantine students if there was an outbreak. Many schools plan to open, some are going to stay online, most are waiting. A lot of uncertainty.
Many schools were already in financial trouble due to the shrinking population of students to go around. There's no way many of them can skip a semester of tuition, or even just room and board fees, and expect to survive. But if they bring students in and there's an outbreak (spoiler alert, there will be), that will destroy them finacially just as surely, but add resentment and regret to their final students' experience.
Closing a school has got to be a tough choice to make, but that's what a lot of not-well-known schools are facing. And some well known ones, too.
M tipping over
- Pdx
My oldest kid is a 2020 grad (HS). I feel bad for these kids. This virus has upended everything for them. Who knows if school will even be open for them this fall, much less if we'll even be able to have a basketball season. This has gotta be a tough time for transitions. Never been more grateful for my silly, boring, stable job. Man I hope we figure this thing out.
I just hope the football schedule isn't reduced to just conference games because of COVID. Going to be much tougher to have a winning record (5-4).
Interesting article from CBS Sports' Gary Parrish discussing whether some of the older college coaches (Coach K, Boeheim, Roy Williams) should take next season off if things don't improve with the pandemic by then: https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...ike-mike-krzyzewski-roy-williams-jim-boeheim/
In the B1G, the only 65+ coach is Izzo.
In the B1G, the only 65+ coach is Izzo.
Until there's a cure, vaccine, or highly effective treatment, it wont. It's not going to magically go away.
I’ll go on record now saying I’ll be shocked if more than two games are played this football season before everything gets shut down again (if it even gets started).
I still don’t think the common person understands how bad this virus is.
I still don’t think the common person understands how bad this virus is.
The virus stops when 83 to 95 percent of the the population has 1) had the disease and developed antibodies (herd immunity) and/or 2) been vaccinated. And that assumes that antibodies confer immunity for an extended period of time (unknown at this time) and the virus does not mutate (evidence already there are mutations, and expected)
On the one hand opening up the country and discontinuing preventative measures insures the more rapid development of "herd immunity" as more people are infected with the disease. Most will recover, a certain percentage will die.
Two doctors I talked to said they would be surprised if there was not another surge of outbreak when school starts and during the usual flu season.
Assuming that we return to pre-virus normalcy anytime in the near future seems pretty unrealistic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/...context=storylines_live_updates#link-4fc88fef
On the one hand opening up the country and discontinuing preventative measures insures the more rapid development of "herd immunity" as more people are infected with the disease. Most will recover, a certain percentage will die.
Two doctors I talked to said they would be surprised if there was not another surge of outbreak when school starts and during the usual flu season.
Assuming that we return to pre-virus normalcy anytime in the near future seems pretty unrealistic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/...context=storylines_live_updates#link-4fc88fef