Cubs 2022 Season

#253      

KBLEE

Montgomery, IL
Contreras and Happ both listed in tonight's starting lineup. Less than a half hour to go before the trade deadline.
 
#254      
Huh...

blue-balls-lost-stare.gif
 
#255      
Neither Happ nor Contreras traded.

Happ is under contract for another year. So that’s not a surprise. Contreras could walk.

The baller move would be to announce an extension right now. Won’t happen. But at least they can make a show of it and then make a QO and get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

I have to assume the Cubs a relatively confident they’re going to re-sign Contreras though.
 
#256      
Color me surprised by the lack of moves today. Hard to tell which direction the team is headed. Some pieces are there to field a competitive team next year but it'll require big $ spent this offseason
 
#257      
They have time to figure out Happ. Keeping Contreras makes no objective sense. There is a zero% chance the QO compensation will be better than what they could have gotten.
If they want to keep him, they could have signed him in the off-season.
Missed opportunity.
 
#258      
They have time to figure out Happ. Keeping Contreras makes no objective sense. There is a zero% chance the QO compensation will be better than what they could have gotten.
If they want to keep him, they could have signed him in the off-season.
Missed opportunity.
A lot of people were upset they weren't extending him, which these few months gives you time to do. There would have been no reason to extend him until figuring out his market value. Their plan now should be extend -> Re-sign -> QO compensation. We don't know what we were offered on the open market for him, so who's to say if a post-first round draft pick isn't better than what they could have gotten this season.
 
#259      
A lot of people were upset they weren't extending him, which these few months gives you time to do. There would have been no reason to extend him until figuring out his market value. Their plan now should be extend -> Re-sign -> QO compensation. We don't know what we were offered on the open market for him, so who's to say if a post-first round draft pick isn't better than what they could have gotten this season.
Christian Vázquez is sort of a less extreme version of Contreras - not as much a plus on offense, not as much of a minus on defense, one year older, also a free agent at the end of the year.

Boston got Houston’s 12th and 26th best prospects for Vazquez. I think it’s safe to say that the Cubs would have gotten a little more for Contreras, but I’m not sure it would have been that much more.

I can certainly see Jed’s reasoning being, “If that’s what the rest of baseball thinks off Contreras, we’ll just re-sign him.” Not sure why there’d be any more demand for him in free agency with a QO attached to him.

In terms of comps for a Contreras extension, Yasmani Grandal got 4 years and $73mm from the White Sox. He was the same age as Willson, basically identical offensively and perhaps somewhat worse as a defender. I think the perception in year 3 of that contract is that was an overpay.
 
#260      
Christian Vázquez is sort of a less extreme version of Contreras - not as much a plus on offense, not as much of a minus on defense, one year older, also a free agent at the end of the year.

Boston got Houston’s 12th and 26th best prospects for Vazquez. I think it’s safe to say that the Cubs would have gotten a little more for Contreras, but I’m not sure it would have been that much more.

I can certainly see Jed’s reasoning being, “If that’s what the rest of baseball thinks off Contreras, we’ll just re-sign him.” Not sure why there’d be any more demand for him in free agency with a QO attached to him.

In terms of comps for a Contreras extension, Yasmani Grandal got 4 years and $73mm from the White Sox. He was the same age as Willson, basically identical offensively and perhaps somewhat worse as a defender. I think the perception in year 3 of that contract is that was an overpay.
Those two prospects slot into 28 and 29 in the Red Sox system. I'll take the 31st pick any day of the week. Grandal at the time of signing with the White Sox was undoubtedly the best catcher in baseball, Willson is not, the White Sox breaking him doesn't change that.
 
#265      
Since May 6 the Reds are 41-41 and the Cubs are 34-49.

The Cubs are 14th in MLB payroll, the Reds are 22nd. Approx $36mm difference.
A 36 million difference seems pretty steep until you consider that's 7 million less than the Mets are paying Max Scherzer this season.

The Angels are paying 2 guys over 35M each. One of whom has played in 8 games in the last 3 seasons (Strausberg)...and the other has played about a season worth of baseball in the last 3. (Rendon)

It's not about how much you spend, its about how you spend it.
 
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#266      
A 36 million difference seems pretty steep until you consider that's 7 million less than the Mets are paying Max Scherzer this season.

The Angels are paying 2 guys over 35M each. One of whom has played in 8 games in the last 3 seasons (Strausberg)...and the other has played about a season worth of baseball in the last 3. (Rendon)

It's not about how much you spend, its about how you spend it.
I’m an idiot… Strasberg obviously not an angel…
But the Nats do pay him and Corbin a combined 58 million to not play, or have fans wishing they didn’t.
Angels other 35 million dollar guy is pretty good.
 
#267      
Ding dong the witch is dead. Cubs announce that Heyward won’t return from the IL this year and won’t play for the Cubs next year. This writing has been on the wall since the Suzuki signing. Still to be determined if they do some sort of buyout or just release him.

It’s too bad it went this way for him. Heyward seems like a great guy. I’d absolutely buy him a beer if I ever ran into him. I’m still convinced he played through a wrist injury during 2016 because Schwarber and Soler were also hurt. He was a perfectly fine starting quality player, albeit overpaid, from 17-20, and then these last 2 years have been completely miserable.

Frankly, you kind of expect the back end of these long contracts to go like this. It’s just that the Cubs got no surplus value during the front end of the contract to make it worthwhile. (The counter example was Jon Lester, whose performance arc over his contract went as expected.)

I’ll be curious if someone picks him up next year. Although, Heyward seems to have a lot of non-baseball stuff going on in the community and wouldn’t be surprised if he moved on to the next phase of his life. I wish him luck either way.
 
#268      
How awful was the off-season for Hoyer?

Starting CF for the season released.
Starting 2B hurt all year and ineffective when healthy.
Starting 1B demoted and only drought back because no one else is available to play the position.
Frazier, Villar and Simmons all released before the end of the season.
Mikey and Smyly both hurt and not able to be flipped.
 
#269      
How awful was the off-season for Hoyer?

Starting CF for the season released.
Starting 2B hurt all year and ineffective when healthy.
Starting 1B demoted and only drought back because no one else is available to play the position.
Frazier, Villar and Simmons all released before the end of the season.
Mikey and Smyly both hurt and not able to be flipped.
Honest question, why is the new GM, whatever the name is, getting no heat on this? Never hear him mentioned in this mess.
 
#270      
Honest question, why is the new GM, whatever the name is, getting no heat on this? Never hear him mentioned in this mess.
Carter (not Coleman) Hawkins.

He’s not the guy in charge. Like Hoyer when Epstein was the boss, he wasn’t the one making personnel decisions. My impression is that he deals a lot more with the development side of things, but the Cubs are pretty vague about exactly what his duties are.
 
#272      
How awful was the off-season for Hoyer?

Starting CF for the season released.
Starting 2B hurt all year and ineffective when healthy.
Starting 1B demoted and only drought back because no one else is available to play the position.
Frazier, Villar and Simmons all released before the end of the season.
Mikey and Smyly both hurt and not able to be flipped.
Wasn't Heyward the starting CF, after the acquisition of Suzuki? With Happ in left, the OF was pretty well decided. I'd hang that one on Epstein.
Madrigal had never hit below .300 at any level before this season. If he can get his legs right, he can be a very good player down the line. he's looked a little better the last week or so.
Frank hit .345 in an extended tryout last season. Can you imagine what fans would have said if they replaced him before the season?

Miley and Smyly have pitched very well … when they have pitched. Wade was a legit #3 last season. We picked him up on waivers. Seemed like a no brainer at the time.

Frazier, Villar, and Simmons were never long term solutions for the Cubs. Not much investment in any of them. Once we fell out of contention, there was no reason for them to be here. The kids need to play.

Most of these moves made sense when they were made. Injuries aren't easy to predict. Much of this is about luck, which has been in short supply post 2016.
 
#273      
Honest question, why is the new GM, whatever the name is, getting no heat on this? Never hear him mentioned in this mess.
It's generally considered that the payroll reduction was forced on Hoyer by ownership, and the looming reality of what that would mean was why Theo quit.

The situation actually looks quite a bit better than it did on Opening Day though. If the Cubs are willing to spend this offseason they could find themselves right back in the mix in a new MLB where the bar to the postseason is very low.