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Jan 4th Bracketology - Illinois #4 in first NET ranking
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<blockquote data-quote="Calvin" data-source="post: 1573407" data-attributes="member: 4069"><p>It's trying to solve a vexing problem. I mean, how do you rank teams? How do you understand quality of wins?</p><p></p><p>I'm not a big fan of moving to things like efficiency margin --I guess that makes me old school. It's relatively easy to construct non-intuitive results. Do you really want to reward a 30 point blowout and a 2 point loss, more than the team who played the same two games* and won both by 12?</p><p></p><p>That said, it's not a bad method, and predictive models are, on average, quite robust. And it seems like most experts agree that a hybrid model that uses win/loss and margin are a good compromise. Sagarin's ratings (for a while) used a simple 50-50 blend of "Predictor", based on point spread, and ELO, which was win/loss. </p><p></p><p>As long as they actually play the games, and have auto-bids to the tourney for winning games, everyone has a clear path to a championship regardless of margins. Still, we all enjoy seeing our teams fight for a good seed, and have good match-ups in the tourney.</p><p></p><p></p><p>*depends on the statistical model, but I'm assuming a simplified case.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Calvin, post: 1573407, member: 4069"] It's trying to solve a vexing problem. I mean, how do you rank teams? How do you understand quality of wins? I'm not a big fan of moving to things like efficiency margin --I guess that makes me old school. It's relatively easy to construct non-intuitive results. Do you really want to reward a 30 point blowout and a 2 point loss, more than the team who played the same two games* and won both by 12? That said, it's not a bad method, and predictive models are, on average, quite robust. And it seems like most experts agree that a hybrid model that uses win/loss and margin are a good compromise. Sagarin's ratings (for a while) used a simple 50-50 blend of "Predictor", based on point spread, and ELO, which was win/loss. As long as they actually play the games, and have auto-bids to the tourney for winning games, everyone has a clear path to a championship regardless of margins. Still, we all enjoy seeing our teams fight for a good seed, and have good match-ups in the tourney. *depends on the statistical model, but I'm assuming a simplified case. [/QUOTE]
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Jan 4th Bracketology - Illinois #4 in first NET ranking
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