Dan
Game Thread: Illinois vs Northwestern
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Illini_1979
- Oregon
77-68 good guys.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Regarding the luck conversation in the previous thread.
If I'm a coach/player, luck doesn't exist. My mentality is I create my own luck. Like someone else mentioned, I play so well that even a few unlucky bounces don't cause me to lose.
From an objective analyst perspective, luck absolutely plays a role in the game. There are small lucky & unlucky bounces each game that directly impact the outcome of the game.
Over the course of a season, I imagine luck tends to even out. You catch a bad call in one game, the next game the refs give you a call. But even the outcome of a season can be impacted by luck.
Northwestern is currently 42 in KenPom. The analytics say they should have more losses than they do. Yet here we are. Call that luck, call that skill, it is what it is.
If I'm a coach/player, luck doesn't exist. My mentality is I create my own luck. Like someone else mentioned, I play so well that even a few unlucky bounces don't cause me to lose.
From an objective analyst perspective, luck absolutely plays a role in the game. There are small lucky & unlucky bounces each game that directly impact the outcome of the game.
Over the course of a season, I imagine luck tends to even out. You catch a bad call in one game, the next game the refs give you a call. But even the outcome of a season can be impacted by luck.
Northwestern is currently 42 in KenPom. The analytics say they should have more losses than they do. Yet here we are. Call that luck, call that skill, it is what it is.
I L L
ILLINI IN NE
- Omaha,Ne.
the national
- the Front Range
Gotta protect this court
I was that that game. Same with football. RIP
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Agree 100%. And I take it a step further and say the same thing is true when it comes to the referees. Everything evens out over the course of 35-40 games.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Nice seats!
It’s gonna be RJ’s night!
I have a feeling that guy is going to be a regular around here.
Little close for comfort...
In poker there is a term called variance to describe how a player goes through ups and downs but achieves an overall positive or negative return. It supposes that luck will cut both ways. That term can be used in basketball. Over the course of a season, luck plays a small role in the overall record, but in a single game luck does play a role.
A great team plays well enough that they take luck out of the equation most nights. For more evenly matched opponents, luck will play a much larger role.
The moral is play well enough that luck and the incompetent refs can't affect the outcome.
Regarding the luck conversation in the previous thread.
Medal of honor winner Jack Ingram jumps as high as he has ever jumped before And the inbounds pass is just a shade too weak.
He also played a key role in what's simply become known as "The Comeback," the thrilling Elite Eight overtime victory over Arizona. Trailing by 15 points with under four minutes to go, the Fighting Illini staged a furious comeback to pull within three with under a minute to play. The Wildcats had possession and were primed to run some clock, but Ingram managed a tip on an inbound play, leading to a steal by Luther Head and game-tying three-pointer by Deron Williams.
fightingillini.com
Medal of honor winner Jack Ingram jumps as high as he has ever jumped before And the inbounds pass is just a shade too weak.
He also played a key role in what's simply become known as "The Comeback," the thrilling Elite Eight overtime victory over Arizona. Trailing by 15 points with under four minutes to go, the Fighting Illini staged a furious comeback to pull within three with under a minute to play. The Wildcats had possession and were primed to run some clock, but Ingram managed a tip on an inbound play, leading to a steal by Luther Head and game-tying three-pointer by Deron Williams.
#TBT Big Ten Medal of Honor - Jack Ingram 2005 - University of Illinois Athletics
April 24, 2014 By Lexi Shurilla, fightingillini.com staff writer | @SusanAlexisS Illinois Big Ten Medal of Honor Winners One of the most prestigious conference
fightingillini.com
the national
- the Front Range
He may already be a regular for all we know. Either way, he makes a perfect GIF.
I mean, I don't think that's true. You've only got a very small handful of games that you can say were within reach of being tipped by the officiating. If you happen to be on the wrong end of a couple of those, it has a huge impact on your season. So even if 35 games is enough to even out all of the calls in the aggregate, it's not enough to even out their impact on your season.
Probably the only thing we're going to agree on at this point is that I should shut up, so I will (after this one last point). My main issue with how people treat luck is when they assume the result of a game is 100% signal, 0% noise with respect to who is the better team or who played better on that night or who deserved to win and then make that into some issue with the character of the losing or winning team. That's just a miserable way of looking at the world, and even if you're a player on the court it's not productive. You can't deny what the outcome of a game is, but you can absolutely have a decent attitude around what that means about the people involved. I have a bad attitude about these things a lot, and I hate looking in the mirror after the dust settles, so you can imagine that I'm not too keen on hearing similar opinions about it all.
Anyway. I think we win going away, and I think a bunch of people will wind up using that to confirm prior assumptions about Northwestern actually being bad as a result. (That'll be a lot easier to absorb than if we lose and the same conclusions are drawn about Illinois.)
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