World Series 2021: Atlanta Braves v Houston Astros

#5      
Paducah, Ky
tough break on losing Morton ( no pun intended)

He has really blossomed later in life as an ace of their staff......
 
#6      
I’m rooting for the Braves too. Especially rooting for Jorge Soler, one of several Cubs in retrospect it looks like Theo didn’t get enough of a return on.

A fun statistical oddity - if the Braves win it, they’ll be the 9th different franchise to win the WS in 9 years.
 
#8      
Houston, Texas
I don't care either way to be honest. I am getting tired of all the Astros coverage down here, though. I mean, they had Carlos Correa's wife on TV talking about the WS. Seriously?
 
#10      
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
I’m rooting for the Braves too. Especially rooting for Jorge Soler, one of several Cubs in retrospect it looks like Theo didn’t get enough of a return on.

A fun statistical oddity - if the Braves win it, they’ll be the 9th different franchise to win the WS in 9 years.

Taking a quick work break and this had me curious. How unlikely - and thus (IMO), cool - is that?

If all teams had equal odds every year (or even random, uncorrelated odds every year, I think), here would be the percentage odds of having a different champion every season for N seasons in a row:

1635360059568.png


That's only a 25% chance of 9 different champions in 9 years. Of course, we know all teams don't have equal championship odds each year and that those odds are correlated year to year. The correlation is positive -- teams more likely to win one year are usually more likely to win the following year -- which would tend to produce more repeats, and make this even lower.
 
#11      
Paducah, Ky
I would like for Atlanta to win.

I used to like the Astros - back when they had Staub, Wynn (the "Toy Cannon"), and Aspromonte. That was a long time ago.

Now I detest the cheaters.
Wow.....Ken Aspromonte....name outta the past ....3rd baseman if I remember correctly......
 
#13      
I used to like the Astros - back when they had Staub, Wynn (the "Toy Cannon"), and Aspromonte. That was a long time ago.
These guys all played for the Houston Colt .45s. Aspromonte scored the team's first run when they started back in 1962. Wynn, Staub and Joe Morgan began their careers with the team in 1963.
colt45logo.gif
 
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#14      
Taking a quick work break and this had me curious. How unlikely - and thus (IMO), cool - is that?

If all teams had equal odds every year (or even random, uncorrelated odds every year, I think), here would be the percentage odds of having a different champion every season for N seasons in a row:

View attachment 12729

That's only a 25% chance of 9 different champions in 9 years. Of course, we know all teams don't have equal championship odds each year and that those odds are correlated year to year. The correlation is positive -- teams more likely to win one year are usually more likely to win the following year -- which would tend to produce more repeats, and make this even lower.

Nice work!

I think the playoffs are a crap shoot, with teams for all practical purposes having even odds once they get past the Wild Card round.

There’s a further issue of the fact that a roster constructed to win in the regular season isn’t necessarily optimally constructed to win the post season. For example, a deep bullpen isn’t anywhere near as important when your team is getting every third day off. Your top few guys are going to be able to pitch in 67% of your games instead of 50% of your games. So, resources used on the 4th-7th man in the bullpen, which will help you win during the season, are better used on other areas of the team.

The same goes for starting pitchers where your 4th and 5th guys go every 5 or 6 days in the regular season. In the playoffs, your #4 guy will probably only start once or twice during the entire playoffs and you probably won’t even carry the #5 guy at all.

Once you’re in the playoffs, tactical strength - inning to inning and at bat to at bat - becomes more important than strategic strength - series to series, week to week. So guys who can bunt, steal, field well get more valuable, while guys who eat innings or consistently hit .290 get less valuable. The long haul, “it’ll all even out,” law of averages aspect of the regular season goes away and the playoffs become all about the small sample size.

Similarly, the “grind it out” style of offense, working deep into the count and running up number of pitches, doesn’t work as well when the opposing pitching staff has its full range of bullpen and a spare starter available every single game.
 
#15      
I’m rooting for the Braves too. Especially rooting for Jorge Soler, one of several Cubs in retrospect it looks like Theo didn’t get enough of a return on.

A fun statistical oddity - if the Braves win it, they’ll be the 9th different franchise to win the WS in 9 years.
That is slightly incorrect. Boston won in 13 and in 18. You can say the 8 different franchises won over the past 8 years starting with the Giants in 14 if the Braves win this year. Parity in baseball.
 
#16      
That is slightly incorrect. Boston won in 13 and in 18. You can say the 8 different franchises won over the past 8 years starting with the Giants in 14 if the Braves win this year. Parity in baseball.

You’re right. I was misremembering. I thought it was Cardinals in 13 and Red Sox in 11. Had them reversed. It’ll be 8 in 8 if the Braves win.
 
#19      
time to hop on the wife
Mirror image of game 1. Houston doing everything right and the Braves defense has made a lot of unusual mistakes. Back to the Atl for 3 after tomorrow's travel day I guess.
 
#22      
Tennessee
Wow.....Ken Aspromonte....name outta the past ....3rd baseman if I remember correctly......
Actually, Bob Aspromonte (Ken's younger brother). You are right, he did play third base.

And I had forgotten about the Colt .45's.

The team had some real talent but was competing against some excellent teams. This was way before divisions and rounds of playoffs - the World Series was it.
 
#24      
Paducah, Ky
Wow.....they mentioned Ozuna and his legal problems ....Glad we
didn't re-sign him
 
#25      
Aurora, IL
For huge Cub fans like myself, this is interesting.

The Houston Astros trajectory in the 2021 playoffs has matched the Cubs 2016 playoff trajectory EXACTLY.

Divisional Series: WWLW
LCS: WLLWWW
World Series so far: LWLL

And if Game 5 holds, that will match as well. If Houston comes back to win the series, each game will match the exact outcome of the Cubs championship run.

Spooky.