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NCAA Tournament Canceled
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<blockquote data-quote="IlliniReb" data-source="post: 1533914" data-attributes="member: 16012"><p>I’m not a stats guy (barely made it through stats at Altgeld <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" />). But found this interesting:</p><p></p><p>It is discussed by Alex Tabarrok at <a href="https://disq.us/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmarginalrevolution.com%2F%3AomQ9KaTyIqMVSoZCYCYzy9TsfGU&cuid=5807423" target="_blank">https://marginalrevolution....</a> in a March 12 blog entry</p><p></p><p>"Now here is the most important point. It’s the size of the group, not the number of carriers that most drives the result. For example, suppose our estimate of the number of carriers if off by a factor of 10–that is instead of 20,000 there are just 2000 carriers in the United States. In this case, the probability of at least one carrier at a big event of 100,000 drops not by a factor of ten but just to 45%. In other words, large events are a bad idea even in scenarios with just a small number of carriers."</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="IlliniReb, post: 1533914, member: 16012"] I’m not a stats guy (barely made it through stats at Altgeld :)). But found this interesting: It is discussed by Alex Tabarrok at [URL='https://disq.us/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmarginalrevolution.com%2F%3AomQ9KaTyIqMVSoZCYCYzy9TsfGU&cuid=5807423']https://marginalrevolution....[/URL] in a March 12 blog entry "Now here is the most important point. It’s the size of the group, not the number of carriers that most drives the result. For example, suppose our estimate of the number of carriers if off by a factor of 10–that is instead of 20,000 there are just 2000 carriers in the United States. In this case, the probability of at least one carrier at a big event of 100,000 drops not by a factor of ten but just to 45%. In other words, large events are a bad idea even in scenarios with just a small number of carriers." [/QUOTE]
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