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Illinois 105, Minnesota 97 Postgame
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<blockquote data-quote="danielb927" data-source="post: 2025167" data-attributes="member: 3372"><p>I'm surprised Pomeroy hasn't changed that formula, since he had a long article showing that offensive efficiency had about 2/3 of the control over scoring. Maybe it's baked in somewhere with the calculation of AdjOE and AdjDE (versus raw OE and DE). But if not, a more accurate measure of strength against an average D-I team would weight the offense more heavily. Something like:</p><p></p><p>(2*AdjOE + D1avg(AdjOE)) / 3 </p><p>-</p><p>( AdjDE + 2*D1avg(AdjDE)) / 3</p><p></p><p>would seem more appropriate. </p><p></p><p>Actually, let's just check out what that gives. Math is easy in Excel.</p><p></p><p>I give you, the "Adjusted Adjusted Efficiency Margin" Rankings. The first 4 columns are KenPom #s. The 3rd from right is the new formula, with rankings next to it - and the last column is the difference between the new ranking and KenPom. I didn't subtract the EM numbers because I'm not sure they really represent the same thing...</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]31619[/ATTACH]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="danielb927, post: 2025167, member: 3372"] I'm surprised Pomeroy hasn't changed that formula, since he had a long article showing that offensive efficiency had about 2/3 of the control over scoring. Maybe it's baked in somewhere with the calculation of AdjOE and AdjDE (versus raw OE and DE). But if not, a more accurate measure of strength against an average D-I team would weight the offense more heavily. Something like: (2*AdjOE + D1avg(AdjOE)) / 3 - ( AdjDE + 2*D1avg(AdjDE)) / 3 would seem more appropriate. Actually, let's just check out what that gives. Math is easy in Excel. I give you, the "Adjusted Adjusted Efficiency Margin" Rankings. The first 4 columns are KenPom #s. The 3rd from right is the new formula, with rankings next to it - and the last column is the difference between the new ranking and KenPom. I didn't subtract the EM numbers because I'm not sure they really represent the same thing... [ATTACH type="full"]31619[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]
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