Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#26      
HoopsterMan
NarrowJ said:
I think Blackwell was better statistically if all you care about is PPG. David averaged more assists and 3 more rebs while playing nearly 5 mins less per game. I've noticed you're pretty casual about things like this as you also wanted to cling to this "Kentucky with 11ppg scorers" while ignoring actually what matters: how good the players are. You also can’t just conveniently block out the vast difference in team success like you’re trying so hard to do either: it matters.

I’ll take the team that returns every player except the weak link (Lee) over the team figuring out how to replace 70% of its production with a good-but-certainly-not-great group of returners, a transfer class ranked outside the top 10, and 6 freshmen.
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He had a very similar overall efficiency rating to Boswell, on both sides of the floor.
RollChief said:
I hate to bet against Izzo but I’m really not sold on MSU. There front court is so good but I’m not sold on Bonke and Ethan Taylor didn’t look good at all in the U18 tournament. It seems like they have a very big question mark in their front court
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MSU will be what they are every year, very good, but not great. If ever the year for MSU to open up the wallet and bring in a top center.

In a wide open year, it does feel like this may be one of Izzo's last chances to get to another Final 4 with Fears the consensus preseason player of the year. I do lie that they're rolling back two iconic players for that program in Fears and Carr.
 
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#27      
EmpoweredIllini
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Statistically, Blackwell was the better player (pretty clearly).

Wisconsin wasn't a "blah team." They had a top 10 offense. They had the best collection of wins in the country (including 2-0 against Illinois).

Boyd & Blackwell was the best Big Ten backcourt in the last decade.

Timing matters.

Latest Wasserman article had Howard at 10 and Ngomba at 13:


Latest ESPN article had Williams at 10:


You said Duke won't have anyone in the top 13. I think its very likely one of them ends up there.

Right, but of the top 10 rotation, only 4 are freshman. That's good enough for it to not be a problem.

Callipari's last KY team had 8 of the 10 who were freshman.

Higher floor and higher ceiling. Duke is better offensively, better defensively, has more depth and talent (which is essentially all we judge in the preseason).

Florida has no business being ahead of them. But they will be because they're the more "likeable" brand and Duke is the monopoly / blueblood. It's more "fun" to have them at #1. Kind of like the NBA mvp award when a guy wins it multiple times in a row.
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boyd and blackwell as best b1g backcourt in last 10 years?

just off the top of my head illinois had a couple guys (tsj & domask) who were both 1st team all conf and went to an elite 8... blackwell and boyd played on a 24-11 team bounced by high point and neither of them made 1st team

best b1g backcourt in 10 years sheesh haha
 
#28      
Fly Illini Fly!
A little more thought on this Kenpom article:
substack.com

Michigan's defense was one of the best ever

Or since 1997, anyway
substack.com substack.com
IMG_1508.jpeg


It sounds like he’s subtracting the D1 points per possession from the team adjusted rating. Not dividing it like I originally thought.

So that +21.7 on Illinois, or +22.3 on Purdue — it isn’t the ratio better than the national average. It’s the difference from the national average.

To show the work:

Torvik has the D1 average for points per possession listed at 109.3 (which should be the same for Kenpom).

1. Purdue: 131.6 - 109.3 = +22.3
2. Illinois: 131.1 - 109.3 = +21.8 (0.1 difference, most certainly due to rounding)
3. Alabama: 129.7 - 109.3 = +20.4
4. Michigan: 128.2 - 109.3= +18.9
5. Arizona: 128.1 - 109.3 = +18.8
6. Duke: 128.1 - 109.3 = +18.8
7. Arkansas: 127.9 - 109.3 = +18.6
8. Vanderbilt: 127.1 - 109.3 = +17.8
9. Florida: 126.0 - 109.3 = +16.7
10. Wisconsin: 125.2 - 109.3 = +15.9

.....

If we were to use % better than the national average (ratio method), I don't think Michigan would be #1 here.

IMG_1524.jpeg


2026 Michigan adj. defense was 88.5. D1 average was 109.3.

Difference: -20.8
% better than average: -19.0%

2019 Texas Tech adj. defense was 84.1. D1 average was 104.4.

Difference: -20.3
% better than average: -19.4%

.....

Whatever method you use, I think Duke is going to be #1 with the offense:

IMG_1523.jpeg


Kenpom states, "But sure, you could measure the best teams against the 100th best team or the 50th best team, or something else, and get different answers. (Well, not for the best offense. It will always be ‘99 Duke unless you are doing something weird.)"

......

IMO, the most interesting stat: there's only been 3 defenses that were 20pts or better than the national average. Yet, Kenpom says there's been 25 offenses that were 20pts or better.

And based on my calculations, there's been ZERO defenses that were 20% better than the national average. But there's been several offenses that were (i.e. Purdue last year was 131.6 / 109.3 = 20.4%).

"Offense has more control of the game than the defense."
 
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#29      
Illiniguy13
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Statistically, Blackwell was the better player (pretty clearly).

Wisconsin wasn't a "blah team." They had a top 10 offense. They had the best collection of wins in the country (including 2-0 against Illinois).

Boyd & Blackwell was the best Big Ten backcourt in the last decade.

Timing matters.

Latest Wasserman article had Howard at 10 and Ngomba at 13:


Latest ESPN article had Williams at 10:


You said Duke won't have anyone in the top 13. I think its very likely one of them ends up there.

Right, but of the top 10 rotation, only 4 are freshman. That's good enough for it to not be a problem.

Callipari's last KY team had 8 of the 10 who were freshman.

Higher floor and higher ceiling. Duke is better offensively, better defensively, has more depth and talent (which is essentially all we judge in the preseason).

Florida has no business being ahead of them. But they will be because they're the more "likeable" brand and Duke is the monopoly / blueblood. It's more "fun" to have them at #1. Kind of like the NBA mvp award when a guy wins it multiple times in a row.
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Cap Liar GIF by TEJI

Oh stop that
 
#30      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
Fly Illini Fly! said:
A little more thought on this Kenpom article:
substack.com

Michigan's defense was one of the best ever

Or since 1997, anyway
substack.com substack.com
View attachment 51408

It sounds like he’s subtracting the D1 points per possession from the team adjusted rating. Not dividing it like I originally thought.

So that +21.7 on Illinois, or +22.3 on Purdue — it isn’t the ratio better than the national average. It’s the difference from the national average.

To show the work:

Torvik has the D1 average for points per possession listed at 109.3 (which should be the same for Kenpom).

1. Purdue: 131.6 - 109.3 = +22.3
2. Illinois: 131.1 - 109.3 = +21.8 (0.1 difference, most certainly due to rounding)
3. Alabama: 129.7 - 109.3 = +20.4
4. Michigan: 128.2 - 109.3= +18.9
5. Arizona: 128.1 - 109.3 = +18.8
6. Duke: 128.1 - 109.3 = +18.8
7. Arkansas: 127.9 - 109.3 = +18.6
8. Vanderbilt: 127.1 - 109.3 = +17.8
9. Florida: 126.0 - 109.3 = +16.7
10. Wisconsin: 125.2 - 109.3 = +15.9

.....

If we were to use % better than the national average (ratio method), I don't think Michigan would be #1 here.

View attachment 51410

2026 Michigan adj. defense was 88.5. D1 average was 109.3.

Difference: -20.8
% better than average: -19.0%

2019 Texas Tech adj. defense was 84.1. D1 average was 104.4.

Difference: -20.3
% better than average: -19.4%

.....

Whatever method you use, I think Duke is going to be #1 with the offense:

View attachment 51411

Kenpom states, "But sure, you could measure the best teams against the 100th best team or the 50th best team, or something else, and get different answers. (Well, not for the best offense. It will always be ‘99 Duke unless you are doing something weird.)"

......

IMO, the most interesting stat: there's only been 3 defenses that were 20pts or better than the national average. Yet, Kenpom says there's been 25 offenses that were 20pts or better.

And based on my calculations, there's been ZERO defenses that were 20% better than the national average. But there's been several offenses that were (i.e. Purdue last year was 131.6 / 109.3 = 20.4%).

"Offense has more control of the game than the defense."
Click to expand...
Calculating Figure It Out GIF
 
#31      
Fly Illini Fly!
HoopsterMan said:
In a wide open year, it does feel like this may be one of Izzo's last chances to get to another Final 4 with Fears the consensus preseason player of the year. I do lie that they're rolling back two iconic players for that program in Fears and Carr.
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I don’t think Fears is the consensus preseason NPOY.

Norlander and Parish did their annual tradition of asking 100 D1 coaches the same questions.

The votes were strongly in favor of Haugh at FLA:

IMG_1525.jpeg
 
#33      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I don’t think Fears is the consensus preseason NPOY.

Norlander and Parish did their annual tradition of asking 100 D1 coaches the same questions.

The votes were strongly in favor of Haugh at FLA:

View attachment 51413
Click to expand...
For me it's Fears and it's not close.

He's way more impactful in terms of dictating the game from the PG position.
 
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#34      
RollChief
Fly Illini Fly! said:
A little more thought on this Kenpom article:
substack.com

Michigan's defense was one of the best ever

Or since 1997, anyway
substack.com substack.com
View attachment 51408

It sounds like he’s subtracting the D1 points per possession from the team adjusted rating. Not dividing it like I originally thought.

So that +21.7 on Illinois, or +22.3 on Purdue — it isn’t the ratio better than the national average. It’s the difference from the national average.

To show the work:

Torvik has the D1 average for points per possession listed at 109.3 (which should be the same for Kenpom).

1. Purdue: 131.6 - 109.3 = +22.3
2. Illinois: 131.1 - 109.3 = +21.8 (0.1 difference, most certainly due to rounding)
3. Alabama: 129.7 - 109.3 = +20.4
4. Michigan: 128.2 - 109.3= +18.9
5. Arizona: 128.1 - 109.3 = +18.8
6. Duke: 128.1 - 109.3 = +18.8
7. Arkansas: 127.9 - 109.3 = +18.6
8. Vanderbilt: 127.1 - 109.3 = +17.8
9. Florida: 126.0 - 109.3 = +16.7
10. Wisconsin: 125.2 - 109.3 = +15.9

.....

If we were to use % better than the national average (ratio method), I don't think Michigan would be #1 here.

View attachment 51410

2026 Michigan adj. defense was 88.5. D1 average was 109.3.

Difference: -20.8
% better than average: -19.0%

2019 Texas Tech adj. defense was 84.1. D1 average was 104.4.

Difference: -20.3
% better than average: -19.4%

.....

Whatever method you use, I think Duke is going to be #1 with the offense:

View attachment 51411

Kenpom states, "But sure, you could measure the best teams against the 100th best team or the 50th best team, or something else, and get different answers. (Well, not for the best offense. It will always be ‘99 Duke unless you are doing something weird.)"

......

IMO, the most interesting stat: there's only been 3 defenses that were 20pts or better than the national average. Yet, Kenpom says there's been 25 offenses that were 20pts or better.

And based on my calculations, there's been ZERO defenses that were 20% better than the national average. But there's been several offenses that were (i.e. Purdue last year was 131.6 / 109.3 = 20.4%).

"Offense has more control of the game than the defense."
Click to expand...
I would highly suggest paying for KenPom if you don't already... It seems like every year it's worth my $20 or whatever it is per year; there are so many interesting things to dig into, and the way the stats are presented feels more tangible and approachable than Torvik (with that said, Torvik is a super good preseason reference).
 
#35      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
NarrowJ said:
I’ll take the team that returns every player except the weak link (Lee) over the team figuring out how to replace 70% of its production with a good-but-certainly-not-great group of returners, a transfer class ranked outside the top 10, and 6 freshmen.
Click to expand...
It'd be great if this were true, though it isn't.

We're losing a top 5 pick and one of the best players in program history.
 
#36      
Fly Illini Fly!
RollChief said:
I would highly suggest paying for KenPom if you don't already... It seems like every year it's worth my $20 or whatever it is per year; there are so many interesting things to dig into, and the way the stats are presented feels more tangible and approachable than Torvik (with that said, Torvik is a super good preseason reference).
Click to expand...
I am dirt poor, and barely get by on rent lol.
 
#38      
NarrowJ
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
It'd be great if this were true, though it isn't.

We're losing a top 5 pick and one of the best players in program history.
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The discussion is about Florida and Duke.

Florida loses only Xaivian Lee.

But I can see how we'd think I was possibly talking about Brandon Lee / Illinois.
 
#39      
Illiniguy13
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Which backcourt do you think is better? (Big Ten; last 10 years)

One averaged 20.7. The other averaged 19.1.

They were elite.
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Again with the PPG being the holy metric. I'll keep this strictly to Illinois - How about Terrence Shannon & Domask being two first-team All big ten guys? Would you really take Boyd & Blackwell over Ayo & Frazier? If so, that's crackers
 
#43      
EmeraldCityIllini
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I don’t think Fears is the consensus preseason NPOY.

Norlander and Parish did their annual tradition of asking 100 D1 coaches the same questions.

The votes were strongly in favor of Haugh at FLA:

View attachment 51413
Click to expand...

Fears probably has a better chance to win cause the counting stats - but as someone who watched both teams play a s*** ton - there are levels to this.

It’s Haugh.
 
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#44      
HoopsterMan
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Fears probably has a better chance to win cause the counting stats - but as someone who watched both teams play a s*** ton - there are levels to this.

It’s Haugh.
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I'll take Fears as well. It's a guards sport. Unless they were using Haugh in a Flagg type of role, point forward do it all, I don't think he impacts the game nearly as much.

These are cool polls. Here is the latest, confirms some of the more recent discussion.

www.cbssports.com

Candid Coaches: Who is the best college basketball team of the 21st century?

So many great teams, but coaches could only vote for one. A very close race brought about five who stood above the rest
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
 
#46      
EmeraldCityIllini
HoopsterMan said:
I'll take Fears as well. It's a guards sport. Unless they were using Haugh in a Flagg type of role, point forward do it all, I don't think he impacts the game nearly as much.

These are cool polls. Here is the latest, confirms some of the more recent discussion.

www.cbssports.com

Candid Coaches: Who is the best college basketball team of the 21st century?

So many great teams, but coaches could only vote for one. A very close race brought about five who stood above the rest
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
Click to expand...

It’s kind of an “everyone needs to be good” sport now.

I don’t think it’s still “you need good guards to win” or “you need good bigs” - you need awesome both.

For every Elliot Cadeau, Tristan Newton, Braden Smith, or Walter Clayton example you can just as easily say they had Mara/Morez/Yaxel or Clingan/Sanogo or Haugh/Condon or Zach Edey
 
#47      
lstewart53x3
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Boyd & Blackwell was the best Big Ten backcourt in the last decade.
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What!? They weren’t even the best backcourt in the B1G last year.

Using Torvik BPM which accounts for both offense and defense:

Illinois —

Wagler: 11.0
Boswell: 5.8

Total: 16.8

Purdue —

Smith: 8.8
Loyer: 8.1

Total: 18.9

Nebraska —

Sandfort: 10.5
Hoiberg: 8.1

Total: 18.6

Ohio St —

Thornton: 11.6
Mobley Jr: 5.5

Total: 17.1

Wisconsin —

Boyd: 8.5
Blackwell: 6.7

Total: 15.2
 
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#48      
HoopsterMan
EmeraldCityIllini said:
It’s kind of an “everyone needs to be good” sport now.

I don’t think it’s still “you need good guards to win” or “you need good bigs” - you need awesome both.

For every Elliot Cadeau, Tristan Newton, Braden Smith, or Walter Clayton example you can just as easily say they had Mara/Morez/Yaxel or Clingan/Sanogo or Haugh/Condon or Zach Edey
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I see it a bit differently, both on recent and historical data, when it counts.

As shared previously, 10 of the last 18 tournament MOP's have been PG's, including the last three. Of the other 8, 4 were shooting guards.

Great front courts keep your floor high, great guards elevate your ceiling. This is why I feel Duke's last two super talented teams flopped - their guards weren't great.

A lot hinges on Vaaks and Coleman becoming special to win this year.
 
#49      
March2TheArch

He’s going to get much, much easier looks. This is hyper exciting. He’s going to have so much gravity which will open up lanes for Quentin and Dre. It’s going to be a pick your poison defending us.

If not for Mirk’s injury, I would have been very confident that we could beat everybody but Duke in the non-conference. @ Duke when they’re the #1/2 team in the country is just a win-win scenario. A win is worth a seed line. A loss doesn’t hurt you one bit so long as we’re not blown out.
 
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