I wanted to look at what teams have done to be successful against Iowa State's defense this season. I went through their schedule and compiled key team stats for any game in which either (a) their opponent scored 70+ points or (b) their opponent won. There was actually only one game (K-State) in which their opponent scored less than 70 but still won the game. As we see below, teams that score 70+ have a 5-5 record against Iowa State. With them being pretty average offensively for a P5 team (Kenpom #49 offense) this is the number you want to reach to have a shot at beating them. That number may be a little higher for us since (a) we will push pace and (b) we are not a great defensive team ourselves.
As you can see, you don't necessarily need to hit the three to be successful (nor do you have to shoot extremely well overall). Only 1 game here that their opponent shot over 50% and only 2 of the 11 games the opponent hit over 45% of their 3s and 3 of the 11 games the opponent hit over 40% of their threes.
Largely, you have to make your free throws. We have more guys we can send to the FT line with confidence late in the game than they do, and that is a big, big thing in tight games. We have an advantage there (75% to 69% team FT shooting) and that doesn't seem like much of a discrepancy, but we have guys who drag our percentage down (Dain, Ty) who will be replaced by better FT shooters if we're ahead or in the bonus(+) late in the game - Harmon 91% or Goode.
Outside of TCU, teams that score 70 or win are not really killing them on the glass either. In fact, in 5 of these 11 games Iowa State actually outrebounded their opponent.
Then, turnovers. Looks pretty hit or miss. There's no storyline here, either. Obviously, decision-making and quick passes out of their traps is going to be key. I read somewhere that despite them being the #1 defense, they give up one of the highest assist rates in the nation, and this is due to all of the trapping. Their defensive scheme is polar opposite of our own in that they really want to turn you over whereas we don't focus on turning teams over, but rather limiting the three point shot and trying to force mid-range 2 pointers. With Iowa State not having a great half court offense, this nuance of their trapping defense forcing turnovers actually helps them put points on the board in addition to limiting their opponent's useful possessions.
I don't think they have ran into a team anything like us. I've seen Baylor used as a comparison, but we don't play like Baylor with them being more successful from 3 point range, while we're more successful on 2 point shots and getting to the FT line. I think the two huge, giant, swaying factors in this game will be the turnover margin and how well Iowa State shoots the ball.
As you can see, you don't necessarily need to hit the three to be successful (nor do you have to shoot extremely well overall). Only 1 game here that their opponent shot over 50% and only 2 of the 11 games the opponent hit over 45% of their 3s and 3 of the 11 games the opponent hit over 40% of their threes.
Largely, you have to make your free throws. We have more guys we can send to the FT line with confidence late in the game than they do, and that is a big, big thing in tight games. We have an advantage there (75% to 69% team FT shooting) and that doesn't seem like much of a discrepancy, but we have guys who drag our percentage down (Dain, Ty) who will be replaced by better FT shooters if we're ahead or in the bonus(+) late in the game - Harmon 91% or Goode.
Outside of TCU, teams that score 70 or win are not really killing them on the glass either. In fact, in 5 of these 11 games Iowa State actually outrebounded their opponent.
Then, turnovers. Looks pretty hit or miss. There's no storyline here, either. Obviously, decision-making and quick passes out of their traps is going to be key. I read somewhere that despite them being the #1 defense, they give up one of the highest assist rates in the nation, and this is due to all of the trapping. Their defensive scheme is polar opposite of our own in that they really want to turn you over whereas we don't focus on turning teams over, but rather limiting the three point shot and trying to force mid-range 2 pointers. With Iowa State not having a great half court offense, this nuance of their trapping defense forcing turnovers actually helps them put points on the board in addition to limiting their opponent's useful possessions.
I don't think they have ran into a team anything like us. I've seen Baylor used as a comparison, but we don't play like Baylor with them being more successful from 3 point range, while we're more successful on 2 point shots and getting to the FT line. I think the two huge, giant, swaying factors in this game will be the turnover margin and how well Iowa State shoots the ball.
