Coronavirus Pandemic

#201      
Perhaps that was a poor word choice. I believe the number of positive tests reported on campuses are true. The reason I thought certain reports were “alarmist” is because quite a number of them impliedly or directly stated that hundreds (or thousands) of positive tests among students would likely lead to hospitalizations and deaths. That does not yet seem to have happened. I have yet to see a story about students or staff at Illinois, Alabama or other large universities being hospitalized. I hope it stays that way. If universities prove able to bring kids back on campus with only very small number (or none) suffering from significant illness that would be a very good thing. By “very small” I mean no more than would suffer from any of the other infectious diseases that students contract every single year. To be clear, I believe it is still WAY too early to know how this plays out on college campuses, or to ease current protective procedures, but I wonder if the dearth of bad news about hospitalizations SO FAR may be cause for cautious optimism.
 
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#202      
According to the Champaign-Urbana Public Health District website, the number of new confirmed cases in the county has severely declined (from 973 three weeks ago to 285 last week), and there are a total of four persons in the county hospitalized with Covid. No indication whether any of those four are University students or staff. The UI certainly is nowhere close to being out of the woods, but this is encouraging data. https://www.c-uphd.org/champaign-urbana-illinois-coronavirus-information.html
 
#203      
Houston, Texas
Check out https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?s=21 on Twitter. He used UIUC as a great example of widespread testing. Heres part of the tweet:

Mass testing can be pivotal in controlling outbreaks. U. Illinois is a great example, so far, of the use of very widescale testing to identify, contain and suppress outbreaks. One way to realistically do this for k-12 / nationally is to decentralize testing ex w rapid tests

if you look for him on twitter, you’ll see a U Washington prof tweeting about the media coverage of UIUC using these tests and how they were slammed for using them. Turns out it’s been quite successful.
 
#204      
Forgottonia
Check out https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?s=21 on Twitter. He used UIUC as a great example of widespread testing. Heres part of the tweet:

Mass testing can be pivotal in controlling outbreaks. U. Illinois is a great example, so far, of the use of very widescale testing to identify, contain and suppress outbreaks. One way to realistically do this for k-12 / nationally is to decentralize testing ex w rapid tests

if you look for him on twitter, you’ll see a U Washington prof tweeting about the media coverage of UIUC using these tests and how they were slammed for using them. Turns out it’s been quite successful.
News report this AM that the state of Illinois is looking at expanding the UI testing statewide if they can create the capacity. Primarily for use in schools.
 
#206      
Last week, the campus conducted approximately 10,000 tests per day, with a positivity rate on campus of 0.3%. 167 new infections. Only 2 people hospitalized in the entire county (unclear whether those two people are UI students or staff). Students have now been back seven weeks. While we'd all like the number of daily new cases to trend down towards zero, the lack of serious illness (i.e. hospitalizations) is encouraging, and I am starting to wonder why there is so little positive reporting about this.

https://splunk-public.machinedata.illinois.edu/en-US/app/uofi_shield_public_APP/home
https://www.c-uphd.org/champaign-urbana-illinois-coronavirus-information.html
 
#207      
Cary, IL
Last week, the campus conducted approximately 10,000 tests per day, with a positivity rate on campus of 0.3%. 167 new infections. Only 2 people hospitalized in the entire county (unclear whether those two people are UI students or staff). Students have now been back seven weeks. While we'd all like the number of daily new cases to trend down towards zero, the lack of serious illness (i.e. hospitalizations) is encouraging, and I am starting to wonder why there is so little positive reporting about this.

https://splunk-public.machinedata.illinois.edu/en-US/app/uofi_shield_public_APP/home
https://www.c-uphd.org/champaign-urbana-illinois-coronavirus-information.html
News doesn't like good news, only scare you to death news. All stations, even the ones that I watch. Bad news sells, good news gives hope and then people will be less invested in the news. Catch the headline and move on with life.
 
#208      
Cary, IL
News doesn't like good news, only scare you to death news. All stations, even the ones that I watch. Bad news sells, good news gives hope and then people will be less invested in the news. Catch the headline and move on with life.
PS, Sorry for my cynicism.
 
#209      
Sitting, wondering if by March there will be a widely enough available vaccine to allow a not minuscule amount of fans at tournament games.
 
#210      
Elephant in the room...am I wrong in still having some worry that the pandemic might once again ruin our season? I know sports are happening now, but COVID numbers are at a record high and seem to be rising exponentially. It may only be a matter of time before some states start imposing restrictions again. I hate to be that guy, but as an Illini fan I’m a little too used to getting screwed by things like this.
 
#211      
Springfiled, IL.
You might no see many games this year. Ohio ST had to drop out of the tournament in South Dakota because when they got back the had to quarantine for 14 days.
 
#212      
Elephant in the room...am I wrong in still having some worry that the pandemic might once again ruin our season? I know sports are happening now, but COVID numbers are at a record high and seem to be rising exponentially. It may only be a matter of time before some states start imposing restrictions again. I hate to be that guy, but as an Illini fan I’m a little too used to getting screwed by things like this.
You’re not alone. This Illini bball season is one of the few things I have to look forward to over the next 5 months. After how last season ended and how COVID is trending...can’t help but think it will happen all over again
 
#213      
Elephant in the room...am I wrong in still having some worry that the pandemic might once again ruin our season? I know sports are happening now, but COVID numbers are at a record high and seem to be rising exponentially. It may only be a matter of time before some states start imposing restrictions again. I hate to be that guy, but as an Illini fan I’m a little too used to getting screwed by things like this.
Anyone who isn't at least a little worried is just avoiding what's going on. Even external to the US, countries are still locking down (harder than we ever have here). Missing a week or two of the season really puts the entire thing at risk. As does setting up the tournament.

Not to mention Illinois' current state.
 
#214      
Covid19, I'm talking to you! If you love college hoops as much as we do, please take some time off from your natural instincts to invade our bodies. Please let this upcoming season play out. I beg you to allow our beloved Illini to get the opportunity to get on the court and demonstrate to the basketball world that the Illinois basketball program has returned to prominence. You can continue with your ravenous ways in April, or maybe just fade away all together. Just give us this season!!!
 
#218      
Forgottonia
Felt the same way. But if TBT could happen and Football has (largely) happened, I don’t see basketball being outrightly canceled.
We have had positives already. I wish we knew how many, but that does improve our chances with fewer susceptible guys. Trying to be optimistic....
 
#223      
Agreed. Surprised more of us aren’t talking about this. If Illinois issues another stay at home order (which seems likely), what happens to our sports?

Given the money in P5 college athletics, combined with the politicized nature of the pandemic & unwillingness of roughly half the country to follow what experts recommend, it seems to me that we're about where we'll wind up. I.e. limping along, with delays and cancellations. I'll appreciate every game we play this season. It seems likely more hospitals will reach capacity through the holidays, and more governors will try to talk some sense into citizens, which is demonstrably a lost cause. People have made up their minds about the relative danger, and aren't gonna budge much on behavior. If you're vulnerable, or come in contact with the vulnerable, good luck --you're not going to get much help from a large swath of the country.

My crystal ball isn't any better than yours, but I suspect Covid's going to go out with a bang before vaccination becomes common. That said, I have a hard time seeing this taking out the post season. Maybe I'm too optimistic on the vaccines, but there's a lot to be hopeful there.

I hope this free forecast was worth every penny, btw :)
 
#224      
Baja Ontario
As I (kinda) understand it, we look for 10-14 days after exposure for an illness spike and 10-14 days after illness spike for the ensuing mortality spike.. Pictures and videos I saw over the weekend showed crowds at airports in AZ, IL, and one other as travel kicked off and we can anticipate increased travel through next Monday. So travel and gatherings from 11/20 thru 11/30 followed by health facilities saturation 12/4 thru 12/14 followed by mortuary saturation 12/18 thru 12/28, roughly. This is in addition to the current massive increase in the illness spread. Also, as I understand it, there is no logistical plan for vaccine mfg and distribution at this time. Christmas and New Year's could be grim.
 
#225      
Houston, Texas
As I (kinda) understand it, we look for 10-14 days after exposure for an illness spike and 10-14 days after illness spike for the ensuing mortality spike.. Pictures and videos I saw over the weekend showed crowds at airports in AZ, IL, and one other as travel kicked off and we can anticipate increased travel through next Monday. So travel and gatherings from 11/20 thru 11/30 followed by health facilities saturation 12/4 thru 12/14 followed by mortuary saturation 12/18 thru 12/28, roughly. This is in addition to the current massive increase in the illness spread. Also, as I understand it, there is no logistical plan for vaccine mfg and distribution at this time. Christmas and New Year's could be grim.
I think it really depends on govt approval of emergency use. Don't remember which company I heard yesterday but if they get approval for emergency use in short order, they would have doses ready by Dec 11 and plenty of doses for the rest of American in Q1. I would assume that would mean in the next 7 days to get approval but they didn't say.

It kind of sounds like it's being done through the public sector/govt. City of Houston (where I live) has a plan to administer the vaccines. They are supposed to get an allotment (not sure how many). First responders/heath care workers get it first, those in high risk groups and those who don't have (easy) access to health care are next. The regular citizens will probably get a shot at the vaccine (pun very much intended!) in April.

So your assessment about the end of December is probably an accurate one. Then you'll see people traveling around Christmas and so mid-Jan is probably also going to be rough. I was planning on coming back to Illinois as I do every year to visit family and friends but probably NOT happening this year.
 
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