New football league will compete with NCAA for players
hooraybeer
- Pittsburgh, PA
could see something like this eventually catching on. i think the draw of most college campuses, where these athletes are treated like superstars, is more of a factor than people realize. likewise, the effort needed to "maintain grades" for most P5 conference football and basketball players is overstated. programs can and do guide players to majors depending on their academic abilities, interests and goals. if a player wants to get a great education, they certainly have that option but will need to put in the effort necessary to get there. if a player has a good chance of making it to the league and doesn't really care about the educational aspect of college, they have options as well that require much less effort.
As much as I see this as a good idea in the abstract - something that probably should happen - I question whether it will be viable. How will it make money? Minor league baseball, basketball and hockey are all largely (or almost entirely is many cases) subsidized by the major leagues. The NFL tried its developmental league back in the 90s (WLAF) and decided it wasn't worth it.
The fact is, even if they can attract the best high school players and play a higher level of football than the P5 conferences, no one will care. AAA baseball, IHL hockey, and D-League basketball are all played at a higher level than their college equivalents. And those leagues are all dwarfed by their NCAA competition when it comes to budgets and viewership. If you're not the highest level of a sport, you need some laundry that has significance to people. Even without the best players, the NCAA still has the most significant laundry.
I wonder if the new league's business plan is similar to what many accused the business plans of the ABA, WHA and WFL to be back in the 70s - disrupt the market enough to make the big league buy you out.
The fact is, even if they can attract the best high school players and play a higher level of football than the P5 conferences, no one will care. AAA baseball, IHL hockey, and D-League basketball are all played at a higher level than their college equivalents. And those leagues are all dwarfed by their NCAA competition when it comes to budgets and viewership. If you're not the highest level of a sport, you need some laundry that has significance to people. Even without the best players, the NCAA still has the most significant laundry.
I wonder if the new league's business plan is similar to what many accused the business plans of the ABA, WHA and WFL to be back in the 70s - disrupt the market enough to make the big league buy you out.
The more I think about this, the more I scratch my head.
4 teams of 40 (?) players each is 160 players. Making $50,000 each. That's $8 million right there. They're talking about giving these players substantial benefits, internships, and the like. That plus worker's comp, insurance, and other employment related costs could easily come out to another $4 million. That's before you pay a single coach, ref, vendor or usher. Let alone facilities expenses.
I can't imagine a yearly budget south of $30 million. Where's that money coming from? Ticket sales? Television contracts?
Look at the Conference USA as the current model of the highest level of football nobody cares about. They make about $300-$400k per football game from their various tv outlets. So our new football league has an inventory of 16 regular season games plus, I'd assume, 3 playoff games. That's 19 x $400k = $7.6 million. If you get 20,000 people to show up, paying $20 a ticket for those 19 games, you've got another $7.6 million.
Even if they make what I think are my pretty optimistic numbers, I don't see how you keep a football league afloat on about $15 million in revenue a year.
4 teams of 40 (?) players each is 160 players. Making $50,000 each. That's $8 million right there. They're talking about giving these players substantial benefits, internships, and the like. That plus worker's comp, insurance, and other employment related costs could easily come out to another $4 million. That's before you pay a single coach, ref, vendor or usher. Let alone facilities expenses.
I can't imagine a yearly budget south of $30 million. Where's that money coming from? Ticket sales? Television contracts?
Look at the Conference USA as the current model of the highest level of football nobody cares about. They make about $300-$400k per football game from their various tv outlets. So our new football league has an inventory of 16 regular season games plus, I'd assume, 3 playoff games. That's 19 x $400k = $7.6 million. If you get 20,000 people to show up, paying $20 a ticket for those 19 games, you've got another $7.6 million.
Even if they make what I think are my pretty optimistic numbers, I don't see how you keep a football league afloat on about $15 million in revenue a year.
icengineer
- Southern Illinois
If these kids try this route, and fail, they are done. Amateur status forfeited immediately. No hope of getting to the NFL without the training provided by a college team.
That 50k after taxes will end up being less than their college equivalent when you factor in tuition/educationi, room, board, etc.... I don't see this being a viable option for anyone except those who would have had to go the JC route anyway.
That 50k after taxes will end up being less than their college equivalent when you factor in tuition/educationi, room, board, etc.... I don't see this being a viable option for anyone except those who would have had to go the JC route anyway.
I mean, yeah it could kill NCAA football, but it would take a long time. At least 10-15 years IMO. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but when college football was king in the early 1900's, it took professional football a long time to gain traction. It was actually a disaster for at least 10-15 years. I'm sure someone on here knows more about the beginning of professional football.
But of course the NFL was setup to coincide with college football. This league, on the other hand, wants to replace college football eventually.
Ultimately, money talks. If enough people are ready to invest in it long-term then it can succeed eventually.
But of course the NFL was setup to coincide with college football. This league, on the other hand, wants to replace college football eventually.
Ultimately, money talks. If enough people are ready to invest in it long-term then it can succeed eventually.
What do you mean by fail? For kids who have good grades they could play in this league for a year or two and if they make it to the NFL then great. If they don't then they can still go back to school and have enough money earned to pay for most or maybe all of their college tuition.
There is a reason that no other country in the world has college sports like us. But the culture and history of college football will make it really hard to change.
If I had to guess, I would say kids with good grades, will steer clear of this league. They will take the scholarship, the education for lifetime employment opportunities AND the chance for the NFL.. IOW, the best of both opportunities.
IMHO, This league will get the marginal students who are not interested in school, "prop 48" types who have little inclination to return to school if it did not work out. Perhaps they will get a handful of Five stars, similar to Mudilay (sp?) or Jennings (was he the one who went to Europe?)in B ball, but not enough to be successful.
I do not see this as a long term success, but a short term pain in the butt to NCAA football.
icengineer
- Southern Illinois
Kids who have good grades are going to be smart enough to realize college is the much better option. How much money do you save out of your salary every year? You honestly think these kids are going to have enough money saved after a few years in that league to put themselves through college? I don't think that. There may be some hardship situations where a handful would take that path, but I don't see them getting anything of quality that joe sixpack is going to be willing to pay to see.
The article is right. This could be very disruptive to college football, especially to schools like Illinois. Imagine new teams in Chicago and St Louis. It may not immediately hurt Ohio State or Alabama, but this league will capture the interest of a lot of players.
A few points. (1) Money will not be a problem. They’ll have plenty of investors. (2) They key is their ability to attract players with NFL potential. You can be sure they’ll have coaches with NFL experience. (3) They’ll pitch that they are not eliminating a college education, but are putting the player in control of his decisions, broadening opportunities and providing benefits that the NCAA doesn’t offer. (4) If this league is successful enough to expand to the Midwest, the Big Ten will never be the same conference. The NCAA will have to adapt.
A few points. (1) Money will not be a problem. They’ll have plenty of investors. (2) They key is their ability to attract players with NFL potential. You can be sure they’ll have coaches with NFL experience. (3) They’ll pitch that they are not eliminating a college education, but are putting the player in control of his decisions, broadening opportunities and providing benefits that the NCAA doesn’t offer. (4) If this league is successful enough to expand to the Midwest, the Big Ten will never be the same conference. The NCAA will have to adapt.
i agree, I feel the attraction of the NFL quality players will be the lack of any kind of sham college class load. They wont have to take one test other than a physical. They wont have to take any final exams or be declared ineligible due to academics. i can see this working on some scale and if it catches on it will work on a broad scale and i think other quickly. i think the Beta for this is about 2 years or so.
FT35
- Naperville
Something like this wouldn't kill NCAA football. All it would do is dilute the talent for the top tier teams. It may actually increase parity.
The players are generally interchangeable. Some of the top tier players may opt for this league but there are always going to be kids willing to play for a scholarship.
The players are generally interchangeable. Some of the top tier players may opt for this league but there are always going to be kids willing to play for a scholarship.
I agree, maybe even add a year or two, which goes to my thought of short term pain for NCAA, long term not so much.
FT35
- Naperville
I honestly don't even see short term pain for NCAA football.
There were 128 FBS teams in 2016. If there were around 85 scholarships at each school that equates to around 10,880 FBS players who are on scholarship (not including walk-ons).
If this league takes 140 of those players that hardly puts a dent into the talent pool. Some FCS kids will get a chance to play FBS football.
Expand the league to 16 teams (640 players?) and that's still not a major issue.
That's assuming of course that a league like this gains any traction, which is silly to even think about at this point.
There were 128 FBS teams in 2016. If there were around 85 scholarships at each school that equates to around 10,880 FBS players who are on scholarship (not including walk-ons).
If this league takes 140 of those players that hardly puts a dent into the talent pool. Some FCS kids will get a chance to play FBS football.
Expand the league to 16 teams (640 players?) and that's still not a major issue.
That's assuming of course that a league like this gains any traction, which is silly to even think about at this point.
The Galloping Ghost 77
- Wheaton, IL
Good luck finding a network to air these games on TV. ESPN ratings are already declining, and adding unknown football to their programming certainly won't help. I'm not sure the dollars will be there to sustain this league for very long.
icengineer
- Southern Illinois
I actually just read the entire article. It starts out saying the PPF league is starting next summer. Yet it ends saying they are still looking for investors to get this thing off the ground. It mentions some guys with deep pockets but not a single one has committed to anything having to do with this league. This isn't even close to being a reality at the moment.
There is only one pro football league that has even done remotely well, The Arena Football League. And even that one failed and has been resurrected. We don't see many people making the jump from there to the NFL. Ask anyone you know who somewhat follows Pro Football and they'll almost all know of the rise of Kurt Warner. Ask them to name a 2nd Arena guy who made it to The League and did well. Guarantee you'll get a blank stare.
And only 4 teams, all in Cali? I think the folks in California have already proven that pro football is not real high on their list of things to do in their free time.
Here is what I think the future holds for the PPF, if it even gets off the ground.
http://www.mastersinsportsmanagemen...eagues-which-failed-miserably-or-hilariously/
There is only one pro football league that has even done remotely well, The Arena Football League. And even that one failed and has been resurrected. We don't see many people making the jump from there to the NFL. Ask anyone you know who somewhat follows Pro Football and they'll almost all know of the rise of Kurt Warner. Ask them to name a 2nd Arena guy who made it to The League and did well. Guarantee you'll get a blank stare.
And only 4 teams, all in Cali? I think the folks in California have already proven that pro football is not real high on their list of things to do in their free time.
Here is what I think the future holds for the PPF, if it even gets off the ground.
http://www.mastersinsportsmanagemen...eagues-which-failed-miserably-or-hilariously/
BZuppke
- Plainfield
Count me as one of the skeptics. Where the money will come from is the big issue. Even if you get initial investors to get it started, they are not going to keep feeding cash in if this thing doesn't start producing a return. Add to that - who's going to watch? What network is going to carry the games? College football has great advantages: Loyal fans and alums of schools who will attend games, buy gear and watch on TV, even for teams that don't even win that much (ugh!). How do you create a fan base from scratch? Very challenging. I know I wouldn't invest in this thing even if I could.
I couldn't agree more. You can always get some nut with very deep pockets to provide an initial investment but eventually that goes away if you can't sell enough. Just look at the minor league teams around the country, very few of them have enough fan support to make any kind of relevant money. It sounds like a bankruptcy waiting to happen, especially if you are relying on fan support in a place like California.
I don't.
Far too many entrenched advantages for college football. Who's their target audience, and assuming that person is a college football fan, how are they going to get them to swap out their current passion for this?