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10 games to go - How will the Illini finish?

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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:21 AM   #1
Dan
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With 10 games to go in the regular season, Illinois' record stands at 15-7, 2-6.

Illinois needs to win 6 of their last 10 to get to the magical 8-10 B1G record which would most likely get them into the NCAA Tournament.

Last 10 games-

Sun, Feb 3____Wisconsin_________2:30pm BTN
Thu, Feb 7____Indiana___________6:00pm ESPN
Sun, Feb 10___at Minnesota______5:00pm BTN
Wed, Feb 13___Purdue____________8:00pm BTN
Sun, Feb 17___at Northwestern___6:30pm BTN
Thu, Feb 21___Penn State________7:15pm BTN
Sun, Feb 24___at Michigan_______TBD
Sat, Mar 2____Nebraska__________TBD
Tue, Mar 5____at Iowa___________6:00pm BTN
Sun, Mar 10___at Ohio State_____TBD


So, how do they do?
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:24 AM   #2
Ransom Stoddard
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I think we only pick up 5 wins--Purdue, NU, PSU, UNL, Iowa.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:26 AM   #3
BrooksTaylorFan
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Must win Wis/Pur/PSU/Neb at home and then beat NW and Iowa on the road. Stealing a win at MSU last night would have been huge, but you can't do anything about it now. I stilll have faith in Groce that he will get us in the tourney. I think we go 6-4 and then win 2 games in the B1G tourney to lock us in.

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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:26 AM   #4
CaptainHindsight
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I think we'll beat Purdue, Penn State and Nebraska at home, lose the rest, and finish 5-13, good for 9th in the B1G.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:31 AM   #5
Cool Hand Luke
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What's frustrating is there's 6 possible wins left on that schedule, hell maybe even 7. And this team could do it. But they could also only win 3.


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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:32 AM   #6
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Why oh why did we have to lose to Purdue and then drop that egg against Northwestern...
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:34 AM   #7
AHSIllini32
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Originally Posted by Cool Hand Luke View Post
What's frustrating is there's 6 possible wins left on that schedule, hell maybe even 7. And this team could do it. But they could also only win 3.

No kidding. With the way Minny's been playing that game looks much less daunting than it did 2-3 weeks ago.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:39 AM   #8
blmillini
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I think we win 5 (Wis, Pur, NW, PSU, Neb) and go to the tourney with a 7-11 conference record.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:41 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Ransom Stoddard View Post
I think we only pick up 5 wins--Purdue, NU, PSU, UNL, Iowa.
That is what I see. And I am not overly confident with these picks.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:45 AM   #10
Botb9
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I see as many as 8 possible wins, and as few as 2. I don't think I can come up with a solid answer for you.

I'm actually curious about what happens after the season now. The B1G tourney. Regardless where we end up, what if we manage to get to the final and give someone like MU or whoever a run for their money in the final?

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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:48 AM   #11
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I'll go w/ 4 wins (Purdue, Penn St, Nebraska, Iowa)
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:57 AM   #12
PGHillini11
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7-3 with losses at Mich, IU, and OSU
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 08:58 AM   #13
pizzaman
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I'll go w/ 4 wins (Purdue, Penn St, Nebraska, Iowa)
I think 4 as well only we upset one team and get upset by another. This team is unpredictable.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:03 AM   #14
IlliniSteve
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4 wins and a bubble burst

I hope they change my mind with a huge win against Wisconsin and Indiana at home.

But then they'll probably go on the road and blow one against Iowa or something...
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:06 AM   #15
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I think 4 as well only we upset one team and get upset by another. This team is unpredictable.
We've actually been pretty predictable in B1G play. Only one win over a team we probably shouldn't have beaten.

Predicting these games objectively, I think we should beat PSU, PU at home (though we haven't beaten PU in the last 8 meetings) and UNL at home. It's hard to see us beating IU, at MN, at UM and at OSU (which will be breathing fire for revenge on us in Columbus). UW could be considered a toss-up game, though we don't match up well with their style of play at all. At NW I'd call another toss-up game. I don't see us winning at Iowa. They're very tough at home and have a deep rotation with good size on the frontline, unlike us.

I'll guess we split the 2 toss-up games, win the aforementioned 3 at home and lose the others. 6-12 final record.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:07 AM   #16
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WIS - W
IND - L
@ MIN - L
PUR - W
@ NW - W
PSU - W
@ MICH - L
NEB - W
@ IOWA - W
@ OSU - L

Will finish 8-10, which will lock us into the NCAA, and will get 1 win in the B1G tourney. Final NCAA Tourney seed - 7.

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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:08 AM   #17
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I predicted 21 wins before the season because I'm an awful person, I'll stick with that but I don't think it's going to happen, I wouldn't put anything over a C note on it anyway.

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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:25 AM   #18
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It's touch n go. I think 6 wins are possible, and the team is responding to Groce. But, in the end, you have to look at our seniors, and believe we're sunk. There's just no explaining BP3's careless play --for !@#$'s sake his NBA hopes were riding on this season. If we had better bench options, I'd put us in the tourney. There's just no where for Groce to go to keep the ship afloat. With 10 to go, put me on record:

Losses:
@Minney
@Mich
@OSU
Indiana

Wins:
Nebraska
Purdue (yes, I know what happened @Purdue)
PSU

Leaving 3 must wins:
Wiscy
@NW
@Iowa

And probably avoid a loss in the opening BTT game. I just don't see it.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:31 AM   #19
HeartofaChampion
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Originally Posted by Calvin View Post
Losses:
@Minney
@Mich
@OSU
Indiana

Wins:
Nebraska
Purdue (yes, I know what happened @Purdue)
PSU

Leaving 3 must wins:
Wiscy
@NW
@Iowa

And probably avoid a loss in the opening BTT game. I just don't see it.
We're thinking along the same lines, Calvin. This team is too inconsistent, not talented enough and the roster too imbalanced to expect 6 wins in the last 10. Really, we could lose all but 2 of these last 10 and of course could theoretically win 6 or 7 of them. Issue is will this team find consistently good play to win 6 or 7. Very hard to see that happening. We could easily lose Sunday, lose at NW again and even get blown out at Iowa, which has been a tough opponent in Iowa City for the likes of UW, IU, MSU, etc. Even at home vs. PU will be a dogfight most likely. We haven't beaten PU in a long time.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:32 AM   #20
Cool Hand Luke
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Originally Posted by Calvin View Post
And probably avoid a loss in the opening BTT game. I just don't see it.
JMO, but I don't think the BTT is going to matter much for any B1G team unless an unexpected team wins it. Either you're in or you're out before the tourney starts.

I think a possible exception, especially for Illinois, is if we finish 7-11 (out) then go on to beat a couple teams like OSU and Indiana.

We have to hope for either 8-10 or 7-11 with a really strong BTT.

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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:48 AM   #21
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WIS - L (cold shooting against good d)
IND - L (we get royally beat in the post)
@MIN - L (not a chance)
PUR - W (redemption?)
@NW - L (won 1 of our last 3 at their place)
PSU - L (typical Illini let down, won only once in last three meetings)
@MICH - L (slaughtered)
NEB - W (we do not cry this year, yah!)
@IOWA - W (I hate Iowa, only for that reason we win)
@OSU - W (somehow we play good against them)

4-6 to close out the B1G season. Same record as last season to finish: 6-12

As you can see, I do not have much faith in our spirit and fight, this team has a losing/defeated mentality in the B1G, plain and simple, they cannot fight in the face of adversity.

I have faith in John Groce to instill toughness in them, just not this season, they will learn from their failure to make the tourney this year and leave it for motivation for next season. If John Groce was on the court playing, I would have a different view and Tracy doesn't have the ability to will his upperclassmen teammates on. We have too many ups and way to many downs. The life of an Illini basketball fan.

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Old Feb 1, 2013, 09:49 AM   #22
Alfonz24
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Originally Posted by Cool Hand Luke View Post
JMO, but I don't think the BTT is going to matter much for any B1G team unless an unexpected team wins it. Either you're in or you're out before the tourney starts.

I think a possible exception, especially for Illinois, is if we finish 7-11 (out) then go on to beat a couple teams like OSU and Indiana.

We have to hope for either 8-10 or 7-11 with a really strong BTT.
I agree with this except at the one win and a very close loss to one of the top BIG teams in the BTT.

But to get to this spot, we need BP3 to be better than average and some production out of the 4. Our star has to carry us like Appling did last night and some chip in from the role players.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 11:06 AM   #23
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I think the question is a very fair one, but I don't care to think this way.
It is like my golf game, when I get focused on the result instead of the process (make a good swing, keep your head down, putt the ball with a smooth stroke not a stab . . . ) everything goes in the toilet. I realize that I am not on the team, but I'm just going to enjoy the process.

What I want to see is getting better. I think we are, but probably not fast enough. I haven't seen an Illinois team get better in February in some years, so if we do start getting better in February this year, I will be happy. If we continue to show no improvement while every other team gets better, I will be disgusted.

So, in that regard, I predict that we get better.
Will that result in making the tournament? I doubt it. I think the hole is too deep. So, I'm reconciled to that and I've moved on in the 5 stages of grief all the way to acceptance.
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Old Feb 1, 2013, 11:18 AM   #24
TownieMatt
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WIS - L
IND - L
@ MIN - L
PUR - W
@ NW - W
PSU - W
@ MICH - L
NEB - W
@ IOWA - W
@ OSU - L

5-5 Should be the goal. Wouldn't be too upset with 4-6. Need to take some momentum into next season somehow.

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Old Feb 1, 2013, 11:22 AM   #25
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Knowing this group we'll probably win only 3-4.

But one of those games will IU or Mich.
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