Wear the blue unis on Tuesday !
Pregame: Illinois vs Nebraska, Tuesday, January 31st, 6:00pm CT, BTN
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altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
If I may be so bold, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Roadwear. Orange or white at home.
Tall order on the NU and Indy wishes, but it should be "when" not "if".
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Per fightingillini.com, it is a 6PM tip on BTN.
There are only two Seasons in the Cornhusker state. Football Season. And waiting for Football Season to start.
Both the Big Red basketball and football programs have still not yet gained traction in the Big Ten after all these years.
But there is one thing that both the Prairie State and Nebraskans do agree on. Completely and fully.
No one likes Iowa.
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
my Hulu + live show's 6:00 pm CT...............I just set my record option.........I really really did..........
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
Sooner or later Nwest has to regress to the mean, don’t they?
and I saw recently that if you get into TJD‘s head , he gets rattled. Don’t remember the team.
Bigtex
- DFW
Take a look at the rest of NW schedule. Tough sledding and compressed schedule after their COVID reschedules. 6-3 to 9-11 is very possible.
630 was the original tipoff, got moved up last week I believe to 6pm - Pru is all over it!
Bigtex
- DFW
NWestern scheudle
1/31 @ iowa
2/2 vs Michigan
2/5 @ wisconsin
2/9 @ OSU
2/12 vs Purdue
2/15 vs Indiana
2/19 vs Iowa
2/23 @ ILLINOIS
2/26 @ Maryland
3/1 vs Penn st
3/5 @ Rutgers
Likely 6 road losses
and 2-3 at home
today 6-3 and quite likely finish conference 8-12
Total AP Men's BB Poll Appearances Summary | College Poll Archive
www.collegepollarchive.com
Tied for 10th all-time
CleaverName
- Chicago but not there anymore
Maybe it's the engineer in me but I have seen this phrase, regress to the mean, from a few different posters and I think that the way it is being used it is a fallacy. When you roll a die or flip a coin over a long enough period of time the actual outcomes should approach the calculated outcomes. But in basketball there is not a specific natural average for a team's winning percentage or three point percentage. Hopefully RJ starts making threes and then his average will rise as a result of this better performance. But it is also possible that he keeps missing shots and his three point percentage stays low or goes even lower. There isn't a magic number for him to revert to... Hopefully he starts making 40-50% of his shots and then you'll hope he does NOT start going back to his season average
The same goes with Northwestern's record. It's tempting to say that usually Northwestern basketball is not very good so they will probably start losing more but I think it's more accurate to say that this year's Northwestern team is playing decently but based on the remaining games to be played they will probably lose more than they will win and their record is going to go down
I hope that makes sense and I think it is more than just semantics. Hopefully our players gel and we win every game for the rest of the year and don't play to our current average, there is no preset number of games that we are destined to win based on our current average (and hopefully Michigan loses the rest of their games because their current average doesn't mean they are going to win 50% of the rest)
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
You are right. I have a long list of grad stats courses at UIUC as well as at another major (lesser) university, and 12 years in R&D for a company that develops standardized tests for various types of psychiatrists, psychologists, etc and I throw around that phrase just like everyone else does.
If you consider the mean of any team stat up to a particular point in time and project that onto the next game, well, good luck because by definition, the true mean is only knowable at end of the season. And, any individual performance can be one or more standard deviations about the mean. On the other hand, if every member of the team has made exactly 35% of their three point attempts for every single one of their last 15 games, well then call your bookie.
We just think and hope that Nwest will get worse as the season wears on. Hope, based on past season experiences even though it’s not the same players on their team or that of any of their opponents.
Long winded apology from me for abusing psychometric and measurement best practices.
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danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
There's part of me that wants to disagree with this - there's always some "true mean" of any distribution you sample from. But I think in practice, trying to figure out how good a college 3-point shooter is in a given season, you're probably right. The sample size is too small and correlated to have much confidence on whether a player like "Sophomore RJ Melendez" is really a 25% in-game 3pt shooter performing at average, or a 40% shooter under-performing.
With teams and winning percentage I tend to disagree a bit more. A lot of those factors average out, and the sample size is decent, so stats-based systems are pretty good at differentiating between, say, a top-5 team and a fringe top-25 team. That suggests there is a useful "true mean" that can be separated from "random" effects from game to game.
In the end, it really boils down to an arbitrary choice: what's "random" and what's not? Old-school sports narratives are built on denying randomness: everything can be explained by something, whether it's "clutchness", "tired legs", or "being in a funk". These days a lot of discussions swing towards the other extreme, where everything is ascribed to randomness. In reality the answer is both 1) in between and 2) dependent on what question you really want to ask.
You left out Lieb, Perrin and Nico.
Right, every player/team has a theoretical true talent level for things like 3 point percentage, free throw percentage, etc. Performances from games are just samples from the talent of the player/team.
I don't know about using a years eligibility for a few garbage minutes (Perrin, Nico). If they are not going pro early, and are educationally inclined, the kid may value the extra year of free tuition, and playing time as a senior more. A free masters degree can really help.
Even without the extra degree, college was a lot of fun once the bills were being covered. There was time to both study and socialize (vs. study and work, and work and work and have no free time or spending money). The real world can wait.
Fair warning: I'm not sure college is a good financial investment for the majority of attendees due to the cost, time investment, and eventual value of many degrees. If the cost is covered by doing something you'd do for free anyhow ... have at it!
Ok. Serious question here. Me = engineer, used probability distribution functions as part of work for some number of years. Wife = advanced degree in mathematics, PhD in physics, uses a lot of statistics. Neither of us has heard of "true mean". What is this? Who made this up? Why?
Perrin's redshirt is kaput. Garbage minutes have already happened.
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