Illinois 69, Ohio State 60 Postgame

the national · Jan 25, 2023

grue2 said:
The NET rewards running up the score (there may be a cap). BU tends to slow things down at the end or he gives the bench players court time. His methods are good for team cohesion. They will likely impact our seeding by a line or two a bit over the years. For example, if we had maintained the 15pt lead, instead of eating the clock and taking a 9pt win, we would be 2 positions higher on KP today.

On the other end, the NET doesn't give much credit for beating up cupcakes. We had 6 games against absolutely terrible teams.

I think those 6 games are what is weighing us down in the Net. It much we can do about it except build a better schedule in the future. Overall, I’m not too worried about it. Wins against quad 1 teams are more important (IMO)

Bbuck21 · Jan 25, 2023

Mistakenj said:

Hit my pair of 8's!

Iloveorangekoolaid · Jan 25, 2023

Celebrating the win in a new way, unfortunately mine were not free.

BRucks · Jan 25, 2023

GallopingGhost said:
I was gonna say, it seemed like RJ defense made a huge difference in this game, particularly in the 1st half. He , Sencire, and Rogers take the defensive intensity up 12 notched when they are in. And it helps the team magnificently.

Shooting was bad tonight but most everything else was great. Coleman had a fantastic game- NBA worthy. His defense and skill set will get him a contract one day.

ILL!

Are you two kin?

Bbuck21 · Jan 25, 2023

rtbritt said:
My wife asked why Underwood told them to take the turnover....I explained a little....then announcer says something about first time Illinois has beaten OSU by double digits at home (maybe under BU or something along those lines)....

Wife asks why doesn't Illinois just take a shot instead of the turnover (she thinks it's dumb). I tell her it's more of a respect thing ..."we know we won, so we won't pile on". BUT THEN I told her I agree it is kind of dumb, because the other team is going to for sure take a shot to try and get their points and make the loss closer. and BOOM, it happens and its now only a 9 point win (which in the end, I think it means nothing to the Illini.)

I love it when I get questions like that. That means my wife was paying attention. Which is a bit of a rarity.

RML · Jan 25, 2023

danielb927 said:
In your example, yes, a 10-point OT win would almost certainly be considered quite a bit better than a one point regulation win.

Most of the systems out there* are based on three numbers per game:
- Points scored
- Points allowed
- Total # of possessions

Nothing special is done for OT, but an OT game will (usually) have more possessions, so it does still factor in.

For example, in our game against Texas there were 80 total possessions: 70 in regulation and 10 more in OT. We scored 85 and allowed 78 points on 80 possessions, which amounts to 1.06 pts/poss. scored and 0.97 pts/poss. allowed. If you adjust to the # of possessions in regulation, you get a final score of 74-68. So in other words, our 7-point OT win was roughly equivalent to a 6-point regulation win.

*as far as I know

Thanks. That's dumb on their part, isn't it? In my book, a team that takes you to overtime made a better showing than a team that you beat in regulation. Regardless of the final score.

(To me, overtime is essentially a tiebreaker, not an after-the-fact decision that the originally scheduled 40-minute game will instead be played for a longer-than-normal duration. )

Battle89 · Jan 25, 2023

OrangeLife said:
Well, to be fair, he attended UNC. I assume he is likely illiterate.

I've translated your opening phrase into the Carolinian language, just in case he reads this site.

BRucks · Jan 25, 2023

NASchamp said:
While we’re talking about heights…at one point during the broadcast they showed the Illini bench and Perrin looked an inch or two taller than Lieb. Maybe the conversion of his height from cm to in was off

Hair.

Captain 14 · Jan 25, 2023

I'm sure this was brought up in the game thread but the PBP announcer's constant references to the "Fightin'" Illini was annoying. Maybe Robbie could have leaned over in the first break but that's a bit awkward. I mean it's ESPN! Oh, wait... Maybe I'm too nitpicky but announcers should be better briefed (or at least have a producer in their ear).

danielb927 · Jan 25, 2023

RML said:
Thanks. That's dumb on their part, isn't it? In my book, a team that takes you to overtime made a better showing than a team that you beat in regulation. Regardless of the final score.

(To me, overtime is essentially a tiebreaker, not an after-the-fact decision that the originally scheduled 40-minute game will instead be played for a longer-than-normal duration. )

Totally depends on your perspective.

From the point of view of a team trying to win a game - absolutely agree. If you can't win in regulation, the next best thing is to tie and force OT. If I'm a losing coach, I'm probably happier if my team at least sent the game to OT.

From the point of view of trying to decide how good a team is - different story. Why should I care why the teams are playing 5 extra minutes? All those extra minutes give me are extra data points. If I decide a 1-point regulation win is worth more than a 10-point OT win, I'm implicitly deciding that OT "means less".

But why should it mean less? If you believe in "clutchness", wouldn't it mean even more? And why stop at OT - should the last 5:00 of the game be treated differently too? If a team loses by 2, did they play better if they had the game tied with 5:00 to go and let it slip away, or if they were down 10 and clawed almost all the way back?

Most systems (as far as I know) don't try to answer this - except for "garbage time", they treat the first and last possession of the game as data points with equal importance. I'm not saying that's necessarily the best way, but I don't know that anyone has a system so far that can quantify "importance of a possession" in a way that adds to the predictive power of the system.

STATS GUY · Jan 25, 2023

FloridaMan said:
Agree to disagree for our team this year. We are 8th in the conference in 3 pt % yet we've taken the second most after Penn St. Penn St shoots them at a 39% clip to our 32%. We are shooting 55% on 2 pt fg's, second in the league to Indiana's 56%.

So which do we want on the next 100 shots? 32% from 3 or 55% from 2. I do not see this as a simple math formula. What about fouls? What about Inside/Outside? Long Rebounds? Do they tend to go to the shooting team?

FloridaMan · Jan 25, 2023

STATS GUY said:
So which do we want on the next 100 shots? 32% from 3 or 55% from 2. I do not see this as a simple math formula. What about fouls? What about Inside/Outside? Long Rebounds? Do they tend to go to the shooting team?

I would take consistent effort, player movement, ball movement, overall aggression on the offensive end to match our defensive effort for a full 35-40 minutes - like they played during most of the second half last night. They do that, the shots will certainly take care of themselves. What I do not want is 5 guys standing around the three point line, not moving, being tentative, then being forced into a poor three point shot that several times in the past few weeks has resulted in an air ball.

I don't think it's a radical idea. Surely you could see the clear difference between early first half and the second half last night?

DJM · Jan 25, 2023

only time a meaningless three matters is when you're in Vegas standing in the sportsbook.

ChiefIllinois said:
It was a textbook bush league play. I doubt underwood or the team really cares (frankly they shouldn’t and nor should we), but IMO it was very unsportsm

chudaman said:
It was a basketball play which is textbook non-bush. I doubt that OSU cares but IMO it is unsportsmanlike to not take a shot at the end as everyone understands going in that the game lasts 40 minutes, so i will agree to disagree with you on t

and you have no idea how many times I've screamed at the screen when a kid is dribbling the ball and running out 20 seconds: Shoot it! I need the point to cover!

BretMyBeachHouse · Jan 25, 2023

danielb927 said:
Totally depends on your perspective.

From the point of view of a team trying to win a game - absolutely agree. If you can't win in regulation, the next best thing is to tie and force OT. If I'm a losing coach, I'm probably happier if my team at least sent the game to OT.

From the point of view of trying to decide how good a team is - different story. Why should I care why the teams are playing 5 extra minutes? All those extra minutes give me are extra data points. If I decide a 1-point regulation win is worth more than a 10-point OT win, I'm implicitly deciding that OT "means less".

But why should it mean less? If you believe in "clutchness", wouldn't it mean even more? And why stop at OT - should the last 5:00 of the game be treated differently too? If a team loses by 2, did they play better if they had the game tied with 5:00 to go and let it slip away, or if they were down 10 and clawed almost all the way back?

Most systems (as far as I know) don't try to answer this - except for "garbage time", they treat the first and last possession of the game as data points with equal importance. I'm not saying that's necessarily the best way, but I don't know that anyone has a system so far that can quantify "importance of a possession" in a way that adds to the predictive power of the system.

I liked where you went with this at my first glance. But then I reconsidered. The ratings are basically a means to predict how a team matches up with another team. presumably, that's in a 40 minute game which is about 94% of the time. So the reason to not use that overtime period is that the team is not really the forty minute team. Teams with less depth are going to be more exposed then. Players may foul out. Etc. So you're dinging a team for something that really isn't important in the vast majority of circumstances.

Bbuck21 · Jan 25, 2023

danielb927 said:
Totally depends on your perspective.

From the point of view of a team trying to win a game - absolutely agree. If you can't win in regulation, the next best thing is to tie and force OT. If I'm a losing coach, I'm probably happier if my team at least sent the game to OT.

From the point of view of trying to decide how good a team is - different story. Why should I care why the teams are playing 5 extra minutes? All those extra minutes give me are extra data points. If I decide a 1-point regulation win is worth more than a 10-point OT win, I'm implicitly deciding that OT "means less".

But why should it mean less? If you believe in "clutchness", wouldn't it mean even more? And why stop at OT - should the last 5:00 of the game be treated differently too? If a team loses by 2, did they play better if they had the game tied with 5:00 to go and let it slip away, or if they were down 10 and clawed almost all the way back?

Most systems (as far as I know) don't try to answer this - except for "garbage time", they treat the first and last possession of the game as data points with equal importance. I'm not saying that's necessarily the best way, but I don't know that anyone has a system so far that can quantify "importance of a possession" in a way that adds to the predictive power of the system.

Winning in OT is significant. But, if there are going to be metrics, then .... The last 5 minutes of regulation has too many subjective factors. I think an OT win/loss should be considered a 1 point game.

State of Chicago · Jan 25, 2023

BretMyBeachHouse said:
I liked where you went with this at my first glance. But then I reconsidered. The ratings are basically a means to predict how a team matches up with another team. presumably, that's in a 40 minute game which is about 94% of the time. So the reason to not use that overtime period is that the team is not really the forty minute team. Teams with less depth are going to be more exposed then. Players may foul out. Etc. So you're dinging a team for something that really isn't important in the vast majority of circumstances.

OT margin of victory is not as meaningful as regulation.

aaeismacgychel · Jan 25, 2023

State of Chicago said:
OT margin of victory is not as meaningful as regulation.

Interestingly enough, Ken Pomeroy did a study on this very thing, and found out that overtime metrics actually shows slightly better correlation with predictive results to the final 5 minutes of regulation in a tied ballgame. While the study is locked behind a paywall, I'll summarize what it showed:

Garbage time is real:
@10min left: A 23+pt margin renders the final 10min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (i.e. score effects will basically be completely random those final 10minutes and are not predictive of future play)

@5min left: A 15+pt margin renders the final 5min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (In fact a 22+pt margin starts showing negative predictive correlation, i.e. the winning team steps off the gas and allows meaningless buckets to the worse team that will not be repeated in a rematch)

@2min left: A 13+pt margin renders the final 2min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (In fact a 20+pt margin starts showing negative predictive correlation, i.e. the winning team steps off the gas and allows meaningless buckets to the worse team that will not be repeated in a rematch)

Score effects in close games shows decent correlation to predictive success:
@10min left: When margin is between 0-6pts, score effects in the final 10min show a positive correlation of 0.21-0.15 to future success
@5min left: When margin is between 0-6pts, score effects in the final 5min show a positive correlation of 0.15-0.13 to future success
@2min left: When margin is between 0-7pts, score effects in the final 2min show a positive correlation of about 0.13 to future success
In OT: Score effects in the final 5min of OT show a positive correlation of 0.16 to future success.

TLDR: Basically, the numbers (from thousands of games) suggests that overtime is a fairly important indicator and predictor of future performance against that same opponent. In fact it's an even better indicator (albeit slightly) than even the final 5min or 2min of regulation in a tight game. It also shows that 20+pt leads with 10min to go, 15+pt leads with 5min to go, and 13+pt leads with 2min to go can be considered blowouts and predictive algorithms should consider stopping data collection at that point as a predictive indicator.

State of Chicago · Jan 25, 2023

aaeismacgychel said:
Interestingly enough, Ken Pomeroy did a study on this very thing, and found out that overtime metrics actually shows slightly better correlation with predictive results to the final 5 minutes of regulation in a tied ballgame. While the study is locked behind a paywall, I'll summarize what it showed:

Garbage time is real:
@10min left: A 23+pt margin renders the final 10min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (i.e. score effects will basically be completely random those final 10minutes and are not predictive of future play)

@5min left: A 15+pt margin renders the final 5min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (In fact a 22+pt margin starts showing negative predictive correlation, i.e. the winning team steps off the gas and allows meaningless buckets to the worse team that will not be repeated in a rematch)

@2min left: A 13+pt margin renders the final 2min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (In fact a 20+pt margin starts showing negative predictive correlation, i.e. the winning team steps off the gas and allows meaningless buckets to the worse team that will not be repeated in a rematch)

Score effects in close games shows decent correlation to predictive success:
@10min left: When margin is between 0-6pts, score effects in the final 10min show a positive correlation of 0.21-0.15 to future success
@5min left: When margin is between 0-6pts, score effects in the final 5min show a positive correlation of 0.15-0.13 to future success
@2min left: When margin is between 0-7pts, score effects in the final 2min show a positive correlation of about 0.13 to future success
In OT: Score effects in the final 5min of OT show a positive correlation of 0.16 to future success.

TLDR: Basically, the numbers (from thousands of games) suggests that overtime is a fairly important indicator and predictor of future performance against that same opponent. In fact it's an even better indicator (albeit slightly) than even the final 5min or 2min of regulation in a tight game. It also shows that 20+pt leads with 10min to go, 15+pt leads with 5min to go, and 13+pt leads with 2min to go can be considered blowouts and predictive algorithms should consider stopping data collection at that point as a predictive indicator.

Good info. This isn’t comparing regulation to OT though, it’s comparing the final 5 minutes of regulation vs OT, right? What about the first 5 minutes of the game, middle 10, or entire game? Does Ken Pom actually suggest that total overtime minutes are more predictive than total regulation minutes?

aaeismacgychel · Jan 26, 2023

State of Chicago said:
Good info. This isn’t comparing regulation to OT though, it’s comparing the final 5 minutes of regulation vs OT, right? What about the first 5 minutes of the game, middle 10, or entire game? Does Ken Pom actually suggest that total overtime minutes are more predictive than total regulation minutes?

This was part of a study attempting to understand whether the data that comes from the overtime period is statistically important when it comes to predicting future matchups against the same opponent and he found out that the score effects in those 5 minutes of overtime do show predictive behavior of the overall score effects in the future matchup. So in other words, having overtime data is more important to a predictive software than not having that data and as such it should not be omitted.

As for which portions of the games are most relevant, I actually don't believe he's done a full study analyzing the predictive nature of certain portions of games outside of this. One thing I can say is that the season worth of games of data's predictive value is way more important than that of any single game and a single game is more important than any specific time period within a game as we're talking about an order of magnitude more data points. So Kenpom isn't saying that OT is more predictive than the entire game, just that it is predictive in nature of score effects. Hope that clarifies things a bit better

grue2 · Jan 26, 2023

danielb927 said:
Most systems (as far as I know) don't try to answer this - except for "garbage time", they treat the first and last possession of the game as data points with equal importance. I'm not saying that's necessarily the best way, but I don't know that anyone has a system so far that can quantify "importance of a possession" in a way that adds to the predictive power of the system.

I'll throw out a straw man. Garbage time is when one team is ahead by at least 10pts + 2pts/minute left.
1min - up by 12
2min- up by 14
5min - up by 20
10min - up by 30
20min - up by 50

If the score difference drops below the threshold, by more than 4 pts, or stays below the threshold for more than a minute, stop counting it as garbage time.

So where does it break badly? Remember, the goal is to improve the system, not make it perfect.

IMPE ALL STAR · Jan 26, 2023

rtbritt said:
My wife asked why Underwood told them to take the turnover....I explained a little....then announcer says something about first time Illinois has beaten OSU by double digits at home (maybe under BU or something along those lines)....

Wife asks why doesn't Illinois just take a shot instead of the turnover (she thinks it's dumb). I tell her it's more of a respect thing ..."we know we won, so we won't pile on". BUT THEN I told her I agree it is kind of dumb, because the other team is going to for sure take a shot to try and get their points and make the loss closer. and BOOM, it happens and its now only a 9 point win (which in the end, I think it means nothing to the Illini.)

I think we should sub in the bench and let them actually try to score.

The game before a recent game of ours was MSU beating Rutgers handily and RU played all intense defense while msu was trying to run out the clock.

Coaches must think that every point matters and margin victory will be meaningful for ncaa seeding.

I like how some coaches will sub out key players one at a time once the game is in hand. Let the players get an ovation from the fans. But I know that comes across the same way as running up the score.

ChiefIllinois · Jan 26, 2023

IMPE ALL STAR said:
I think we should sub in the bench and let them actually try to score.

The game before a recent game of ours was MSU beating Rutgers handily and RU played all intense defense while msu was trying to run out the clock.

Coaches must think that every point matters and margin victory will be meaningful for ncaa seeding.

I like how some coaches will sub out key players one at a time once the game is in hand. Let the players get an ovation from the fans. But I know that comes across the same way as running up the score.

I do think, for example, our OSU victory looks a lot better if we win 71-57 as opposed to 69-60. Like a lot better, even though if you watched the game you’d realize we pretty handily won that game.

danielb927 · Jan 26, 2023

aaeismacgychel said:
Interestingly enough, Ken Pomeroy did a study on this very thing, and found out that overtime metrics actually shows slightly better correlation with predictive results to the final 5 minutes of regulation in a tied ballgame. While the study is locked behind a paywall, I'll summarize what it showed:

Garbage time is real:
@10min left: A 23+pt margin renders the final 10min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (i.e. score effects will basically be completely random those final 10minutes and are not predictive of future play)

@5min left: A 15+pt margin renders the final 5min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (In fact a 22+pt margin starts showing negative predictive correlation, i.e. the winning team steps off the gas and allows meaningless buckets to the worse team that will not be repeated in a rematch)

@2min left: A 13+pt margin renders the final 2min meaningless from a predictive standpoint (In fact a 20+pt margin starts showing negative predictive correlation, i.e. the winning team steps off the gas and allows meaningless buckets to the worse team that will not be repeated in a rematch)

Score effects in close games shows decent correlation to predictive success:
@10min left: When margin is between 0-6pts, score effects in the final 10min show a positive correlation of 0.21-0.15 to future success
@5min left: When margin is between 0-6pts, score effects in the final 5min show a positive correlation of 0.15-0.13 to future success
@2min left: When margin is between 0-7pts, score effects in the final 2min show a positive correlation of about 0.13 to future success
In OT: Score effects in the final 5min of OT show a positive correlation of 0.16 to future success.

TLDR: Basically, the numbers (from thousands of games) suggests that overtime is a fairly important indicator and predictor of future performance against that same opponent. In fact it's an even better indicator (albeit slightly) than even the final 5min or 2min of regulation in a tight game. It also shows that 20+pt leads with 10min to go, 15+pt leads with 5min to go, and 13+pt leads with 2min to go can be considered blowouts and predictive algorithms should consider stopping data collection at that point as a predictive indicator.

Thanks for sharing, that's really cool & I hadn't seen it!

It makes sense to me that OT would matter. Yes, it's extra time and so there's a little bit more fatigue and foul trouble than your average last 5 minutes of regulation. But on aggregate I doubt that's a huge issue since you'd otherwise be playing your best 5 for most of OT.

danielb927 · Jan 26, 2023

grue2 said:
I'll throw out a straw man. Garbage time is when one team is ahead by at least 10pts + 2pts/minute left.
1min - up by 12
2min- up by 14
5min - up by 20
10min - up by 30
20min - up by 50

If the score difference drops below the threshold, by more than 4 pts, or stays below the threshold for more than a minute, stop counting it as garbage time.

So where does it break badly? Remember, the goal is to improve the system, not make it perfect.

That seems pretty reasonable. I've also heard something like:
- Start with the score difference
- Add 3
- Add1 more if the winning team has the ball
- Square the number

If that is > than the # of seconds left, the game is "over". That one ends up being pretty similar to yours:
1min - up by 11/12
2min - up by 14/15
5min - up by 20/21
10min - up by 27/28
20min - up by 38/39

21ChampaignSt · Jan 26, 2023

danielb927 said:
That seems pretty reasonable. I've also heard something like:
- Start with the score difference
- Add 3
- Add1 more if the winning team has the ball
- Square the number

If that is > than the # of seconds left, the game is "over". That one ends up being pretty similar to yours:
1min - up by 11/12
2min - up by 14/15
5min - up by 20/21
10min - up by 27/28
20min - up by 38/39

Please stop. You're giving me Braggin Rights PTSD.

Illinois 69, Ohio State 60 Postgame

the national

Bbuck21

Iloveorangekoolaid

BRucks

Bbuck21

RML

Battle89

BRucks

Captain 14

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013

STATS GUY

FloridaMan

DJM

BretMyBeachHouse

Bbuck21

State of Chicago

aaeismacgychel

State of Chicago

aaeismacgychel

grue2

IMPE ALL STAR

ChiefIllinois

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013

21ChampaignSt